Igor FedykThe situation at the front
Zaporizhzhia direction
The first phase of the offensive operation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces continues. In the South, the forward Ukrainian units, using separate companies and battalions with minimal involvement of newly formed brigades and the main forces of the reserve, continue offensive operations in several main directions. These are movement from Lobkove, movement from Orihiv towards Tokmak, advance south of Velyka Novosilka, as well as military operations in the area close to Vuhledar. In each direction, the depth of advancement is up to several kilometers. On the recaptured lines, Ukrainian units carry out clean-up operations and consolidation.
Considering the abovementioned directions, it can be assumed that the ultimate goal of the offensive from Orihiv towards Tokmak is the advancement of Ukrainian forces in the direction of Melitopol with the subsequent cutting of the Russian land corridor to Crimea. The advance from Velyka Novosilka can be directed in several directions, and it is possible that in the future it will be part of the offensive towards Mariupol. And the Russians can not determine which of these directions will be the main one.
Based on official reports from the Ukrainian General Staff, we can say that the result of the above-mentioned advance of Ukrainian units in the south is the liberation of 7 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk directions.
At the same time, it is important to note that, despite the use by the Ukrainian command at this stage of units with limited functionality, its Russian vis-a-vis was already forced to put into action its reserves from the 2nd and 3rd lines and from other directions, in particular, from Kherson one, which were released after the Blast of the Kakhovska dam. And this opens up opportunities for Ukrainian forces to destroy them with the use of artillery and long-range systems. In addition, the methodical destruction of logistics in the rear of the Russian group operating in the south of Ukraine continues. These activities are extremely important since both the destruction of reserves and logistics are the key to breaking through further lines of Russian defense.
Bakhmut
Ukrainian forces continue their offensive in the area of Bakhmut. At this stage, their goals and objectives in this area are quite clear: to surround Bakhmut from the north and the south. The advance is carried out in the direction of Berkhivka and Klishchiivka. In particular, the importance of Berkhivka lies in the fact that it is the highest point north of Bakhmut, which allows the Ukrainian units to surround the city from the north.
To deter the Ukrainian advance on the flanks of Bakhmut, the Russian command in recent weeks has relocated serious forces to the area of Berkhivka and Klishchiivka, namely: paratrooper units. That is, at the expense of the army elite, the Russians are trying to stabilize the front near Bakhmut, and then restore the lost positions. However, this did not give them any major advantage. Using artillery, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are currently methodically destroying both enemy manpower and artillery. The latter is very important, because, although the Russians could send a large amount of manpower to stabilize the flanks of Bakhmut, without the support of artillery, this human mass has no chance to hold them.
As for the city itself, the Ukrainian defense forces could take control of all the logistics routes of the Russians, which supply their units in Bakhmut. Being on the predominant heights around the city, the Ukrainian military sees all enemy movements and destroys its personnel and equipment.
It should also be noted that with the departure of the Wagner Group from Bakhmut and its replacement with regular units of the Russian army, the number of contact battles has significantly decreased. Unlike the Wagner mercenaries, the regular units of the Russian army don’t push their manpower forward so actively.
Prigozhin vs Shoigu and Kadyrov
The news: All members of voluntary formations in the zone of the so-called Special military operation (SMO) must conclude a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense by July 1, 2023. The corresponding order was signed by the head of the department, Sergei Shoigu. According to representatives of the Ministry of Defense, “This will give volunteer formations the necessary legal status, create common approaches to organizing comprehensive support and fulfillment of their tasks.”
The Ministry of Defense also explains its actions by the alleged need for the extension of social protection and support measures established by the state to “volunteers” and their families.
The order grants the right to all “volunteers” to enter into individual contracts with either “volunteer detachments” or with the Ministry of Defense as contract servicemen. It also applies to private military companies, including Wagner Group.
Later, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the first contract had been signed with a “volunteer formation” in the “SMO” zone – the special forces detachment “Akhmat” (the main fighting force of Chechnya).
What they said: Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner, made the following comment on the new order of the Russian Ministry of Defense: “The orders and decrees issued by Shoigu apply to employees of the Ministry of Defense and military personnel. PMC Wagner will not sign any contracts with Shoigu… PMC Wagner coordinates its actions with the generals left and right, with unit commanders, has the deepest experience, and is a highly effective structure. Unfortunately, most military units do not have such efficiency, and precisely because Shoigu cannot normally manage military formations… As for subordination, of course, PMC Wagner is completely subordinate to the interests of the Russian Federation and the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. On the territory, according to the orders of Gerasimov and Shoigu, PMC Wagner coordinates all his actions and performs the tasks set by Army General Surovikin.”
Why it matters: From the military point of view. the actions of the Russian Ministry of Defense are quite logical. In the combat zone, all Russian military formations, including those of the Wagner Group, must obey orders and instructions, and act under a single operational command of the one who is primarily responsible for maintaining the so-called SMO, that is, the Russian General Staff, headed by General Gerasimov. It is simply impossible to effectively conduct combat operations simultaneously with “parallel” armies, each of which acts at its discretion. The actions of Wagner and its boss Prigozhin violate the system of operational control and, as a result, reduce the effectiveness of the actions of the Russian group fighting in Ukraine. Therefore, the initiative of the Ministry of Defense is, on the one hand, really good intentions in the interest of improving this command and control system.
Also, by promising to extend the social protection and support measures established by the state to “volunteers” and their family members, the Russian Ministry of Defense wants to show attention and care to those who, due to “patriotic motives”, voluntarily agreed to participate in the war against Ukraine.
On the other hand, Shoigu and Co, by his order, kills two birds with one stone: he demonstrates a desire to improve the quality of command and control, and at the same time tries to tame the Wagner Group and weaken Prigozhin – his main opponent in behind-the-scene wars between Russian hawks (“siloviki”).
In addition, in the war with Prigozhin, Shoigu is now actively using the ex-commander of the 72nd brigade of the Russian Armed Forces, Lieutenant Colonel Roman Venevitin, who was previously detained by Wagner for shelling a PMC’s car. After his release, he recorded a video message in which he accused the Wagner mercenaries of torture, and Prigozhin himself of discrediting the Russian army. In particular, Venevitin said that the military of the Ministry of Defense near Bakhmut was repeatedly harassed by Wagner and was forced to sign contracts with PMC. He also told about the cases when soldiers were kidnapped to exchange them for ammunition. Venevitin also accused the Wagner mercenaries of stealing brigade military equipment.
In one of his latest video messages, Venevitin accused Prigozhin of aiming Ukrainian artillery at Adam Delimkhanov, Ramzan Kadyrov’s right arm. In particular, he publicly accused the Wagner Group boss of collaborating with Ukrainian intelligence. “As I stated earlier, in an attempt to discredit me, Prigozhin’s people let slip the facts of high treason. They have previously cooperated with enemy intelligence, organizing leaks of the location of our units. And here it happened again. According to the information I have, they have now taken revenge on Ramzan Kadyrov, who earlier threatened to reveal the sources of wealth of Prigozhin,” Venevitin said.
Both the order of the Ministry of Defense and the messages by Venevitin (regardless of their authenticity) testify to the high degree of conflict between Shoigu and Prigozhin. The fact that the Chechen fighters were the first to sign the contract with the Ministry of Defense suggests that in the conflict between Shoigu and Prigozhin, they unambiguously took the side of the former. In addition, Putin’s rhetoric at a meeting with the so-called military correspondents (military bloggers) shows that he is also on the side of the Ministry of Defense. Given this, Shoigu is trying to use the strategic advantage for the final reprisal against his opponent.
For Kadyrov, the current situation with Prigozhin and the demonstrative taking of the side of the Ministry of Defense is a chance to return to the Russian political agenda, from which he was once thrown out.
In general, the conflict between Prigozhin and Shoigu, like other similar behind-the-scene wars between the “Kremlin towers”, was conceived from the very beginning to play the hawks off one against another so that their energy would go not to a palace revolution, but to war with each other. So far, this conflict does not pose a direct threat to Putin, so he does not interfere in its resolution. Firstly, this is a war in the second echelon of Russian domestic politics, and secondly, Prigozhin is still effectively balancing the Ministry of Defense and the head of Chechnya, Kadyrov. However, as soon as the situation begins to get out of control and one of the players begins to gain more weight than he is “supposed” to have and thus threatens the Putin regime, the Kremlin will begin to act. By the way, Prigozhin’s mention of Surovikin is a part of this story. Recently, he has already stated that General Mizintsev should become Minister of Defense, and General Surovikin should become Chief of the General Staff. Taking with their help control over the Russian army, and especially over its special structures, such as the Main Directorate of the General Staff (former GRU) and the Special Operations Forces, would help the owner of Wagner gain significant weight and move into the first echelon of Russian politics. And Putin does not need this at all. Therefore, he will continue to keep them on a short leash and play them off one against another.
In any case, the ongoing confrontation between Putin’s hawks, which increases their distrust and intolerance towards each other, is only to the benefit of Ukraine. Therefore, according to tradition, we can say that “the show must go on” and “we support both teams”.