Mykhailo SamusThe New Strategy Center (Romania), the New Geopolitics Research Network (Ukraine), and the Hudson Institute (USA) presented the study on the deep analysis of the situation in the Black Sea region. The authors of the study are George Scutaru, CEO of the New Strategy Center, Antonia Colibasanu, senior associate expert at the New Strategy Center, Matthew Boyse, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, and Mykhailo Samus, Director of the New Geopolitics Research Network, Ukraine.
The study examines the security challenges in the Black Sea region in the context of the war in Ukraine, as well as possible scenarios for the conflict’s developments. It also presents the actions taken by Russia following the illegal annexation of Crimea for the militarization of the peninsula and the hybrid actions carried out by Russia until the outbreak of the large-scale invasion on February 24, 2024. Blocking off perimeters under the pretext of naval exercises, electronic warfare actions, mines, cyber attacks – all represent tools of the Russian hybrid warfare aimed at affecting the freedom of navigation in the Black Sea.
Ukraine has an asymmetric approach, trying to compensate for the lack of classic capabilities with aerial and naval drones. Despite the progress Ukraine has made in the maritime domain in the last year, the struggle for control over the Black Sea is far from over. The authors emphasize that the Black Sea needs increased attention from the US, NATO, and the EU, given its strategic relevance as a region connecting Europe, Central Asia, the Caucasus, the Caspian Sea, the Middle East, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Balkans. The Black Sea represents connectivity, freedom of navigation, and energy resources. Therefore, the geopolitical implications are significant, and what happens in the Black Sea has global effects.
With the military support for Ukraine decreasing, Russia is ramping up the pressure on the front, producing more ammunition and starting to conquer new territories in Ukraine at a faster pace. Discussions have shown that in case of a victory, Russia will not stop at Ukraine, considering its imperialistic ambitions. In this extremely difficult context, it is necessary for the US to adopt a predictable and long-term strategy in the Black Sea and to enhance cooperation on multiple levels with Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey, as well as with NATO partner countries (Ukraine, Georgia, Republic of Moldova). Additional capabilities for reconnaissance and surveillance, anti-ship systems, drones, are necessary tools to ensure a more effective deterrence and defense policy.
The study can be accessed here: The Battle for the Black Sea is not over