Igor FedykThe situation at the front
Over the past week, active hostilities have been observed almost along the entire front line. In some of its directions, the Ukrainian Defense Forces (UDF) continue conducting an offensive, in others – carrying out active defense. The offensive actions of the UDF are being continued in at least three directions: Melitopol, Berdiansk, and Bakhmut. In the Luhansk direction, the UDF are mostly in active defense.
South
The UDF continue conducting their offensive operations in the Melitopol and Berdiansk directions without a clear emphasis on the main direction. The model of their actions remains hybrid. They use both combined-arms integrated operations, based on the US doctrine (but without air support), and the Soviet approach with significant use of artillery, requiring a significant amount of ammunition. As regards the actions of infantry units, they use improved tactics of action by company or battalion-level assault groups, which advance in close cooperation with mine-clearing equipment and field engineers.
As before, such actions aim to force Russians to draw their reserves as actively as possible into the firing range of the Ukrainian firepower. The lure of Russian artillery remains especially important. When Ukrainian units enter a certain sector of the front, the Russians pull artillery to destroy them, thereby revealing their positions and falling into the firing range of Ukrainian artillery. All actions of the Russians are recorded by Ukrainian counter-battery radars, directing artillery fire at them. The luring and destruction of Russian artillery (as well as the reserves of Russians in general) create the conditions for a breakthrough using the main forces, which are now on standby.
The results of the abovementioned actions of the UDF, which have been lasting for a month and a half, are the destruction of a significant amount of equipment and personnel of the Russians, as well as the liberation of as many territories as the Russian troops captured in 6 months. In addition, another confirmation of the success of the UDF’s offensive actions is the dismissal in Russia of Major General Ivan Popov, the commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army, (see below).
Bakhmut
The UDF continue conducting offensive operations north and south of Bakhmut. In the city itself, Russian units are under the fire control of Ukrainian artillery. Ensuring their supply is becoming increasingly difficult.
South of Bakhmut, two commanding heights in the Klishchiivka area, which were long occupied by the Russians, are now controlled by Ukrainian units. They do not enter Klishchiivka itself yet, because this makes no sense. It is enough for them to control the heights over the settlement, as well as over Bakhmut.
To the north of Bakhmut, the UDF attack in the direction of Yagidne which is not far from Berkhivka. The Russians are trying to put pressure on Berkhivka to prevent the Ukrainians from reaching the dominant heights located near it. But without success so far.
In general, Bakhmut continues to play the role of a place where the potential of the Russian army is being successfully utilized.
Luhansk direction
In the Luhansk direction, the Russians have concentrated about 80 thousand of their troops, who are trying to attack in several areas. It is believed that the most combat-ready forces of the Russian military group in Ukraine are located here, the purpose of which is to create problems for the UDF and force the Ukrainian military command to divert attention to this direction and transfer reserves there. This concept has been implemented by the Russians since last year but does not entail significant changes on the front line. The forces and means of the UDF in the Luhansk direction have sufficient potential to restrain the pressure of the Russians.
NATO Summit and Ukraine
The news: On July 11-12, in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius, against the backdrop of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war, another NATO summit was held. As early as September 30 last year, Ukraine sent an application to join the Alliance and expected that at this summit it would receive an answer to it. However, shortly before the summit, on July 8, US President Joseph Biden said that Ukraine was not yet ready to be a member of the Alliance. However, at the time of the summit, 24 NATO member countries officially declared their support for Ukraine’s membership in it.
Details: On July 11, NATO released the text of the summit’s 90-point final communiqué, including important narratives about Ukraine. Among them are the following:
– Russia is the most significant and immediate threat to the security of the allies, as well as peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region;
– Russia bears full responsibility for the illegal, unjustified, and unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine;
– NATO reaffirms the commitment made at the 2008 Bucharest summit that Ukraine will become a member of the Alliance. However, this will become possible when “when all allies agree and all conditions are met”;
– The Alliance has agreed to remove the NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) for Ukraine, but has not yet provided her with an invitation to join;
– The Ukraine-NATO Council is established. Its participants will be equal members and will solve problems on the way of Ukraine’s accession to the Alliance, and the foreign ministers of NATO countries will regularly assess Ukraine’s progress within the framework of an adapted annual national program;
– A multi-year NATO program of practical assistance to Ukraine is created.
Why it matters: For Ukraine, the results of the Vilnius summit have two dimensions – political and practical. As for the first one, it is obvious that today not all countries – primarily the United States and Germany – are ready to invite Ukraine to the Alliance. The motivation of Washington and Berlin is that such a decision could lead to an even greater military escalation on the part of Russia, and, possibly, to the use of nuclear weapons by it.
The wording “when all allies agree and all conditions are met” is rather vague and can turn into an accelerated entry (as was the case with Sweden and Finland), or it can drag on indefinitely. Which of the two scenarios will be implemented will largely depend on the development of the situation at the front, in particular, on the success of the actions of the UDF.
As for the practical dimension, it is important here that the allies agreed on a multi-year assistance program to Ukraine, which will facilitate the transition of its army from Soviet-era standards to NATO standards and help it rebuild the security and defense sector, providing for critical needs. Also at the summit, the leaders of the G-7 countries adopted a “Joint Declaration of Support for Ukraine”, which is open for signing by any country.
Both the abovementioned documents are very important for Ukraine. They provide for the continuation of providing it with air defense systems, long-range systems, armored vehicles, the transformation of the Ukrainian defense industry, cooperation in the field of intelligence and cybersecurity, assistance to the Ukrainian economy and energy, support in holding Russia accountable, etc. It can even be said that these documents are more weighty than the NATO political declaration itself. They are fixing on paper the formula “to support Ukraine as long as it takes.”
Tensions within the Russian military leadership
The news: On July 13, the Russian media published the news that Major General Ivan Popov, the commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army, which is fighting in the south of Ukraine in the Zaporizhzhia region, was removed from service. This happened after his report to the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Army Valery Gerasimov, in which, among other things, he proposed to rotate troops on the first front line.
Later, Popov posted an audio message in a private chat, which was then published by State Duma deputy and ex-deputy commander of the Southern Military District Andrei Gurulev in his telegram channel. In it, Popov addressed his subordinates and said that he was fired for calling things by their proper names in a report to senior officials, harshly identifying problematic issues in the Russian army “in combat work and support.” Following Popov’s words, he drew the attention of the authorities to the “lack of counter-battery combat, artillery reconnaissance stations”, as well as the “mass death and injury” of Russian servicemen from Ukrainian artillery. He also mentioned a certain “senior commander” who “treacherously and meanly beheaded the army at the most difficult moment.”
According to Igor Girkin, a Russian terrorist and the former so-called Minister of Defense of the “DPR”, Popov has positive testimonials as a military leader and officer. Colleagues evaluate Popov as a competent commander and even as a “positive exception to the rule” against the backdrop of the bulk of the current generals.
Why it’s important: On the one hand, the discharge of the commander of the 58th Army indicates a tense situation in the Russian military leadership. Despite the end of the Prigozhin-Shoigu confrontation, the conflicts within the leadership of the Russian Armed Forces continue.
The actions of the Russian military leadership in this situation should also be noted. Instead of solving the problems voiced by subordinates, in particular, by taking measures aimed at increasing the level of security for its soldiers and officers, it is guided by old Soviet methods – it nips any dissent in the bud and neutralizes those who raise problematic issues and question its competence in army management.
On the other hand, Popov’s case is another clear indication that the Ukrainian offensive is going well. Only a really bad state of affairs at the front and disappointing assessments of the further course of hostilities could force a general of such a level to go publicly against his leadership. Popov’s remarks about the loss of the counter-battery battle to the Ukrainians and heavy losses, by the way, once again confirm the information of the Ukrainian General Staff about the high rates of destruction of Russian artillery.
The demarche of the commander of the 58th Army, in general, is evidence that the Russians start exhausting in the South of Ukraine and they have serious problems with reserves for rotations. Consequently, the concept of the Ukrainian military command to maximally destroy the stability of the Russian defense there is starting to pay off.