Mykhailo SamusThis article was prepared by the Consortium for Defence Information
Ensuring Ukraine’s security guarantees in countering Russian aggression and establishing conditions for long-term, stable, and comprehensive peace is possible through Ukraine’s full integration into the Euro-Atlantic security space. However, Ukraine’s accession to NATO remains a matter of strategic decisiveness from our partners – something that has been lacking so far and, most likely, will continue to be absent in the foreseeable future.
Under these circumstances, to ensure the deterrence of Russia, Ukraine should focus on establishing a unified European security system (including Ukraine) and securing strategic support from the United States.
Strategic Framework and Objectives
The primary goal of this initiative is to strengthen European security through collective efforts, including Ukraine, to create an integrated (yet autonomous from the U.S.) security architecture. The concept involves forming European Defence Forces, which would include unified command structures and combat components for conducting operations at various levels, as well as European Strategic Deterrence Forces.
These European Strategic Deterrence Forces could comprise long-range missile systems, missile defence/air defence systems, and nuclear deterrence mechanisms. The development of these European Defence Forces would be ensured by increasing European defence expenditures and enhancing industrial cooperation.
At the same time, U.S. strategic support could focus on supplying Ukraine with weapons systems to rapidly achieve key combat capabilities, including:
- Air superiority (fighter aircraft and missile armament for combat aviation);
- Long-range missile systems (up to 2,500 km);
- Air defence/missile defence systems;
- Intelligence and targeting systems;
- Ammunition, artillery systems, MLRS, and more.
U.S. support could also include investments in Ukraine’s strategic economic sectors, including mineral resource development.
Key Objectives:
- Strengthening the European component of NATO to ensure more effective regional defence against an aggressive Russia.
- Developing joint European Defence Forces, including Strategic Deterrence Forces.
- Fully integrating Ukraine into these initiatives.
- Establishing financial commitments from European countries to support these projects (3-4% of GDP for defence).
- Promoting industrial cooperation within the European defence sector, including Ukraine.
Core Components of the European Strategic Deterrence Forces
1. Long-Range Missile Forces
To establish effective deterrence against Russia, European nations (including Ukraine) must develop and deploy deep-strike missile capabilities. These could include:
- Cruise and ballistic missiles capable of striking deep into Russian territory, ensuring the destruction of key military infrastructure in the European part of Russia.
- Integration with existing NATO and EU defence systems (as well as Ukrainian systems) to enhance operational effectiveness.
- Development of autonomous (i.e., independent of the U.S.) strategic and operational intelligence and targeting systems.
These capabilities would significantly raise the risks for Russia, making aggression against Europe increasingly unfeasible.
2. Missile Defence/Air Defence System
A multi-layered European missile defence/air defence system is necessary to neutralize missile and drone threats from Russia. This system could include:
- A multi-tiered missile defence network utilizing a comprehensive approach with interceptors of various ranges and functionalities.
- Protection against intermediate-range ballistic missiles (up to 5,500 km) to safeguard critical military and civilian infrastructure. This requires developing European missile defence systems (possibly involving U.S. and Israeli companies, along with Ukraine), with characteristics similar to the U.S. THAAD, Aegis, or Israel’s Arrow-3. These systems focus on exo-atmospheric interception of ballistic missiles early in their trajectory, eliminating threats before impact.
- A comprehensive air defence system to counter long-range attack drones, including a dense radar network for guaranteed detection of any aerial threats.
An integrated European missile defence/air defence system will be a critical element in strengthening Europe’s resilience against strategic threats from Russia.
3. European Nuclear Deterrence Forces
Given the growing nuclear threats from Russia, Europe (including Ukraine) must enhance its nuclear deterrence capabilities – especially as U.S. involvement in guaranteeing European nuclear security is expected to decline. This could involve:
- Expanding European nuclear capabilities to maintain strategic parity with Russia.
- Potential Ukrainian participation in developing European nuclear deterrence mechanisms, leveraging its scientific and technical expertise in this field.
- Establishing command and control mechanisms within European defence structures to manage nuclear deterrence systems.
Integrating nuclear deterrence into Europe’s broader defence architecture will contribute to strategic stability and ensure Russia is deterred from attacking Ukraine and other European nations.
Funding and Defence Industry Development
Increasing Defence Expenditures
To implement these initiatives, European nations must raise defence spending to 3-4% of GDP, enabling:
- Development, production, procurement, and deployment of advanced defence technologies necessary for building joint European Defence Forces, including Strategic Deterrence Forces.
- Strengthening the European defence-industrial complex.
- Ensuring sustainable financing for long-term security commitments.
European Defence Industrial Cooperation
A key aspect of this strategy is developing a robust and competitive defence industry with significant Ukrainian involvement. This could include:
- Joint research and development in missile technologies, missile defence, next-generation aviation systems, robotic platforms, and artificial intelligence.
- Integration of Ukraine’s defence industry, utilizing its experience in producing advanced weapons systems tested in the war against Russia, along with promising developments in ballistic missiles, drones/robotics, automated command-and-control systems, and AI-based defence applications.
- Securing supply chains by reducing reliance on external suppliers and strengthening internal European production capabilities.
Investments in the defence-industrial complex will provide Europe with strategic autonomy and enable the further development of cutting-edge defence technologies. Ultimately, this will empower the formation of joint European Defence Forces (including Ukraine) and ensure effective deterrence of Russia.
Strategic U.S. Support for Ukraine
Maintaining strategic support from the U.S. remains a key priority for Ukraine, particularly in the short term – during the further buildup of Ukraine’s defence forces and the formation of joint European Defence Forces and Strategic Deterrence Forces.
Key Areas of U.S. Assistance:
- Weapons supplies, including combat aviation, long-range missile systems (up to 2,500 km), air defence/missile defence systems, artillery, MLRS, intelligence and targeting systems, strategic reconnaissance and strike drones.
- Expanding military and defence-industrial cooperation, including training Ukrainian forces and integrating Ukraine into U.S. defence-industrial projects.
- Investing in strategic sectors of Ukraine’s economy, including mineral extraction and defence industry projects.
Conclusions and Recommendations
Ensuring stable and lasting peace in Ukraine and Europe requires consolidated efforts involving the EU, Ukraine, and strategic support from the United States.
The creation of joint European Defence Forces (which would also serve as an independent European NATO component) will:
- Reliably deter Russian aggression.
- Ensure long-term stability across the European continent.
- Drive innovative advancements in European defence technologies.
As a result, a united Europe – including Ukraine – will be able to guarantee security on the continent by countering and deterring aggressive Russian actions. Under these conditions, Europe can achieve strategic autonomy from the U.S. (including in nuclear deterrence) while maintaining an equal role with the U.S. in the Euro-Atlantic security system. This, in turn, will enhance NATO’s proactive role amid anticipated global turbulence.
At the same time, continued U.S. strategic support will accelerate Ukraine’s resilience-building efforts, military capacity development (especially in the short term), economic recovery, and technological advancement.