Yurii PoitaThe fall of Bashar al-Assad and his regime in Syria is, among other things, an important lesson regarding China’s role in ensuring the security of strategic partners, the effectiveness of China’s global security initiatives.
Syria has had quite close relations with China:
First, Syria has a strategic partnership, is a member of the “One Belt, One Road”. China has helped Syria in the construction of some projects, such as a textile factory and a stadium. China has also signed a contract to build a hydraulic power plant and a rubber tire factory.
China’s CNPC and Sinopec have been working on oil production in Syria, with production reaching about 100,000 barrels per day. In 2021, China was Syria’s second largest import partner with a share of 11.1%, while exports from Syria to China accounted for less than 1% of total exports. At the same time, China’s participation in the reconstruction of Syria was very limited – for loans and petroleum products. There was no investment.
Secondly, there was communication at a personal level between the leaders of the countries. In 2023, Assad and his wife attended the opening ceremony of the Asian Games in Hangzhou, met with Xi Jinping, and also led a delegation of Syrian officials to discuss economic relations. Xi Jinping said that relations between the two countries had “withstood the test of international changes,” and the Chinese Foreign Ministry noted that Assad’s visit would take bilateral relations to a “new level.”
Third, Syria was one of the countries that supported the Hong Kong national security law at the UN in June 2020, which allowed Beijing to establish full political and security control over Hong Kong. Syria has also supported Chinese projects – the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, and the Global Civilization Initiative.
Fourth, Chinese military advisors have been in Syria, working on the restoration of its military facilities, training in the use of Chinese-made weapons, including anti-tank systems, air defense systems, artillery, and small arms. There have been talks about China’s participation in the Syrian missile program.
The military attaché of the Chinese embassy in Syria at an official event in 2024. stated:
“The Chinese army will continue to resolutely support the Syrian army and the Syrian people in defending independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as in strengthening practical cooperation between the two armies. We are ready to work side by side with the Syrian side to bring the relations between the two armies to a higher level in a new era.”
As we can see, neither the “strategic partnership”, nor Syria’s full support for Chinese international initiatives, nor economic and military cooperation, meetings of leaders, statements of “resolute support” have ensured Assad’s security from China.
And the Chinese Global Security Initiative has once again shown itself to be a soap bubble.
This suggests that Chinese initiatives, promises, assurances of support have little to do with reality, and China has no tradition of real armed protection of its strategic partners, providing them with security guarantees.
This is worth remembering in the context of China’s participation in the peaceful settlement between Ukraine and Russia.