Pavlo KryvenkoIn a significant diplomatic maneuver, Chinese President Xi Jinping is embarking on his first visit to Europe in nearly five years, with stops scheduled in France, Serbia, and Hungary. This tour is not just a series of bilateral meetings but a strategic effort to recalibrate the geopolitical landscape of Europe, aiming to exploit existing fissures within the European Union and weaken the longstanding transatlantic alliance.
Targeting Illiberal Outliers
Xi’s visit to Serbia and Hungary, both countries known for their illiberal governance under President Aleksandar Vučić and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán respectively, highlights China’s interest in nurturing relationships with European states that diverge from the liberal democratic norms championed by the EU. These leaders have often found themselves at odds with Brussels over issues such as media freedom, judicial independence, and immigration policies. By engaging with these outliers, Xi seeks to cement alliances with governments that are more amenable to Chinese influence and less constrained by EU consensus.
Serbia, which is not an EU member but aspires to join, has been a key partner in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The country has received substantial Chinese investments in infrastructure, which have come with fewer strings attached compared to EU funding. Similarly, Hungary has been a vocal supporter of China within the EU, often blocking collective EU statements critical of Beijing’s human rights record. By visiting these nations, Xi is likely to deepen these economic and political ties, potentially encouraging other European countries to consider similar alignments.
Undermining European Unity on Trade
China’s strategy in Europe has long involved fostering divisions among EU member states to dilute the bloc’s collective bargaining power on trade issues. The EU, the world’s largest trading bloc, poses a significant challenge to China’s trade ambitions due to its ability to negotiate as a single entity. By engaging bilaterally with individual countries, particularly those on the periphery or those experiencing economic difficulties, China can offer incentives that make these nations more receptive to its economic model and less supportive of unified EU positions.
France, a key player in the EU and a traditional proponent of European integration, represents a different challenge and opportunity for Xi. President Emmanuel Macron has been a vocal advocate for a more autonomous Europe, particularly in areas such as defense and technology, which aligns with Xi’s vision of a multipolar world order. By cultivating a closer relationship with France, China hopes to find a sympathetic ear for its proposals and to counterbalance the influence of more hawkish EU members.
Weakening Transatlantic Ties
The broader context of Xi’s visit is the ongoing geopolitical competition between China and the United States. The transatlantic alliance, comprising the EU and the United States, has traditionally been a cornerstone of the global liberal order. However, recent years have seen strains in this relationship, exacerbated by differing approaches to China. While the U.S. has taken a more confrontational stance, emphasizing decoupling and containment, the EU has sought a more nuanced approach, balancing competition with cooperation.
Xi’s European tour is calibrated to exploit these differences. By strengthening bilateral ties with key European nations, China aims to pull the EU further away from the U.S. orbit. This is particularly evident in areas such as technology and infrastructure, where European countries are increasingly looking to Chinese companies for investment and partnerships, despite U.S. concerns about security and influence.
Advancing a New World Order
At the core of Xi’s European visit is China’s ambition to reshape the global order. By building a network of allies and partners that are willing to challenge the Western-dominated system, China aims to create a more multipolar world where its influence is commensurate with its economic and military power. Europe, with its economic clout and strategic importance, is a critical battleground in this contest.
Xi Jinping’s visit to Europe is a sophisticated play to drive wedges within the European Union, forge stronger ties with its illiberal members, and erode the unity of the transatlantic alliance. By doing so, China hopes to advance its vision of a new world order, one where it holds a central and unchallenged position. The outcomes of this visit will be closely watched, not only in Europe and the U.S., but around the world, as they could signal a significant shift in the global balance of power.