Russian-Ukrainian War: A New Operation of Russian Volunteers in Russia and Another Drone Attack on Moscow

The situation at the front

On May 29, during a meeting with the commanders of units performing tasks in the Lyman direction, the commander of Ukrainian Land Forces General Oleksandr Syrskyi, said that the time will soon come when the Ukrainian forces will start active offensive operations. Later, after a meeting of the Headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that the time frame and direction of the movement of the Ukrainian army had already been determined. He confirmed this in an interview for The Wall Street Journal, noting that Ukraine is “going and ready” to launch an offensive operation.

The units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces are undergoing active training and combat coordination. For the offensive operation in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, 12 new brigades equipped with foreign military equipment have been created. Along with them 9 brigades from the “Offensive Guard”, created in the structure of the Ministry of Internal Affairs based on existing combat units of the National Guard, will operate.

At the same time, active strikes by Ukrainian long-range systems and missiles against important Russian army targets began at the front, which indicates the formation of a battlefield for an offensive operation. In particular, last week Ukrainian missile strikes destroyed priority targets in the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia regions.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in recent days there has been a decrease in the number of military clashes along the entire front line. Nevertheless, the situation remains quite tense in some directions and sections.

In Bakhmut, despite the statement of the Russians about complete control over the city, battles are still going on in its southwestern part, where Ukrainian units are still holding the line. The Russians were so exhausted in the battles for Bakhmut that they still have not been able to push the Ukrainian forces back from the southwestern entrance to the city.

The main task of the Ukrainian units in Bakhmut is to hold positions, and on its flanks – to move forward. Over the past week, they managed to expand the zone of control in the northwest and southwest of the city and reach the direct line of sight of the nearest settlements. In the northwestern sector, they were able to push the Russians back from Orikhove-Vasylivka and create conditions for further advance. In the southwestern sector, they managed to occupy the main part of the dominant heights and continue to move further south. At the same time, they put constant fire pressure on Russian positions in the Klischiivka area.

The Russians are trying to counterattack on the flanks and at the same time conduct rotation in Bakhmut itself. The Wagner Group continues to withdraw its units, instead of which motorized rifle and paratrooper units of the Russian army, as well as those from the so-called 1 AK and 2 AK from the “DNR” and “LNR”, are entering the city. At the same time, due to the shortage of free human resources in the Russian command, as well as the fire impact of Ukrainian artillery, this rotation is rather slow.

Another raid of the RDK and SR on the territory of Russia

The news: On the morning of June 1, fighters of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) of the RDK and the Freedom of Russia Legion (SR) announced the second phase of the military operation in the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation. In their reports, the RDK spoke about the fighting near the city of Shebekino and, as evidence, published a video of the destruction of military equipment of the Russian army. The SR reported an attack on a convoy of MLRS Grad of the Russian army.

Russian Telegram channels also reported about the battles in the Shebekino area and the presence of tanks among the “saboteurs”. At the same time, it was noted that to block the activities of the RDK and SR, the Russian military used cannon and rocket artillery, as well as TOS-1 heavy flamethrower systems.

What they said: The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that on the night of June 1, the military of the Ukrainian army, with up to two motorized infantry companies reinforced with tanks, tried to invade Russian territory in the area of Novaya Tavolzhanka and the “Shebekino” international automobile checkpoint.

For its part, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine confirmed a new operation of Russian volunteers in the Belgorod region and noted that the goals of such measures should be clarified with representatives of these structures directly.

And the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danylov noted that this is not the first time that Russians go to defend their country with weapons in their hands and expressed confidence that such actions of Russian volunteers will continue and spread to most of the Russian territory.

Why it matters: The actions of the RDK and SR are a serious challenge for the Kremlin. It simply does not have enough people to protect 700 km of the border, where Russian volunteers operate. Also, the RDK with SR operate there quite flexibly: during the first raid they operated in the Grayvoron area, and during the second – in the Shebekino area. Thus, they are forcing the Kremlin to seriously strengthen the border, that is, to transfer important reserves there from the combat zone in Ukraine. The Russians have about 400,000 personnel in Ukraine, including 30,000 reserves. These reserves are not unlimited, and their transfer to Belgorod and other regions bordering Ukraine creates weaknesses in the Russian defense lines at the front, which in turn is a positive moment in the context of the upcoming Ukrainian offensive operation.

It should also be noted that the RDK raids create problems for the Kremlin in the information space. As with the first RDK and SR raid, Russian propaganda shows confusion and sends conflicting messages. From the reports of the official sources, it is difficult to understand what exactly is happening in the territory where the RDK and SR operate. This generates panic among the local population and confusion among the general Russian audience, which leads to an increase in the level of dissatisfaction with the Russian state authorities.

Drones vs Moscow: episode two

The news: On the morning of May 30, the Russian capital was massively attacked by unknown UAVs. According to eyewitnesses, the southwestern part of Moscow was attacked by about three dozen drones. The Russian Defense Ministry assured that there were only eight of them, five of which were allegedly shot down, and three more lost control due to suppression by electronic warfare. Some of the drones hit residential multi-story buildings.

What they said: The Kremlin said that the drone attack on Moscow and the Moscow region on Tuesday was “Kyiv’s response to Sunday’s effective strikes by the Russian military on one of the decision-making centers.” The Ukrainian authorities denied these accusations. The Office of the President of Ukraine noted that the incident may be because “some of the devices wanted to return to their creators.”

Why it matters: First, the drone attack on Moscow speaks of a serious challenge to Russian air defense. If the Kremlin decides to strengthen the defense of Moscow, it will have to withdraw air defense from the front. They do not have enough systems to not touch the air defense involved in the war against Ukraine. Moreover, the Russians will also need to redeploy fighter jets, because the distance from the border with Ukraine to Moscow is so big that it cannot be covered only by ground-based air defense systems. And this, in turn, will further complicate the conduct of air operations at the front by the Russian Aerospace Forces.

Secondly, the drone attack on Moscow, as well as the raids of the RDK and SR on the territory of Russia, undermine Putin’s prestige as a guarantor of the security of the country and its citizens. At the same time, propaganda cannot silence this problem, since the situation in Moscow is in full view, and information about it is quickly spreading through various social networks and messengers.

It is also important that the blow was delivered to the elite suburbs of Moscow – Rublevka, Barvikha, and other areas. If we take Barvikha residential buildings, then, according to Russian media, this area is home to the Russian Defense Minister, the head of the National Guard, two deputy defense ministers, Prime Minister Mishustin, and the Minister of Finance. That is the drone attack was carried out on the elite of the Putin regime. And now they, like many other residents of the elite Moscow suburbs, may have a very simple question: if ordinary drones fly to Moscow, then what will happen when cruise missiles fly?

In addition, such strikes can bring another split in Russian society. Since, on the one hand, the rich living there will demand more protection for themselves, and on the other hand, ordinary Russian citizens will most likely support such strikes, rather than sympathize and show unity with representatives of the Kremlin elite.

All of the above are vivid examples of the fact that war is not a movement in one direction, but a two-way deadly process. And this process begins to move in the direction from which it came.

Sustained Russian air strikes on Ukraine

The news: Over the past week, Russia has launched massive air strikes on Ukrainian cities almost every day. During the latest attack, 40 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles and 11 Iskander ballistic missiles, as well as 38 Shahed-type kamikaze drones, were used. And on the night of May 28, Russia launched 58 Iranian drones into Ukraine, which is the most massive attack using this weapon.

In most cases, the lion’s share of Russian air attacks falls on Kyiv. In carrying them out, the Russians began to use a combination of tactics: Shahed drones are used at night, and missiles are used in the morning. The purpose of the first strike by kamikaze drones is reconnaissance; the second – by cruise missiles – depletion of air defense; the third – ballistic missiles, which are the most difficult for air defense systems – hitting targets.

Why it matters: With almost daily massive air strikes against Ukraine, the Russians have multiple goals.

First, they are trying to identify weaknesses in the Ukrainian air defense, and their coordinates, to hit them with a second blow before they can change their location. This especially relates to the Patriot air defense system, in particular, its radar and command post.

Secondly, the Russians are trying to force the Ukrainian air defense to use up all their missiles to the maximum, and thereby untie the hands of Russian aviation during the upcoming Ukrainian offensive. Aviation is the only component with which the Russians will try to contain it. In this regard, there is a high probability that the trend of massive attacks using various missiles and drones will continue soon.

The third goal is to continue the banal terror to exhaust the Ukrainians psychologically and force them to put pressure on the leadership of Ukraine and force it to start peace negotiations with Russia. Nevertheless, everything points to the fact that, despite the inconvenience and exhaustion, the Ukrainian population is becoming more hardened and tempered rather than broken.

It should also be noted the consistently effective work of the Ukrainian air defense, which successfully shoots down kamikaze drones, ballistic Iskanders, and hypersonic Kinzhals. In particular, all 11 Iskanders from the last attack were intercepted by Ukrainian air defense systems. This suggests that Ukrainian specialists today have gained quite a wealth of experience in repelling unified, combined, and wave-like air attacks in real combat conditions. And this is against the fact that back on February 27, 2022, the Russian Ministry of Defense proudly reported that the Ukrainian air defense was destroyed, and the Russian Aerospace Forces completely control the airspace of Ukraine.

Igor Fedyk

Head of the South Eastern Europe Section

Igor coordinates the South Eastern Europe Section of the New Geopolitics Research Network. He previously worked as the Head of the Balkan section of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, as well as the Deputy Editor-in-chief of the English-language magazine The Ukrainian Defense Review.

His current research interests are focused on the political, economic and social aspects of the development of the South Eastern Europe and Balkan countries, their interstate and inter-ethnic relations, as well as the relations with third parties (countries not from the region, international organizations), which have an important impact on the situation in the region and in Europe.

He is the author of a number of articles and analyses in various Ukrainian and foreign Media.

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