Darko ObradovicIs Russia encouraging anti-lithium demonstrations in Serbia?
Darko Obradovic, Program Manager of the Center for Strategic Analysis (Serbia)
Ever since the first phase of the development of the underground lithium mine “Jadar” in Western Serbia was announced, the authorities have faced strong resistance from citizens. What looked like a justified concern for the protection of nature and people quickly turned into a debate with exclusive demands for the banning of lithium exploitation. The key question from the point of view of national security refers to the fact that only in Serbia is a ban demanded instead of the improvement of technological and environmental standards. The factor of radical and exclusive demand should be taken as the first factor in identifying the existence of an informational influence operation. There was a manifestation of street dissatisfaction through the blockade of the highway through Belgrade with a strong campaign on social networks. Based on publicly available information, it is very difficult to classify the first phase of mine blocking with certainty in FIMI because there is a very thin limit between the expression of the demands by the newly formed parliamentary parties, which programmatically resemble the European green parties and the activities inspired by foreign actors. After two years of stalling of the “Jadar” project, a very dynamic foreign political development is taking place. On May 23, 2024, the European Union adopts the Law on Critical Raw Materials, which, among other things, adopts the framework for strategic partnerships and the application of its standards outside the EU for all its partners. This EU law is a geopolitical and economic response to the direct consequences of Russian aggression against Ukraine, but also to the growing risk of Chinese action. On July 22, 2024, Serbia signs a Letter of Intent with the EU regarding critical raw materials. This dynamic is crucial in order to analyze the motives of external actors for undertaking FIMI. In his public speeches, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić pointed to at least two involved countries that are fueling civilian obstruction to the lithium mine. Let’s pause for a moment. Content analysis points to a Russian anti-colonial narrative used to mobilize the public against multinational corporations that are Western. The Australian-English company Rio Tino is interested in a lithium mine in Serbia. From the first day of the anti-lithium mining campaign, Telegram channels were put into use that often shared content previously detected as Russian influence operations in the Global South. Unfortunately, none of the state officials explicitly attributed or directed the influence operation towards Russia, while accusations were made that would indirectly accuse Germany of stopping the mine. July 19, 2024 represents a geostrategic turning point regarding Serbia and critical raw materials, including lithium. Then the strategic partnership between Serbia and the EU in the field of critical raw materials was signed. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and EU Commissioner Maros Ševčević were present at the ceremony, along with executives from Western automobile giants such as Mercedes. By signing a strategic partnership with the EU, Serbia dealt a geopolitical slap to China and Russia. By joining the European supply chains, Serbia additionally strengthens its economic and energy autonomy in relation to China and Russia. The State Secretary of the German Ministry of Ecology, Franciska Brattner, stated that the EU would certainly not be happy if lithium was mined in Serbia and then sent to China and then returned to Europe. Serbia, which has refused to impose sanctions on the criminal regime from the Kremlin since the beginning of Russian aggression, is simultaneously increasingly approaching Western integration on essential issues such as critical raw materials. The lithium project is estimated to represent the largest single foreign direct investment in the history of Serbia, while estimates by officials and independent experts say that it is possible to attract around 12 billion euros worth of investments and employ an additional 21,000 people. There is no longer any doubt that China will increasingly openly use critical supply areas to increase its pressure on the EU. In this whole geopolitical competition, Serbia chose the EU and not China, which controls two strategic sectors – the cooper mine and the iron factory.
Where does he suspect Russian involvement in anti-lithium activities? It would be wrong to accuse Russia of being the sole and exclusive instructor of anti-lithium activities. But based on the following facts, we can conclude that Russia is a definite participant in these actions. Based on publicly available data – photos from the protests, graffiti on the streets, posts on X and content analysis, indicators of Russian interference are visible.
Overview of the situation with a Russian undertone. Fan groups of leading football clubs (Crvena Zvezda and Partizan), some of which have close ties to Russian structures, sent the following messages. Crvena Zvezda: “Everyone’s mouth is full of jadarit, and nobody even asks about the cosmetic”, Partizan: “I don’t give dew, I don’t give grass, I don’t give Drina, I don’t give Sava”. The first message makes an analogy with Kosovo and national betrayal due to the partnership with the EU, while the second message refers to the most widespread misinformation that there will be destruction of drinking water and nature. If we recall that in the first days of the Russian aggression, the fans of the Crvena Zvezda performed a choreography in the colors of the Ukrainian flag with graves and an armed soldier who looks like the Russian VDV.
Gazprom Neft is the general sponsor of the Crvena Zvezda football club. Fan groups represent categories of pressure groups when it comes to hybrid threats. The increased activity of RT Balkan was noted, which along with the anti-lithium campaign regularly broadcasts the affirmative statements of Serbian officials on the issue of lithium. Some of the content from RT Balkan:
- Resolution 1244, Dayton Agreement, ZSO – these are just some of the situations when the EU guaranteed something to the Serbs but did not fulfill it. Will it be different in the case of lithium mines?[1]
- The question that arises is that Europe is not digging in its own backyard, but its eyes are on the “neighborhood”, in Serbia? Although reserves have been confirmed in the German states of Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Württemberg, local authorities still have to work hard to reassure residents that mining is safe[2].
- The profession has spoken out: The “Jadar” project means the sure destruction of key reserves of drinking water [3]
- The price of lithium in reverse: Why the value of the metal that should be mined in Serbia has fallen sharply[4]
At the protests organized throughout Serbia, the flags of Russia and Christ the Pantocrator, which is the trademark of all pro-Russian gatherings, can be seen. At the same time, the center of Belgrade is covered with graffiti of the organization 451, which is associated with fascist ideas. This group is connected in various ways with the organizations that visited the Russian Imperial Legion and is connected by the media reports as part of a wider network with organizations that advocate an alliance with Russia. A large number of pro-Russian opinion makers are actively involved in the campaign against lithium mine using the well-known narrative of multinational corporations, environmental pollution and destruction, neo-colonialism and similar russian playbook for Global South.
On the basis of publicly available content, there should be an clarification of Russia’s role in encouraging the economic sabotage of Serbia. Likewise, it cannot be claimed that all actors are directed by the Russian subversive network but act on the basis of other motives.
[1] https://rt.rs/srbija-i-balkan/100846-litijum-eu-garancije-srbija/
[2] https://lat.rt.rs/ekonomija/100667-koje-zemlje-imaju-najvece-rezerve-litijuma/
[3] https://rt.rs/svet/102274-litijum-jadar-kopanje-naucnici-struka-stav-posledice-voda/
[4] https://lat.rt.rs/ekonomija/101365-litijum-cene-svetske-berze-pad/