Igor FedykAfter the UN finally adopted a resolution to commemorate the victims of the 1995 Srebrenica genocide, the degree of tension in Serbia and the Republika Srpska (RS) reached its peak. Every Serbian official considered it their duty to publicly criticize the resolution, the Serbian media traditionally painted an almost apocalyptic picture, and patriotic citizens expressed their protest in street actions. Nevertheless, in Bosnia and Herzegovina itself, they are quite calm about the excessive emotions of their Serbian neighbors. Bosnian experts, journalists, and veterans of the Bosnian war say that the reaction of Belgrade and Banja Luka, on the one hand, is expected, and on the other – it is nothing more than public posturing for the Serbian audience, which will not lead to anything serious, and in particular, to a repetition of the events of 1990 years
The resolution of discord
On May 23, the United Nations approved a resolution establishing July 11 as a day to commemorate the 1995 Srebrenica genocide of more than 8,000 Bosnian Muslims by Bosnian Serbs.The resolution, initiated by Germany and Rwanda and an interregional group of 17 member states, was approved by a simple majority of 84 votes. 19 opposed it, including traditional partners of Serbia – Russia, Belarus, Hungary and China. 68 states abstained.
“This resolution seeks to foster reconciliation, in the present and for the future,” said Germany’s ambassador to the UN Antje Leendertse. The resolution is “of the highest importance for spreading the truth”, said Denis Becirovic, the Bosniak member of Bosnia’s tripartite presidency.
However, Serbia and the RS do not think so. On the eve of the vote, RS President Milorad Dodik said that Banja Luka’s first step in the event of the resolution’s adoption would be a meeting of the government in Srebrenica, from where it would be announced that it is unacceptable, invalid, and impossible to implement. Moreover, he noted that the adoption of the resolution will be the symbolic end of multi-ethnic Bosnia and Herzegovina and that within the next 30 days, the RS will propose an agreement on peaceful separation. “Today, we start with a formal decision to seek a peaceful separation. We will first propose to clarify the political competencies about the entities and to preserve the current model of economic functioning. Over the next few years, we will adapt this model to support the peaceful separation,” Dodik said.
For his part, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic warned the General Assembly on the eve of the vote that the move would “this is something that will just open old wounds, and that will create complete political havoc.”
And already during the UN General Assembly meeting he covered himself with the national flag of Serbia and published his image on his Instagram with the caption: “I am proud of my Serbia.” He also expressed his gratitude to all those who abstained or voted against. “Two-thirds of the planet’s inhabitants were on our side,” Vucic said proudly.
Ana Brnabic, the Speaker of the Serbian Parliament, first stated that the UN lost any sense after the vote, and then added: “We are proud of Aleksandar Vucic! Thank you for not allowing us Serbs and Serbia to be trampled.” Her patriotic urges were also supported by the residents of Belgrade, who organized car races with Serbian national symbols. In addition, church bells rang throughout Serbia in protest against the resolution on Thursday. The Serbian Orthodox Church said these should unite Serbs in “prayers, peace, mutual solidarity and firmness in doing good despite false and unjust accusations, which they face in the UN.”
There will be neither separation…
Despite the excessive emotions in Belgrade and Banja Luka caused by the vote in the UN General Assembly, in particular, the threats of RS separation, all of them are treated quite calmly in Sarajevo. “Dodik’s rhetoric has not changed since he entered politics, that is, for the last 15 years. At any step of Sarajevo – be it regarding membership in NATO or the EU – only one thing can be heard from Banja Luka: we are separating. But the things are still there. First, Dodik knows he won’t do it. Secondly, there is also a High Representative above him, who, like other members of the presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, has the veto right”, – believes Lesia Basic, a Ukrainian who has been living in Sarajevo for 15 years.
Ibrahim Sofic, a journalist at Al Jazeera Balkans based in Sarajevo, shares a similar opinion. “I don’t think that Dodik can go beyond his talk of secession. Yes, he constantly talks about it, but he cannot do it, because he does not have the authority to do so. Moreover, he makes his statements without the support of other political parties in the RS,” says Sofic. In addition, he believes that in case of separation, RS will not survive economically. “It will be poor, completely isolated. Even Serbia, which has its problems, will not need it. The Serbs will say: Solve your problems in your country, that is, in Bosnia,” says Sofic.
The only thing that the political elites in the RS, in particular, Milorad Dodik, are really interested in is not secession, but that Bosnia and Herzegovina does not turn into a real rule-of-law state. Because then they will not only not have the opportunity to say what they want and behave in the same way, but they will also lose the most valuable thing they have – power and money. “RS knows very well that if Bosnia turns into a legal state, they will no longer be able to threaten and manipulate. And if there is no manipulation, they will lose power and money. Serbs talk a lot about the fact that the resolution on Srebrenica will create the political conditions for the liquidation of RS. But nobody in Sarajevo is interested in this. I, as a Bosnian, don’t mind the RS as a part of Bosnia at all. The only thing that needs to be done at the state level is to ensure compliance with the law. So that, for example, the police could arrest everyone. Even Dodik,” says Rufad Basic, a Bosnia war veteran.
In addition, despite the efforts of local politicians and the media to show that the resolution on Srebrenica is something that will radically change the lives of people in Bosnia and Herzegovina and, in particular, in the RS, it is an important, but not crucial issue for them. “Ordinary people here, despite the political games around the UN vote, are really focused on ordinary things like finding good jobs, getting a better salary, getting good health care, and, frankly, finding better jobs outside of Bosnia and outside of the region”, says Ibrahim Sofic. The best example of this, according to him, is the current situation in Srebrenica itself. “You can no longer buy newspapers in Srebrenica because there is not a single newsstand there. You cannot buy fresh meat. There is only one market. It is almost impossible to buy new shoes. Many young people are thinking of leaving there. However, instead of solving all these problems, politicians in the RS continue to play on the feelings of local residents and use them for their political purposes,” he says.
… no big war
Despite the incitement of their Serbian neighbors, in Sarajevo, they do not expect anything serious after the adoption of the resolution. “If the vote had taken place earlier, there would have been much less tension around it. However, even now, I do not think that this vote will lead to any serious consequences”, Ibrahim Sofic believes.
“Do you remember last year’s issue in Kosovo with car license plates? And how they wrote about almost the beginning of the Third World War? And what is the result? – They postponed it for a month and then everything was agreed. It will be the same here,” Lesia Basic.
They also do not believe in Sarajevo in a big war. “There will be no big war. Perhaps, some local clashes as in Kosovo last year. However, we have special and federal police in each canton, which can quickly nip all this in the bud,” Rufad Basic says. Among the reasons for the improbability of a new war is the absence today of the conditions that existed thirty years ago. “In the 1990s, there was a Yugoslav army here, which later turned into an army of the RS. In addition, the latter had serious support from Serbia. Currently, there are no such forces that could inflame the tension that existed in the 1990s,” Ibrahim Sofic is convinced. Serbia’s intervention today is unlikely because in Belgrade they are well aware that their country will then be considered an aggressor with all the consequences for it. In addition, according to Rufad Basic, Sarajevo will have every right to ask for external assistance.
In addition, Bosnian resistance to external aggression will not be the same as it was thirty years ago. “When the war started in Bosnia in 1992, the Bosnian army was more like a hunting community. Now, in addition to the fact that the level of the Bosnian army is completely different, every village in Bosnia has a hunting community, which is essentially a small army. That is, Bosnians drew their conclusions from what happened and are now ready to give an adequate response,” says Lesia Basic.
And what is most important, in Bosnia and Herzegovina there is currently no (necessary for the war) tension between ordinary citizens. “Today, between 10,000 and 15,000 workers go to work from the RS to the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Therefore, in the municipalities of the RS, in which they live, they ask their politicians: Why are you creating problems with our neighbors, where we have work that provides us with the means of subsistence?” Ibrahim Sofic notes. Therefore, he believes that today in the RS no people are willing to take up arms and go fight for “independence” from Sarajevo, or other ideas of Dodik and his political elite. “It is unlikely that ordinary people in the RS have a desire to fight. Of course, some declare that they are ready for war. But most of them are “keyboard warriors” who are not really ready to take up arms,” Sofic concluded.