NGRNAnalytical report by the Razumkov Centre
Authors: Mykola Sungurovskyi, Director, Military Programmes of the Razumkov Centre,Oleksiy Melnyk, Co-Director, Foreign Relations and International Security Programmes of the Razumkov Centre
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has approached yet another critical phase that could become a turning point in the war, or at least determine the further course of events more clearly. It is needles to repeat about the global significance of the issues that Ukrainian defenders are addressing now. Ukraine’s military success will not only determine the fate of our country, but also shape the prospects for security and stability around the world.
It is also important to understand the broader international context, which has a direct impact on the shape, scale and speed of Ukraine’s success. First, it is about the radical changes in the perception of the current Putin regime. While many Western politicians used to believe that Russia should be an integral part of collective security, the longer the conflict continues, the more it becomes clear that it is Russia’s aggressive policy that generates the main danger. Awareness of this fact by other countries determines their positions on the Russia-Ukraine, their measures to deter the aggressor and help Ukraine.
Prospects for a political and diplomatic settlement of the Russia-Ukraine conflict are currently almost non-existent, despite numerous mediation initiatives. One of the key reasons for this is the situation typical of many armed conflicts, when both sides are optimistic about the possibility of achieving a military victory and seek to improve their future negotiating position on the battlefield. Only time will tell whether the calculations of each of the warring parties were reasonable — those based on conclusions about the superiority of their own capabilities over the enemy’s combat potential.
This report attempts to compare Russia’s and Ukraine’s combat capabilities as of July 2023. Given reservations about the completeness and reliability of openly available information, the dynamism and unpredictability of events on the front line, it is clear that the balance of power can change quite quickly. At the same time, there are currently good reasons to believe that the parties are very likely to maintain a relative parity of combat capabilities, suggesting the continuation of the war of attrition with uncertain outcomes.
WAR-OF-ATTRITION_CAPABILITIES_Razumkov-Report_July23