Igor FedykThe situation at the front
The South
The offensive operation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces (UDF) in the South is in its initial stage and resembles the operation of liberation of the right-bank part of the Kherson region when the UDF first weakened the enemy for a certain period and then proceeded to the main phase of the offensive. This stage can be called shaping actions designed to create favorable conditions for delivering the main attack. This is the occupation of advantageous positions, the destruction of enemy logistics, the clearing of minefields, etc. Such actions are carried out with limited forces, while the main ones are waiting for the main attack. In fact, so far all the actions of the UDF are carried out by company groups without the involvement of the main forces and in a strip of 8-10 km from the main line of defense – the so-called Surovikin line. This line of defense has been prepared by the Russians for about six months and provides for minefields, anti-tank pyramids, concrete fortifications, and firing positions.
To counter the shaping actions of the UDF, the Russian command began to use forces and reserves, which are commensurate with stopping a serious full-fledged offensive. Now it takes time for the UDF to destroy the reserves involved by the Russians on the less prepared defense lines. That is why the progress of the UDF at the moment is not fast. At this stage, the key is the destruction of the forces of the enemy and not advance. And this means that shortly, there will be intense fighting without much change in the front line until the Russians start having problems with reserves and ammunition.
The fact that such problems are a very real prospect for the Russians is evidenced by methodical strikes against their rear, the latest example of which was the attack on the Chonhar bridge. With such strikes, the UDF are cutting off the connection between the occupied South of Ukraine and the occupied Crimea, which creates problems both for the supply of the Russian group fighting in the South of Ukraine and for its retreat routes.
Given the experience of the Kherson operation, the process of luring out reserves and destroying Russian logistics could take several weeks. After that, the main stage of the offensive will begin, using the full potential of the brigades preparing to liberate the occupied territory.
Bakhmut
The UDF continue their advance in the northwestern and southwestern directions to the city. Over the past week, Ukrainian units managed to gain a foothold in several positions and ensure full artillery coverage not only of the city itself but also of the entrance to it. This allows not only to evenly destroy the Russian grouping stationed in Bakhmut with artillery fire but also to carry out successful counterattack actions by infantry.
It is also reported about the activation of Ukrainian units in the city itself. They were able to advance along several streets and regain ground in some city blocks. This is a significant advance of the UDF in the city after the Russians announced its “total” capture.
At present, the Russian command, to hold the flanks, has strengthened their grouping fighting in Bakhmut. This, in turn, increases the tasks for the UDF to destroy the enemy and encircle his grouping in the city. It is too early to talk about the latter, but the prerequisites for this are already being outlined.
Luhansk direction
Against the backdrop of heavy fighting in the South, the Russians became more active in the Luhansk direction. Now the most difficult battles are taking place near Bilohorivka. There, the enemy is trying to actively attack with the forces of the “Storm” company and repeats the tactics that were applied near Bakhmut. In particular, the actions of stormtroopers are covered by mechanized and landing troops, as well as artillery and aviation. Among other things, by such actions, the enemy is trying to improve his lines of defense, as well as to force the UDF to strengthen this direction and relocate their reserves from other sectors of the front. However, such actions of the Russians are effectively blocked by the forces of the Ukrainian units defending there and do not affect the operations of the UDF in the South and the Bakhmut area.
Prigozhin’s rebellion
The news: On Friday evening of June 23, the Wagner Group Telegram channels released a video of the consequences of an alleged missile attack on their rear camps. Yevgeny Prigozhin accused the “military leadership of the country” of the strike and promised that “evil would be stopped.” After his words, later that day, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the information on behalf of Prigozhin about the alleged strike on the Wagner Group rear camps was a lie and a provocation. For its part, the National Anti-Terrorist Committee of Russia said that the FSB made a case on the fact of calling for an armed rebellion.
On the morning of June 24, units of the Wagner Group took control of all military facilities in Rostov city, including the airfield and the headquarters of the Southern Military District, and began to move towards Moscow. During their movement, the Wagner columns were attacked by the Aerospace Forces of the Russian Federation. According to Prigozhin, at least three helicopters were destroyed, and some crews refused to carry out the mission.
At the same time, St. Petersburg’s “Wagner Center” was seized by Russian special services, and searches were carried out.
Later, the National Anti-Terrorism Committee of the Russian Federation announced that a counter-terrorist operation (CTO) regime was introduced on the territory of Moscow and the Moscow Region.
In the afternoon of June 24, President Putin delivered his address. In it, he called for unity, consolidation, and responsibility, and also said that the Armed Forces received the necessary order to neutralize the organizers of the armed rebellion. Fortification work began on the distant approaches to Moscow. Highways “Don”, “Ural” and “Crimea” were partially blocked in the Moscow region. The Ministry of Transport of the Moscow Region announced the blocking of the bridge across the Oka River on the Simferopol highway in the Serpukhov region.
Prigozhin refused to lay down his arms. The head of the Wagner Group did not agree with the words of the president that he was committing a betrayal of the motherland. He stated that all the fighters of the Wagner Group “fought and are fighting” and are not going to come to confession “at the request of the president, the FSB, or someone else”.
A column of Wagner Group consisting of 40-50 units of military equipment, including tanks and one MLRS BM-21 “Grad” bypassed Voronezh and continued to follow in the direction of Moscow.
On the evening of June 24, it was reported that Belarusian President Lukashenko, in agreement with Putin, held talks with Prigozhin. That resulted in the latter’s statement that Wagner Group was turning its columns in the opposite direction. After that, information appeared in the Russian media that the criminal case against Prigozhin would be dropped, and the Wagner mercenaries, as members of the “SMO”, would receive legal immunity.
Also, the Russian media admitted that the Russian army lost six helicopters and one aircraft because of the actions of the Wagner Group. According to them, 12 pilots were killed and it is not yet known how many people were in the aircraft.
Why it matters: It should be noted that Prigozhin’s armed rebellion was not unexpected. Much indicated that the situation between him and Defense Minister Shoigu could get just such a development. The only question was when it would happen. It was expected that such a situation would begin to unfold against the background of serious defeats of the Russians during the Ukrainian offensive operation. But, Prigozhin began to act earlier. There may be several explanations for why he began to act at that moment. Prigozhin, who has real information about the situation at the front and the friction between the “Kremlin towers”, could decide that he had enough strength and that there was time to start actions to build up his political weight and take more advantageous positions on the Russian political Olympus. Also, it should not be ruled out that one of the “Kremlin towers” decided to remove the obstinate owner of Wagner and he decided to act proactively.
Although Prigozhin didn’t reach Moscow, his rebellion (once again) showed the weakness of both the Putin regime and Putin himself. The whole world could see that Putin is unable to control the situation in the country. The panic actions of the Russian authorities in response to the Wagner rebellion showed that the entire outer shell of Putin’s stability (“everything is under control”) is nothing more than a soap bubble inflated by propaganda that can burst in any similar contingency. Well, the CSTO once again confirmed that it is nothing more than a caricature showcase.
An interesting description of what happened was provided by Igor Girkin, a Russian terrorist, and former so-called Defense Minister of the “DPR”. In his Telegram channel, he wrote the following:
I am forced to bitterly admit that Russian Federation is one step closer to its final and irreversible demise. As of today, there are two presidents in Russia – the real president Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin and the jester-president for scapegoating, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin… Even if we assume that “That’s it, let’s break up”, then we have to admit that the REVOLUTION HAPPENED SUCCESSFULLY. The second (in fact) person in the state was forcibly removed from power”.
The next few days will show what will happen to Prigozhin. It’s unlikely that after his men have shot down six helicopters and one aircraft, seized the headquarters of the military district, scared the country, and got accused of treason, Prigozhin simply, as if nothing had happened, can return to the rear camps.
Prigozhin’s rebellion and its consequences, which are yet to be felt, in any case, play into the hands of Ukraine, as they further weaken and demoralize the Russian army fighting in Ukraine. However, “a fight of spiders in an internal Russian jar” does not mean that the Russian military grouping in Ukraine will immediately crumble. However, this lays a solid foundation for this kind of process, the speed of which will depend on the effectiveness of actions on the UDF in the front and on what actions Putin’s regime will take after the Prigozhin rebellion.
Recovery of Ukraine
The news: On June 21-22, London hosted the Ukraine Recovery Conference. The event was attended by leaders and representatives of more than 60 states, as well as more than 400 companies from 38 countries.
Details: Among the main results of the conference were the following:
– A major financial support package from the UK, including $3 billion in additional guarantees to unlock World Bank loans and £240 million in bilateral assistance;
– A commitment from the EU, which, if approved by the European Parliament and the Council of Europe, will raise to €50 billion over 4 years in the form of grants and loans;
– $1.3 billion from the United States to modernize the energy system and critical infrastructure of Ukraine;
– Support and commitment from international business and the private sector. In particular, almost 500 companies from 42 countries and 21 sectors worth more than $5.2 trillion have signed the Ukrainian Business Compact, which indicates their intention to support the recovery of Ukraine;
– Measures by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development aimed to raise from €3 billion to €5 billion of new capital from shareholders with UK support, potentially quadrupling this investment.
In total, in the coming years, Ukraine can receive at least $59 billion for recovery.
Why it matters: The Ukraine Recovery Conference sent a clear message that the West supports Ukraine not only during Russian military aggression but will continue doing this in times of peace. In other words, the West believes that Ukraine will survive as a sovereign and independent state and that it will need serious help to rebuild. Without such faith, the holding of the conference and the things voiced at it would not have been possible.
At the same time, the amounts announced at the conference will not cover even 10% of the post-war recovery needs. Therefore, a mechanism is needed to confiscate the frozen assets of Russia, which is being prepared now. With its help, it will be possible to confiscate $500 billion from Russia, which is 2/3 of the amount needed for Ukraine’s recovery.