Pavlo KryvenkoThe British government recently expelled Russian diplomat Maxim Elovik for “malign activity” and revoked diplomatic privileges from two Russian properties in the UK. One property, a “trade” mission perched on a hill in north London, served as a hub for collecting electronic intelligence. The other, a lavish countryside mansion, was a venue for entertaining and subsequently blackmailing potential intelligence sources. This belated move appears to be a direct response to a series of Russian intelligence operations on British soil, including a recent arson attack on a Ukrainian-owned business.
However, this incident is not isolated. Across Europe, Russia’s GRU — its military intelligence agency — has been waging a covert war, employing a variety of operatives and proxies, including gangsters, far-right extremists, and other unsavory elements. The operations range from assassinations, arson, and sabotage to more insidious acts such as using graffiti to stoke social and political tensions. These actions underline a disturbing reality: Russia does not take the EU and NATO seriously, and decision-makers in Moscow remain unfazed by the potential repercussions from these organizations.
A Pattern of Aggression
The expulsion of Maxim Elovik is a significant but overdue reaction to a broader pattern of Russian aggression. The GRU’s operations in Britain, as well as in other European countries, have been marked by a brazen disregard for international norms and an alarming willingness to engage in violent and destructive acts. The 2018 Salisbury poisoning of former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia is a glaring example of Russia’s readiness to conduct lethal operations on foreign soil.
The recent arson attack on a Ukrainian-owned business in the UK further highlights the GRU’s ongoing campaign of intimidation and disruption. This act, part of a larger strategy to undermine and destabilize European countries, underscores Russia’s broader objectives: to project power, sow discord, and challenge the resolve of the EU and NATO.
Proxies and Covert Operations
What makes Russia’s strategy particularly insidious is its use of proxies. By employing criminals, far-right extremists, and other fringe elements, the GRU can carry out operations with a degree of deniability. These proxies serve as force multipliers, enabling Moscow to extend its reach and impact without directly exposing its agents. This method also complicates the task of attribution and retaliation, as it blurs the lines between state-sponsored actions and those of independent actors.
Attacks attributed to these proxies include not only high-profile assassinations but also arson, sabotage, and other forms of covert warfare. For example, incidents of graffiti aimed at inflaming ethnic and political tensions have been linked to Russian operatives. These actions are designed to destabilize societies, erode trust in institutions, and create a climate of fear and uncertainty.
A Blatant Disregard for Consequences
The response from Moscow to these allegations is predictably dismissive. Russia continues to deny involvement in these operations, employing a strategy of obfuscation and outright lies. This approach reflects a calculated gamble: that the EU and NATO, despite their combined economic and military power, will respond with measured, cautious actions rather than decisive, punitive measures.
This bet on the restraint of European and NATO responses is not without basis. Historically, the EU and NATO have struggled to present a unified front against Russian aggression. Political divisions, differing national interests, and the complexities of collective decision-making often result in responses that are more symbolic than substantive. For instance, while sanctions and diplomatic expulsions are tools frequently used, their impact is often limited and fails to deter further aggression.
The Need for a Stronger Response
Russia’s continued provocations and the audacity of its covert operations necessitate a more robust and coordinated response from the EU and NATO. This includes not only strengthening counter-intelligence efforts and improving cybersecurity but also adopting more severe punitive measures that could deter future actions. Economic sanctions need to be more targeted and comprehensive, hitting the key sectors and individuals that support and enable Russia’s intelligence operations.
Additionally, the EU and NATO must work to close the gaps that allow Russian proxies to operate with impunity. This involves tightening border controls, enhancing cooperation among member states’ intelligence agencies, and investing in technology to monitor and counteract these covert activities.
Russia’s blatant disregard for the EU and NATO, coupled with its willingness to kill, destroy property, and lie about its actions, poses a significant threat to European stability and security. The decision-makers in Moscow have calculated that the benefits of their aggressive strategies outweigh the risks posed by potential repercussions from the West. To change this calculus, the EU and NATO must demonstrate that they are not only capable of responding decisively but also willing to do so. Only through a unified and robust approach can they hope to curb Russia’s covert warfare and protect their citizens from future aggression.