Yurii PoitaChina reacted to the bloody invasion of Israel, which was carried out by the militants of the terrorist organization Hamas from the Gaza Strip, and called the way to “fundamentally” end the conflict. The Chinese side called on “the parties to remain calm, exercise restraint and immediately cease hostilities to protect civilians and avoid further deterioration of the situation,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
But several other conclusions can be drawn from the situation in Israel in relation to China.
First, Hamas’s misinformation that an attack is unlikely because it is not profitable for Hamas has successfully misled Israel, the US and the West, and once again demonstrates that predicting the actions of the other side should not be based solely on the logic of “beneficial/unbeneficial” but must take into account the enemy’s combat capabilities very seriously (especially if they are increasing).
Second, the logic of “beneficial/unbeneficial” can be used as one of the elements of analysis and forecasting, but must necessarily include reliable information about how the opposite party actually sees the situation and what logic about “beneficial/unbeneficial” is guided. The adversary’s perception of the situation can be fundamentally different from how we want to see it.
The third, this is very much in line with the prevailing perception that China will not transfer arms to Russia/launch hostilities against Taiwan because it:
- economically not profitable;
- does not correspond to “the peaceful path of its development and coexistence”;
- does not match Beijing’s current economic initiatives;
- China is not ready yet, etc.
Fourth, in fact, China’s combat capabilities are growing significantly. It takes active actions to increase its energy, product and technological independence. China’s new legislative initiatives are aimed at reducing external and internal vulnerabilities and strengthening population consolidation. Such unprecedented steps, apart from preparing for a war/serious crisis with the West, do not seem to have other good reasons.
Fifth, the current stage of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Iran’s support for Russia and Middle Eastern terrorist organizations demonstrate that the world does not yet have the tools to hold the aggressor countries accountable (if they have significant military potential and nuclear weapons). The toothlessness of the West and international organizations is a clear signal to China that it will not be held accountable for its actions.
Sixth, therefore, if China wants to succeed, it is extremely important for it to be as successful as Hamas, to deceive the whole world, and to make its operation unexpected. And for this you need:
- talk endlessly about peaceful development;
- send numerous economic delegations to the EU;
- conduct 5-year economic planning and publish forecasts of its development.
At the same time, in parallel, covert preparations are being made – technologically, economically, informationally, militarily, pretending that H-Hour is not on time. And this is exactly what China is currently doing.