NGRNRemarks by Denys Prokopenko, Commander of the Azov Group of Forces, at the YES international conference in Kyiv, 11 September 2026.
The situation in the Dobropillia sector is extremely difficult. We are holding against three armies. The balance of forces is heavily in the enemy’s favour—approximately six to one in personnel and equipment.
You know what Rubikon is. It has around 1,200 crews. One-third of Rubikon is operating specifically in the Pokrovsk sector.
The enemy has not taken Dobropillia, although it planned to do so during the summer. Its gains have been limited. Following the offensive operations that we conducted together with the general who spoke before me [Apostol], the enemy has still not regained the ground it lost last summer.
We therefore believe that there will be a mobilisation. We are already preparing for one of the possible scenarios. Covert mobilisation is under way. After the elections at the end of September, they may announce full mobilisation. They could mobilise around 600,000 personnel, who may begin appearing at the front before the end of this year.
Their strategic objective is the complete occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. They have failed to accomplish this mission for five years. For them, it is a matter of principle. They will commit the maximum possible resources.
In the Donetsk sector, if we draw a line from Dobropillia towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, they will attempt to capture 11 settlements before the end of the autumn campaign, once the leaves have fallen. Their aim is to establish a bridgehead and break out into operational depth, where they can concentrate their forces. We will not allow this. They have no chance.
According to our data, the enemy was losing 123 personnel per day in this sector in July and 135 per day in August. We believe the summer–autumn campaign will reach its culmination shortly. By October, they will alter their tactics because of the weather: more rain and fog, and fewer hours of daylight. They will attempt to employ heavy armour and tanks to achieve a breakthrough, much as they did last spring. They failed then.
Our deep strikes now reach 40–50 kilometres. Our mid-range strike capability enables us to destroy up to 50 armoured vehicles each day. This prevents the enemy from regrouping effectively and advancing. We expect this pattern to continue.
Part of the reserve formed at the beginning of the summer will be used to tie down our forces and prevent us from regrouping in the north. They will attempt to establish a buffer zone in Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts. They will also continue to terrorise the capital.
Russia is not fighting only against Ukraine. It is fighting against the entire civilised world. This is a challenge to every civilised Western country. This is not simply a war between two armies. It is the terrorisation of civilians, the destruction of civilian infrastructure, the torture of prisoners to death and the forced mobilisation of people in the occupied territories.
Everyone must understand what will happen next if Ukraine ceases to resist. Ukraine is currently giving Europe, the United States and the entire civilised world the most valuable resource of all—time. While we are buying this time, other countries must develop their armed forces in the same way as the Defence Forces of Ukraine and adopt the lessons of our experience. Otherwise, if—God forbid—the war reaches the borders of other countries, the failure to do so may cost their armed forces dearly in blood. That is my principal message.
Question: You said that you expect a major Russian mobilisation, but also that Russia will once again employ armour, as it did last year. Given the strength of Ukraine’s drone capability, why would they do this? Would you not simply destroy them?
They do not assault positions head-on so much as infiltrate into the depth of our defences, towards the launch positions of our unmanned aerial systems. In this way, they draw away part of our forces and advance more quickly. When we detect as many as 200 enemy personnel in a single tactical sector, a considerable quantity of ammunition is required to eliminate them. If their infantry advances across a broad front, supported by a column of more than a thousand vehicles, it will be extremely difficult to stop. Sheer mass increases their chances.
In muddy conditions, infantry find it difficult to move along unpaved roads. Heavy vehicles cope with such terrain more effectively. The Russians are strengthening their electronic warfare capabilities and fitting their armour with specialised counter-drone protection. Destroying an armoured vehicle is not a simple task. When you see footage of tanks being destroyed, it has often taken not two or three drones, but as many as ten to achieve their complete destruction.
They will employ this tactic. We are fighting against three very powerful armies: the 51st, 47th and 48th. They are being prepared for the autumn campaign. We are pre-empting their assaults. At present, we are ready for them.