Mykhailo SamusMykhailo Samus, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network participated in the eighth edition of the annual Black Sea and Balkans Security Forum which took place on 23-24 May 2024 in Bucharest.
The event was organized by New Strategy Center, a Romanian think tank, with institutional support from the Ministry of National Defence, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and University of Agricultural Sciences, and is co-sponsored by the NATO Public Diplomacy Division. Maintaining its position as one of the largest and best attended security debates in the wider Black Sea region, the Forum of 2024 has provided a working platform for advanced analysis and informed decision-making on the most relevant and challenging topics related to international relations, security studies, and defence matters.
This year’s conference seeked to focus on the emerging signs of “war fatigue”, as the West’s resolve to counter the unjustified and illegal aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine appears to be weakening. The scale and intensity of Russian military onslaught, combined with the consequences of energy and economic crises, plus the uncertainties surrounding the continued flows of Western military and economic assistance to Ukraine clearly demonstrate how much is now at stake for the very existence of Ukraine as a sovereign state and for European security as a whole. With upcoming elections in several EU countries and the United States, the vital Transatlantic link faces considerable challenges. Resisting Russia’s hybrid tactics such as attempts to sow discord among Western allies, to interfere with their democratic political process and to use misinformation on a large scale requires a robust response from our part through improved solidarity and stronger societal resistance mechanisms.
Adding to the complexity of the overall situation, Russia’s military aggression in Ukraine has intensified over the past two years with the help of some unsavoury allies. International outcasts such as Iran and North Korea have been supplying the Russian war machine with vast amounts of military equipment and ammunition, while China’s benevolent neutrality, political backing and burgeoning trade provided Russia with critical resources for its ongoing military adventures.
Although there have been some recent encouraging developments, the Black Sea remains a vulnerable spot on NATO’s Eastern Flank, being a region where the Russian Federation has acted kinetically. This is unsurprising, considering Russia’s historical obsession with controlling it as the gateway to warmer seas. The Black Sea is, in fact, locked in a geostrategic continuum with the Balkans and the Eastern Mediterranean for further advance to the Middle East and North Africa.
Considering the current phase of the conflict in conjunction with the grander strategic calculus, it becomes obvious that continuing support for Ukraine is of paramount importance. Ukraine’s heroic efforts on the battlefield have already written a new page in military history, strategic thinking and tactical innovation applying to modern warfare, with object lessons now being learned by military planners and field commanders worldwide. But the fundamental conclusion to be drawn even at this stage is political and geostrategic. A victorious, prosperous, free and democratic Ukraine, whose place lies among the free nations of the West, would stand as a symbol of Western resolve, of defiance against the myths of authoritarianism and dreams of empire. A Ukrainian victory with honour and dignity perfectly aligns with the interests of that nation but also those of EU and NATO, whose goal is to safeguard European and global security in the face of actors who threaten the current global order and stability.
This year’s Forum aims precisely at identifying the ways and means of achieving that goal. The presence of political leaders, public officials, analysts, scholars, experts, representatives of civil society and non-governmental organizations, and corporate leaders showcase the well-established reputation of the Forum. Our geopolitical reality is defined by a complex web of interconnected threats and opportunities, including the war in Ukraine and its aftermath, the reconstruction effort, newly developing civilian and military technologies, hybrid threats and shared values. The Forum’s 36 panels, scheduled over two days, will offer a propitious setting for thorough analysis by policy professionals in the quest for workable solutions to problems in each of these areas.
Mykhailo Samus has spoken at the panel named “Disruptive Technologies and the War in Ukraine. Lessons for the Future” together with outstanding experts:
BG (Ret.) Hans DAMEN, Member of the International Consultative Board of New Strategy Center, The Netherlands
- Mr. Dragoș TUDORACHE, Chair, Special Committee on Artificial Intelligence in a Digital Age (AIDA), European Parliament, Romania (via VTC)
- General (Ret.) Philip M. BREEDLOVE, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, USA
- Mr. Jean-Marc RICKLI, Head of Global and Emerging Risks, Geneva Centre for Security Policy, Switzerland
- Colonel (ret) Mike “Rabbi” HARASIMOWICZ, Director for Artificial Intelligence Innovations, Lockheed Martin, USA