Igor FedykThe situation at the front
The situation in Bakhmut today is such that the Russians almost completely control the city. At the same time, their offensive activity has significantly decreased. However, this applies mainly to the assault operations of Russian units, but not to artillery, which continues to work quite intensively. It was also confirmed that rotational events are being held among Russian units – the units of Wagner Group are being gradually withdrawn to the rear. Instead, paratroopers and those mobilized from the occupied part of the Luhansk region are brought into the city.
Ukrainian units continue to control the outskirts of Bakhmut in the southwestern part – in the “Aircraft” area and the road to Ivanivske, which is the gateway to Bakhmut. In addition, they continue to advance on the flanks – towards Berkhivka and Klishchiivka.
Even though the Ukrainian forces now control a small part of Bakhmut, the significance of the defense of this area for them does not lose its relevance. Control over the dominant heights in the zone of Berkhivka in the north and Klischiivka in the south creates the conditions for effective fire impact on Russian units in Bakhmut, as well as for complicating their supply with the roads necessary to maintain their positions in and around the city. In addition, Ukrainian units are trying to provide conditions for further offensive operations in the area. So far, the advance of Ukrainian units on the flanks is not enough to encircle Bakhmut, but it is acceptable to seize the initiative and level the front line.
For their part, the Russians are trying to pull up reserves to the flanks to prevent Ukrainian units from advancing quickly there. Thus, they hastily try to close the gaps and hold the frontiers they occupy. However, by relocating troops to Bakhmut from other directions, the Russians thereby weaken them, which creates favorable conditions for Ukrainian forces there for active operations.
In other sectors of the front, the situation remains quite tense, but without significant changes. In the Svatove-Kreminna-Dvorichna section, the front line does not change, but the Russians have a fairly large number of troops there. Intense fighting continues.
The Russians also tried to advance in the Avdiivka area but without success. There are fights in Marinka, however, also without the advance of the Russians. The situation near Vuhledar is without changes. In the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson directions, Ukrainian forces are actively using artillery and long-range systems to destroy Russian air defense systems, bases, and accumulations of manpower. That is, preparations for the upcoming offensive actions are underway. The Zaporizhzhia direction for the Russians looks the most dangerous from the point of view of possible offensive actions of the Ukrainian forces.
Now the Russians have concentrated about 400,000 troops on the territory of Ukraine, of which 150,000-170,000 are on the first lines. Given the stretch of the entire front line, these forces are not enough to deter Ukrainian offensives, which can begin simultaneously in several directions.
G-7 meeting in Japan
The news: In the period from May 19 to 21, the G-7 summit was held in Hiroshima, Japan. In addition to the leaders of the member states of this group – the United States, France, Great Britain, Germany, Japan, Italy, and Canada – President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, as well as the leaders of the so-called Global South attended the meeting as guests. One of the main topics for discussion there was the Russian military aggression against Ukraine.
Why it matters: As a result of the meetings, the G-7 prepared several important resolutions and made serious statements regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war and further support for Ukraine, namely:
– a commitment was reaffirmed to jointly oppose Russia’s aggressive war against Ukraine and continue providing security assistance to Ukraine as long as the Russian-Ukrainian war continues;
– Peace in Ukraine cannot be achieved without the complete and unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops. This must be included in every call for peace;
– Russia must pay for Ukraine’s long-term recovery. The G-7 countries intend to keep Russia’s assets frozen until Moscow compensates for the damage from the war against Ukraine;
The program of financial support for Ukraine for the next year was also supported.
These statements and resolutions refute rumors circulating in some Western media, as well as constantly dispersed by Russian propaganda, that the West is tired of Ukraine and is ready to stop helping it.
Moreover, the refutations were also carried out by specific actions on the part of the summit participants, namely: new military aid packages for Ukraine. Thus, US President Joe Biden announced a new package of military-technical assistance for almost $400 million. The creation of an “aircraft coalition” was discussed with Great Britain, where London plays a leading role. Before the G-7 summit, there was already positive news about the provision of F-16 fighters to Ukraine, and after it, concrete work began in this direction. Also at the summit, the matter of further deliveries of air defense systems to Ukraine was settling.
That is, the G-7 summit showed that, despite all the efforts of Russia to block or at least reduce the military-technical and economic support of Ukraine from its partners, these processes are only intensifying both in quantitative and qualitative terms.
The direct participation of Ukraine in the G-7 summit is also important since this further strengthens its subjectivity in the international arena. Russia has tried and continues trying in every possible way to show that Ukraine is a failed state. However, more than a year of successful opposition to Russian aggression and participation in the G-7 summit suggests otherwise. Ukraine today is a state that forms the world’s agenda.
Raid of the RDK and SR on the Belgorod region
The news: On May 22, the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and the Legion “Freedom of Russia” (SR) carried out a raid on the Belgorod region of Russia and announced that, as part of the creation of a demilitarized zone on the Russian-Ukrainian border, they liberated the settlements of Kozinka and Gora-Podol, and entered Grayvoron. Late in the evening of the same day, information appeared in the Russian media about air attacks on administrative buildings in Belgorod, in particular, on the buildings of the FSB and the Ministry of Internal Affairs, as well as in Grayvoron and Borisovka. As a result, the Russian authorities introduced a regime of counter-terrorist operation (CTO) in the Belgorod region.
On May 23, the CTO regime was canceled, and the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the complete defeat of the RDK and SR, in particular, that 70 intruders were killed, 4 armored combat vehicles, and 5 pickup trucks were destroyed. For their part, the RDK noted that they had no losses.
What they said: The Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine stated that the Ukrainian military was not involved in the recent raid near Belgorod, but did not object to such actions. They also noted that the Russian volunteers, who oppose the Kremlin’s aggression, act independently, and the Ukrainian side only observes the process.
Why it matters: Another raid by Russian volunteers on Russian territory has some important consequences. First, the military. After all, realizing the insecurity of the front-line regions, the Russian authorities will be forced to transfer troops there to strengthen the border. Three border regions – Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk – are about 700 km of the border, for the protection of which the Russians have 17,000 troops there. This is not enough, so they have no other choice but to transfer there the forces involved in the hostilities in eastern Ukraine. And this, in turn, will mean a weakening of the Russian defense on the front line in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
Secondly, the action of the RDK and SR exerts significant psychological pressure on both the Russian leadership and the population and also fuels contradictions and disagreements within Russia.
The third consequence is informational. Although the Ukrainian media from the very morning of May 22 showed video evidence of the raid of the RDK and SR on the Belgorod region, Russian official bodies and the media did not publicly react to these events for a long time. The Kremlin was not ready for such a scenario, chaotically looking for the right position to explain it to the population and trying to minimize the scale of events.
Also, the RDK and SR raid dealt another serious blow to the image of Putin personally, who repeatedly guaranteed that the Russian border is locked. Now not only the inhabitants of the Belgorod region, but the whole world could see that this is not so.
There is also reason to believe that such operations by the RDK and SR will continue, thereby increasing the psychological pressure on the population of the Russian regions bordering Ukraine and inflicting more blows on Putin’s image.
Another attack on a Russian warship in the Black Sea
The news: On May 24, several Russian Telegram channels reported that the Russian reconnaissance ship “Ivan Khurs” (project 18280) was attacked by unknown naval UAVs off the coast of Turkey. On the same day, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that all drones were destroyed, and the ship itself was not damaged. In confirmation of this, the Russian media showed a video of the return of an undamaged ship to the bay of Sevastopol. However, it is impossible to determine for sure from the video whether it is really “Ivan Khurs”. There is also no verified information about the filming date. On board the ship, all identification marks are painted, which makes it impossible to recognize it among ships of the same project.
At the same time, despite the statements of the Russian Ministry of Defense that “Ivan Khurs” destroyed all three naval UAVs, one of them reached the target. Ukraine has released a video that appears to be the same attack on a Russian ship. The footage shows that at least one naval drone hit his hull. In addition, OSINT analysts recorded a rescue ship moving at a speed of 0.8 knots in the area where the “Ivan Khurs” operated, which may be evidence of the damage of the latter.
Why it matters: The reconnaissance ship “Ivan Khurs” is unique in its kind. There are only two reconnaissance ships of this project in Russia. Among its equipment are both reconnaissance and devices for tracking enemy missile defense elements. Also, “Ivan Khurs” is the only one in the Russian Navy, which is declared as a ship for conducting “network-centric warfare”. Only this ship can provide command and control of the troops and coordinate the actions of aviation and ground forces. In fact, “Ivan Khurs” was the “eyes” of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Therefore, even the temporary loss of this ship can have significant consequences for the Russians in the Black Sea.
The Ukrainian military has not officially confirmed its involvement in the attack on “Ivan Khurs”. However, if these were Ukrainian naval drones, then this indicates the possibility of Ukraine to create a real threat to Russian ships in the Black Sea, in particular, those carrying “Kalibr” missiles. After all, the distance at which the drones operated is more than 400 km from Odessa and 140 km from the Bosphorus. It is quite far from the Ukrainian coast. Therefore, it can be assumed that Ukraine can counter Russian warships in the Black Sea at long distances.