Igor FedykThe Western Balkans is a special region. First of all, because of the extremely sensitive issue of security in it. Any movements related to stability and security are always perceived with fear and are the object of close attention. The documents on defense cooperation recently signed by some of its countries were no exception. Despite the fact that they do not mean the immediate emergence of new military alliances in the Western Balkans, such steps, however, create unnecessary tension in the region.
The Tirana Declaration
On March 18, an earthquake occurred in the information space of the Western Balkans. It was caused by the news that in Tirana, two NATO members Albania and Croatia signed a joint declaration on security and defense cooperation -with partially recognized Kosovo. With this document, the countries agreed to promote the development of defense capabilities and sectoral cooperation, increase the interoperability of their armed forces, counter and strengthen resilience to hybrid threats, and provide full support for Euro-Atlantic integration. The declaration states that it does not create any new international or intergovernmental legal obligations between the states, and does not affect existing obligations with other states. However, in Belgrade they did not appreciate the intentions of Tirana, Zagreb, and Pristina to improve stability and security. The Serbian Foreign Ministry considered what happened in the Albanian capital to be a “dangerous precedent in the region.” The declaration itself was called an “open provocation” and a threat to both Serbia’s territorial integrity and regional stability. The Serbian Foreign Ministry also asked its Croatian and Albanian counterparts to provide a detailed explanation for their countries’ reluctance to sign similar documents with Serbia.
For his part, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said that Croatia and Albania had started an arms race in the region and that Belgrade “understood their message.”
The emotional outbursts towards the declaration from official Belgrade are quite understandable. According to Igor Novakovic, a senior researcher at the ISAC Fund (Serbia), they are connected with the fact that the document signed in Tirana is one of the steps towards supporting Kosovo’s Euro-Atlantic integration. In addition, it is evidence of Zagreb’s intentions to strengthen its position as a regional player.
The response of the participants of the Tirana declaration to Belgrade’s criticism was not long in coming. In particular, Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic noted that the memorandum “is not hostile in nature” and that Croatia does not need to ask “neither Serbia nor NATO” to conclude it. However, Croatian Defense Minister Ivan Anusic was less diplomatic in his response to Belgrade. “The time has passed when Croatia asked Belgrade what it was allowed to do and how it should do it, and this will never happen again,” Anusic said.
Belgrade’s response
Along with the criticism of the declaration signed in Tirana, Serbian media reported that Belgrade was preparing a worthy response to it. In particular, that President Aleksandar Vucic and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban had already entered into “serious negotiations on a military alliance between the two countries.”
In confirmation of these reports, on April 1 in Belgrade, Serbian Defense Minister Bratislav Gasic and his Hungarian counterpart Kristof Szalay-Bobrovniczky signed the Plan for Bilateral Military Cooperation for 2025. According to Igor Novakovic, the plan can be considered a response to the declaration signed by Croatia, Albania, and Kosovo. At the same time, its signing is not something sudden and unprepared. In 2023, Serbia and Hungary signed a Strategic Partnership in Defense, and this plan, which was probably planned a few months ago, is the result of the work of the Working Group within the Strategic Partnership Council. The strategic partnership between Serbia and Hungary itself is the result of fairly good personal relations between the leaders of both countries.
During the signing ceremony of the plan, Aleksandar Vucic -said that Budapest and Belgrade had agreed to hold 79 defense events in 2025, including joint helicopter and other exercises, cooperation in the defense industry, cybersecurity, peacekeeping operations, military education and medicine. He also said that the signed plan would continue in the form of a “military alliance of Serbia and Hungary.” However, Igor Novakovic believes that this document between NATO member Hungary and neutral Serbia, like the Strategic Partnership Agreement between them, will most likely not become a military alliance, but will remain simply a platform for bilateral cooperation. The statements of the Serbian authorities and the campaign in the pro-government media in support of the plan and idea of transforming Serbian-Hungarian bilateral defense cooperation into a full-fledged military alliance have primarily media goals.
Not military alliances
Despite the statements of the leaders of the countries and numerous publications in the media, neither the Croatian-Albanian-Kosovo declaration nor the Serbian-Hungarian plan should be considered either as “military alliances” or as steps towards their creation. Igor Novakovic explains this by the fact that neither document contains a provision on mutual defense, and the declaration signed in Tirana is still only a statement of intent, far from an official agreement. In addition, according to the expert, its implementation may be limited by the contradictions that exist between its participants. First of all, between the prime ministers of Albania and Kosovo, Edi Rama and Albin Kurti. Also he believes that the very fact of defense cooperation between Croatia and Kosovo “may be favorable for internal discourses in both states and to poke in Belgrade’s eye.”
Also, it is quite likely that both formats of cooperation will not expand by adding new participants. After all, some have their own reasons for not doing so, while others will not be allowed to join. “For example, Montenegro has a permanent dispute with Croatia — the Jasenovac Declaration from last year — and is focused on its application for EU membership. The country is the region’s leader in this process. Therefore, it will refrain from any actions that could cause problems in it,” Igor Novakovic says.
Serbian media, allegedly referring to a statement by Croatian Defense Minister Anusic, spread the news that Bulgaria could join the declaration signed in Tirana. Despite the fact that this news leaked into the Bulgarian information space, official Sofia openly ignored it. And the Bulgarian expert community believe that the country is not interested in this at all.
On the other hand, the constant problems with Sofia prevent North Macedonia, which currently has good relations with both Belgrade and Budapest, from joining the Serbian-Hungarian plan. “Official Sofia is extremely sensitive to the influence of Serbia in North Macedonia. Even to friendly relations. And any steps by Skopje towards joining the Serbian-Hungarian alliance will probably be perceived as an act of hostility,” says Igor Novakovic. At the same time, he adds that such a step will be possible only if NATO and the EU lose interest in the region. The President of the Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, recently announced his desire to join the defense cooperation between Serbia and Hungary. According to the constitution of Bosnia and Herzegovina, foreign policy, including participation in military alliances, is the competence of the state. Therefore, such a step by Banja Luka would be unconstitutional. In addition, the chances of Republika Srpska becoming part of Serbian-Hungarian defense cooperation are low due to the fact that Serbia itself may not be interested in this.
In conclusion, we can say that with the functioning of NATO, defense cooperation between Croatia, Albania and Kosovo on the one hand and Serbia and Hungary on the other is unlikely to lead to the creation of new military alliances in the Western Balkans. And although this cooperation between the countries will continue, its main goal will be to obtain political benefit from it for the leadership of these countries. On the other hand, such cooperation will have the effect of increasing polarization in the region, in particular, between Serbia and Croatia and Serbia and Kosovo. As for the latter, the declaration signed by it with Croatia and Albania further complicates the Serbia-Kosovo dialogue and the process of normalizing of the Serbia-Kosovo relations in general.
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