Igor FedykThe situation at the front
The South
In the southern operational zone, in particular, in the Orikhiv direction, in the Vasylivka area, and the direction from Velyka Novosilka, the Ukrainian Defense Forces (UDF) continue their gradual offensive actions. So far, infantry and artillery units are actively involved, which work against enemy reserves to a depth of 30 km. At the same time, missile and artillery strikes are carried out to a depth of up to 80 km. Their goal is to destroy reserves and important facilities in the depths of the Russian army grouping operating in the South of Ukraine.
The main indicator of the effectiveness of the UDF actions in the southern operational zone is not so much the speed of advance, but the scale of the destruction of the resistance of the Russian defense. It should be recalled, that this defense is multi-echeloned with serious fortifications, minefields, and a large number of troops and weapons. Russian minefields, artillery fire, air activity, and electronic warfare systems are significant obstacles to the rapid advance of the UDF. Until these factors are minimized, any rapid movement of Ukrainian units in the above directions is risky and inexpedient.
Consequently, one of the priority tasks of the UDF in the South is the destruction of the enemy’s artillery and air defense systems, as well as luring out his reserves. The expansion of the front line for the Russians forces them to relocate reserves to the most threatening sectors and open the positions of their artillery, which, after being discovered, are destroyed by the fire of Ukrainian artillery. And this is done quite effectively. This is confirmed by the increase in the indicators of destroyed Russian artillery (over 620 units) and air defense systems (56 units) over the past month. These are peak figures compared to other periods.
By the way, Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, recently quite clearly explained the logic of the UDF actions in the southern operational zone. In his Twitter account, he noted that the war of destruction (which is currently being waged by the UDF) is equal to the war for kilometers. The more the Russian military will be destroyed, the more territories will be liberated.
“At this stage of the counter-offensive, “task number 1” of the Ukrainian Defense Forces is the maximum destruction of manpower, equipment, fuel depots, ammunition, command posts, artillery, and air defense forces of the Russian occupying army.
The last days are especially fruitful. Now the war of annihilation is equal to the war for kilometers. The more destroyed – the more released. The more effective the first, the more the second. We act calmly, balanced, step by step,” Danilov wrote.
Bakhmut
According to the Eastern grouping of Ukrainian forces, up to 50,000 Russian military personnel, more than 300 tanks, and 330 various artillery systems operate in the Bakhmut area. In addition, the Russian command is trying to deploy more additional forces to the north and south of Bakhmut.
However, the UDF continue to hold the initiative in the city area: they fight on the northern flank and advance on the southern flank of the city, where they have partial success.
To the north of Bakhmut, Ukrainian units counterattack in the direction of Orikhovo-Vasylivka and cut off the Russians deep into the occupied territory along the highway to Sloviansk. There are also battles for the dominant heights in Berkhivka.
On the southern flank, Ukrainian forces could dislodge the enemy from two important strongholds on the heights in front of Klishchiivka. The Russians have been stubbornly holding these strongholds for quite a long time, and the battles for them continued for several days. However, the forces of two brigades with the use of armored vehicles managed to dislodge them. Then the lowland begins, where the settlement is located. To defend Klishchiivka the Russians deployed two tank regiments, which will try to make it impossible for Ukrainian units to advance. In addition, for this purpose, the Russians began to use chemical weapons, in particular, lewisite, a military poisonous substance with a skin-blister effect. This is another violation of the rules of war by the Russians.
As for Bakhmut itself, Ukrainian units in it destroy targets using all means of destruction (in particular, Ukrainian snipers operate there) and deprive the Russians of the opportunity to move around the city.
New important US military aid package
The news: On July 7, the United States announced a new $800 million military aid package to Ukraine. It, in particular, includes 32 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles, 32 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers, 31 155mm Howitzers, additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems and HIMARS systems, AIM-7 missiles, Stinger anti-aircraft systems, Javelin and other anti-armor systems and rockets, 105mm artillery rounds and 155mm artillery rounds, including DPICM (a family of US-made artillery or surface-to-surface missile warhead designed to burst into submunitions at an optimum altitude and distance from the desired target for dense area coverage). The latter is especially important for the offensive operation of the UDF.
Details: In December 2022, Ukraine requested the United States to provide it with cluster munitions for MLRS and cannon artillery. However, then Joe Biden’s administration refused to provide them.
In February 2023, Dmytro Kuleba, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister called on the Western allies to provide Ukraine with cluster munitions.
Later it became known that there was some support in the US Congress for Ukraine’s request, but President Biden’s administration was still against it.
Sometime later, four members of the US Congress from the Republican Party called on the US President to send cluster munitions to Ukraine.
On June 30, it became known that the United States was close to agreeing on the provision of cluster munitions to Ukraine, and on June 7, the United States announced their transfer.
The transfer of cluster munitions to Ukraine was opposed by Human Rights Watch, the UN Human Rights Office, as well as Germany.
At the same time, it should be noted that since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russia itself has repeatedly used cluster munitions against Ukrainians, in particular against the civilian population.
What they said: Colin Kahl, the US DoD undersecretary of defense for policy, among the reasons for providing Ukraine with cluster munitions, noted the following:
– A Russian victory will bring disproportionately more harm to civilians in Ukraine than unexploded cluster munitions;
– Created in more than six months fortifications of the Russians are “hard for any military to punch through”;
– Putin has to be shown that his bet on the “long game” will bring him the same failure as his blitzkrieg attempt;
– There has to be created the arms parity with the Russians, who have been using cluster munitions in Ukraine since the beginning of the war. Moreover, unlike DPICM, where the number of unexploded submunitions is below 2.35%, this figure for Russians is 30-40%.
For his part, National Security Adviser to the President of the United States Jake Sullivan stressed that Ukraine had provided the United States with written guarantees that it would use cluster munitions carefully and minimize the risks to civilians if they were used. The guarantees provided by the Ukrainian side, voiced by the Minister of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov, note, in particular, the following:
– Ukraine will use these munitions only for the de-occupation of its internationally recognized territories. These munitions will not be used on the officially recognized territory of Russia;
– Ukraine will not use cluster munitions in urban areas (cities) to avoid risks to the civilian population;
– Cluster munitions will be used only in places of accumulation of the Russian military. They will be used to break through the enemy defenses with minimal risk to the lives of Ukrainian soldiers;
– Ukraine will report to partners on the use of these munitions and their effectiveness to ensure the proper standard of transparent reporting and control.
Why it’s important: The US has donated about 2 million 155mm munitions to Ukraine, but the needs, given the difficulty of penetrating Russian defenses in an offensive, particularly in the South, are significant. Taking into account the gradual decrease in stockpiles of ammunition in Ukraine’s partner countries, the bet on cluster munitions is fully justified. The United States currently has 3 million DPICM munitions. Each 155-mm DPICM projectile replaces a dozen high-explosive ones, which are currently used by the UDF. With the approach of Ukrainian units to the Russian defense lines, which, in particular, consist of numerous trenches and ditches, where a significant amount of manpower is concentrated, cluster munitions will be quite effective in destroying them.
The features of cluster munitions and their importance for the UDF are also noted by foreign experts. Thus, British expert Benjamin Tallis writes the following on his Twitter: “If you’re against sending cluster munitions to Ukraine, then I hope you are for immediately sending fighter jets and helicopters. Otherwise, you support the prolongation of Russia’s abuse and killing of Ukrainian civilians by making it harder for Ukraine’s offensive to break through Russian trenches.”
“To be clear, cluster munitions are nasty things with horrible potential lingering side effects. But they exist for a reason, including clearing trenches and embedded fortifications of enemy soldiers. War is awful and leaves no good choices – but cluster bombs are needed by Ukraine,” he sums up.