Yurii PoitaThere are clear signs that NATO (not yet calling China a threat, but only a challenge, or systemic challenges) takes China much more seriously, in particular, the strengthening of the Russian-Chinese military-technical partnership.
In the NATO Washington Summit Declaration, China is recognized for the first time as a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war against Ukraine through its so-called “no limits” partnership and its large-scale support for Russia’s defense industrial base.
At the same time, an explanation of this support is provided – the transfer of dual-use materials, such as weapons components, equipment, and raw materials that serve as inputs for Russia’s defense sector.
It is obvious that the above is a consequence of the serious deterioration of China’s position regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war over the past two years, which many (especially in Europe, and unfortunately in Ukraine) tried to ignore.
I have raised this issue at various events on China since last year – in Singapore, Germany, in many discussions with American and European colleagues – that China is not just supporting the Russian economy and spreading some narratives.
On the contrary, China:
- actually helps the Russian army to wage war;
- made it possible for the Russian army to recover and significantly strengthen over the past two years;
- increases the Russian threat to Europe, which continues to grow.
Unfortunately, a year ago, in most of the discussions in which I participated, this was not taken very seriously – because Chinese aid to Russia was seen from the point of view of economic and semiconductors, but currently we see that the understanding of the Russian-Chinese joint, synergistic and complex threat in the context wars in the European theater of war is improving.
On the other hand, there are problematic aspects of the Washington Declaration that need to be worked on:
First, the Chinese “decisive enabler” is stated as “increases the threat Russia poses to its neighbours and to Euro-Atlantic security”, which means that formally, China, despite the fact that it is actually the only one that feeds the Russian military industy, – is not a threat, but only increases the Russian threat.
In this regard, the toolkit for countering the “amplifier” is much smaller than it would be if China were identified as a “threat”. We already have the consequences, and obviously we will feel them more and more in the future, as China only strengthens its support for Russia, and officially calls NATO’s accusations “fabricated disinformation”.
Secondly, for some reason, the Washington Declaration does not mention the actions of China that were mentioned last year in the Vilnius Summit Communiqué, in particular:
“The PRC employs a broad range of political, economic, and military tools to increase its global footprint and project power, while remaining opaque about its strategy, intentions and military build-up.
The PRC seeks to control key technological and industrial sectors, critical infrastructure, and strategic materials and supply chains.
It uses its economic leverage to create strategic dependencies and enhance its influence”.
The lack of a detailed explanation ot China’s challenge is clearly a disadvantage from the point of view of forming a countermeasure strategy.
Thirdly, (probably the most important) the NATO toolkit for reducing the listed actions of China (according to the Washington Declaration) remains ineffective:
- The deepening strategic partnership between Russia and the PRC and their mutually reinforcing attempts to undercut and reshape the rules-based international order, are a cause for – “profound concern”;
- We call on the PRC, as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council with a particular responsibility to uphold the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, to cease all material and political support to Russia’s war effort. , etc.
It is obvious that “profound concern” and calls to behave “responsibly” will not lead to a change in China’s position (similar and even broader calls were made in last year’s declaration).
Therefore, a preliminary conclusion is that understanding in Europe of the nature and character of threats from China in the context of Russia’s military strengthening is improving, which is positive.
But this understanding: a) is very late; b) is likely to cause colossal opposition from European big business, which makes money on the Chinese market and influences European governments; c) does not have (at least they are not visible) effective measures to influence China in order to force it to change its policy.
It is likely that the ineffectiveness of the actions of NATO and the West in countering China does not go unnoticed in Beijing.
The thesis that “East is rising and West declining” (东方新所洛起，西方新行落) is a key idea in the Chinese leadership (as well as “American skepticism”), and this belief is only getting stronger , and already leads to much more aggressive actions by China.