Tetiana IshchykThe article was originally published on “European Pravda”.
It is worth paying attention to a recent article by professor Huang Jing (黄靖) at Shanghai International Studies University, who studied the consequences for China of the re-election of US President Donald Trump.
The key thesis of this work is that a possible agreement between the US and Russia regarding Ukraine, which Donald Trump seeks to achieve, could lead to an improvement in US-Russian relations, and ultimately, create the prerequisites for the formation of an alliance between the US and Russia against China.
So, because it could bring serious risks to China, settling the war could be risky for Beijing.
It is currently unknown how widespread this point of view is in Chinese expert and government circles, but given that Huang Jing has considerable experience in research on Sino-American relations, has lived in the US for a long time and worked at well-known Western and Chinese universities (including the Brookings Institution , Harvard and Stanford Universities, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy and others), his opinion may reflect the discussions taking place in the Chinese government and expert circles.
Considering this, it should be taken into account by experts when analyzing the logic and actions of Beijing regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war and the possibility of involving China in the Ukrainian peace formula and negotiation process.
Huang Jing agrees that the election of Donald Trump brings new serious risks for China, while he believes that they will not be catastrophic because the Sino-US trade relationship is connected and deeply integrated into the world economy.
He confirmed China’s intentions as “one of the two great powers” to win the strategic competition against the US, including by winning the favor of most of the world (meaning the Global South). It is interesting that Russia is not mentioned among the “two great powers” (世界大国), but its role is important for China in other aspects.
In particular, the biggest problem for China with the arrival of Trump, according to the political scientist, are the conditions for the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian war, as a result of which Russia’s relations with the United States may improve, which will create the prerequisites for the formation of an American-Russian alliance against China.
He calls this scenario “Nixon 2.0”, drawing an analogy with the visit of American President Richard Nixon to China in 1972, as a result of which the US normalized relations with the PRC, was able to drive a wedge between China and the USSR, and gained significant advantages for winning the Cold War against the Soviet Union .
The difference from the events of 50 years ago is that “Nixon 2.0” assumes that the US will now join forces with Russia to confront China.
The author named three necessary conditions for settlement:
a) Russia’s willingness to cooperate (which will be achieved by Trump keeping the occupied Ukrainian lands for Russia and not accepting Ukraine into NATO);
b) Europe’s agreement to a settlement, which will take place if Trump convinces Putin not to expand further westward;
c) resignation of Volodymyr Zelenskyi.
The political scientist believes that after that, Russia and Ukraine will start truce negotiations, and China’s strategic environment will deteriorate, as the United States will begin rapprochement with Russia and even begin a “global strategic turn.”
Another important point is that the author significantly reduces the subjectivity of Ukraine.
This confirms previously recorded signs that China does not consider Ukraine to be an independent player with its own interests. In particular, the political scientist uses the expression “proxy war” (以作人战), draws an analogy between Zelenskyi and the pro-Western leaders of Afghanistan, Vietnam, and South Korea, who were removed from power at one time, and also claims that Zelenskyi’s personnel decisions are coordinated with the West etc.
What conclusions should Ukraine draw from this?
- Regardless of the realism of the described scenario, the logic of thinking of Chinese intellectual circles is worth studying and analyzing, as it can help to understand China’s real, not declared, intentions and predict its future actions.
- It is currently unknown to what extent the described “Nixon 2.0” scenario is widespread in Chinese government circles, which requires further research.
At the same time, even if such a development looks difficult to implement at the moment, its theoretical discussions may strengthen the perception of the Chinese leadership that peace in Ukraine carries potential risks for its interests.
- If this assumption is correct, then it can be predicted that China: a) will not be interested in achieving peace that can normalize US relations with Russia; b) will carefully observe the terms of negotiations; c) will try to prevent the “Nixon 2.0” phenomenon; d) will try not to worsen relations with Russia, so as not to strengthen Moscow’s belief in the need for friendship against China.
The last aspect will reduce the likelihood of actions expected by the Ukrainian government – pressure on Russia or other actions that Russia may perceive as unfriendly.
- In addition, it is not excluded that discussions about sacrificing Ukrainian interests for the sake of an alliance against the main rival – China – may take place in Trump’s circle, so they should be detected in advance and prevent (or reduce) negative consequences for Ukraine.
The article was prepared as part of the “China Power” project of the New Geopolitics Research Network (NGRN)
Authors: Yurii Poita – head of the “China Power” project; Tetiana Ishchyk – Intern at the New Geopolitics Research Network.