Daryna KukharThe U.S. military operation in Venezuela and the abduction of President Nicolás Maduro triggered intense debate among politicians and international experts regarding its legality and its consequences for regional and global security. The views of Japanese politicians and experts provide insight into how Japan, as a key U.S. ally in the Indo-Pacific region, assesses Washington’s actions and how it projects potential U.S. behavior toward China, Japan, Taiwan, and beyond.
Key Findings
- Japanese government officials have commented cautiously on the Venezuela operation. On the one hand, they emphasize the need for a diplomatic settlement and the restoration of democracy and the rule of law. On the other hand, they avoid direct criticism of the United States in their statements, deliberately refraining from explicitly mentioning Washington in order not to damage bilateral relations.
- Opposition political forces have taken a different stance. They criticize the U.S. attack on Venezuela as “lawless rule by force” and “a new form of colonial domination,” warning that such actions could encourage similar behavior by other countries, particularly China. They also criticize the Japanese government for failing to explicitly condemn Washington’s actions.
- Most Japanese experts view the Venezuela operation pessimistically. They fear that the U.S. operation and attempts to reassert dominance in the Western Hemisphere could be interpreted by China and Russia as a signal of a de facto division of global spheres of influence and could legitimize similar Chinese actions toward Taiwan. At the same time, some figures within Japan’s defense community take a more optimistic view, arguing that U.S. behavior has become less predictable for China and therefore potentially deterrent.
Official Position of Tokyo: Calls for Democracy and Avoidance of Criticism of the U.S.
Official representatives of the Japanese government largely distanced themselves from direct commentary on the issue, emphasizing the importance of resolving the situation through diplomatic means, likely in order not to harm relations with Washington.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (高市早苗), without directly mentioning the United States, stated that “Japan will contribute to diplomatic efforts aimed at restoring democracy and stabilizing the situation in Venezuela,” avoiding any reference to U.S. actions.
Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi (茂木敏充) emphasized that “it is important that democracy in Venezuela be restored as soon as possible. Japan respects fundamental values and principles such as the rule of law,” and called for “cooperation within the G7 to ensure the safety of our citizens.”
Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara (木原稔) avoided making a legal assessment of the U.S. attack on Venezuela and the detention of President Maduro, stating at a press conference on January 6, 2025: “I am not in a position to assess the facts in detail.” He added that “the principles of international law, including the UN Charter, should be respected,” clarifying that this was a general statement. He further stressed that Japan is not a direct party to the issue and therefore distanced itself from such questions.
Statements by Opposition Parties: Open Criticism of the U.S.
Leaders of opposition parties critical of the Liberal Democratic Party openly condemned the Venezuela operation and called on the Japanese government to explicitly denounce U.S. actions. They described the attack as “lawless rule by force” and “a new form of colonial domination,” urging Japan to appeal to the international community regarding the importance of the rule of law and compliance with international norms in response to the Trump administration’s actions.
Noting that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (高市早苗) refrained from commenting, Yoshihiko Noda (野田佳彦), leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party, expressed some understanding, stating: “It may be difficult to speak out since we are an ally.” However, he warned that tolerance of such an attack could lead to “similar challenges in Europe and Asia,” adding that Japan should cooperate with other countries and clearly state that “changing the status quo by force is unacceptable and international law must be upheld.”
At a party meeting, Tetsuo Saito (斉藤鉄夫), leader of Komeito, expressed concern that “the order of the international community will be severely shaken.” Tomoko Tamura (田村智子), chairwoman of the Japanese Communist Party, declared: “This is a declaration of a new colonial rule. I strongly urge the government to immediately protest against this lawless rule by force.” Mizuho Fukushima (福島瑞穂), leader of the Social Democratic Party, criticized the government’s response, stating: “Why are they not speaking out? This could lead to the justification of armed attacks.”
Okinawa Governor Denny Tamaki (玉城デニー) criticized the United States for the attack on Venezuela, stating: “We must refrain from using force to change the status quo.” Speaking to reporters at the prefectural office, Tamaki said that criticism of the United States by the international community was “entirely justified.”
A Japanese government official hinted at the difficult position faced by the prime minister, stating: “We responded cautiously so as not to deviate from what we have said so far, while taking into account the necessary distance we must maintain from the United States.”
Expert Commentary: Violations of International Law and a Negative Signal to the World
Japan’s expert community has expressed serious concerns. Analysts argue that the U.S. operation and attempts to reassert dominance in the Western Hemisphere undermine the foundations of international law, may be interpreted by China and Russia as a signal of a de facto division of spheres of influence, could legitimize similar Chinese actions toward Taiwan, and weaken the moral and political authority of the United States to criticize Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or China’s potential actions against Taiwan.
Kazuhiro Maeshima (前嶋和弘), professor of American government and politics at Sophia University, stated that changing the status quo by force is “extremely problematic from the standpoint of international law and a very bad signal for the international community.” He added that this deprives the United States of the ability to criticize Russia over Ukraine or China in the event of an attack on Taiwan, and warned that the U.S. could become deeply entangled in Venezuela as it did in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Yukio Yamashita (山下雄己), former lieutenant general of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force, expressed agreement with Maeshima in an interview with Asahi Shimbun. He argued that by disregarding international law for the sake of the Venezuela operation, the United States loses its moral authority to criticize Russia over Ukraine or China over Taiwan. According to Yamashita, Beijing could argue that major powers have the right to act at their own discretion within their respective regions. Since the U.S. framed its intervention as a fight against drug cartels, China could stage unrest in Taiwan or provoke refugee flows to justify a “humanitarian intervention” or “protection of civilians,” mirroring the American approach.
Yamashita further argued that President Trump’s underlying intention is that major powers should divide the world into zones of influence. If the United States claims Latin America as its “backyard,” Xi Jinping gains an argument that Taiwan is an internal Chinese matter into which the U.S. should not interfere. At the same time, the U.S. demonstrated its willingness to use force even in areas where China seeks to entrench its interests, serving both as a warning to Beijing and as a factor lowering the threshold for conflict.
Tsunehira Furuya (古谷経衡), a full member of the Japan PEN Club and director of the Reiwa Institute for Political and Social Studies, emphasized in an editorial in Asahi Shimbun the need for a democratic resolution of the Venezuela crisis through free elections and warned against dividing the world into spheres of influence dominated by major powers.
Some experts draw direct parallels between Venezuela and Taiwan. Kenji Minemura (峯村健司), senior fellow at the Canon Institute for Global Studies, stated on Kansai TV that the attack could lead to a “decapitation operation” targeting Taiwan’s president. He argued that China views East Asia, including Japan and Taiwan, as its sphere of influence and may seek mutual non-interference agreements recognizing respective spheres of influence.
Defense Community: The Venezuela Operation May Deter China
In contrast, some figures within Japan’s defense community assess the U.S. operation in Venezuela more optimistically, viewing it as a demonstration of resolve that could also be applied in defense of allies. From this perspective, it could have a deterrent effect on China, as Washington’s actions have become less predictable and therefore more risky for Beijing.
A defense-sector source interviewed by NGRN, who requested anonymity, noted that the Japanese government expressed respect for fundamental values such as freedom, democracy, and international law through statements by the prime minister, while deliberately refraining from explicitly stating that U.S. actions violated international norms. This approach is viewed as a “shrewd way of protecting Japan’s national interests,” with the priority being to avoid deterioration in relations between U.S. President Donald Trump and Japan’s prime minister.
Although the United States demonstrated its “America First” principle, it also created a precedent for the unexpected use of military force for reasons of self-interest. As a result, uncertainty has increased for China regarding whether the U.S. would intervene in the event of force being used against Taiwan, an uncertainty that could potentially serve as a deterrent to Beijing.
Authors:
Daryna Kukhar is an intern at NGRN, specializing in East Asian Studies (research and draft preparation).
Yurii Poita is Head of the Asia Section at NGRN (project coordination and final editing).