Igor FedykAnti-government protests have been going on in Serbia for almost six months. However, there is still not the slightest hint of a way out of the current situation. Neither the protesters nor the ruling regime are ready to make concessions to each other. Everyone stands their ground and demonstrates a willingness to go to the end.
Here are the comments of the former Serbian ambassador to Belarus Srecko Djukic and Serbian foreign policy analyst Bosko Jaksic on how the protests have changed Serbia and what to expect from the confrontation between the protesters and the Serbian authorities.
On November 1, 2024, a tragedy occurred at the railway station in Novi Sad, the second largest city in Serbia. During the renovation of the station building, its concrete canopy collapsed, killing 16 people. After that, mass anti-government protests started in the country, which continue to this day.
All this time, Serbian president Aleksandar Vucic, in whose hands all the real power in the country is concentrated, tried in every way to calm them down by applying the ‘carrot and stick’ method to the students, who are the main driving force of anti-government protests. His last step was a ‘concession’ to the protesters in the form of an alleged purge of power through the formation of a new government. Although, its composition suggests that the Serbian president, on the contrary, is preparing to resolve the issue of protests by force. Understanding this, the protesters, however, are not going to give up either their demands or to stop their street activities. In addition, they continue to convey information about the real state of affairs in the country to as many Serbian citizens as possible, as well as to the institutions of the European Union.
It will soon be six months since anti-government protests have been going on in Serbia. How has Serbian society changed during this time?
Srecko Djukic: It has changed radically during this time. Previously, there was a belief that nothing could wake it from its deep lethargic sleep, and that Aleksandar Vucic and his neo-radical party were untouchable. Now, society has lost its fear of the dangerous government, which has become a paper tiger. Of course, the government still shows that they are heroes and threatens to use force. But such a step would provoke a popular uprising, and it is clear that its external sponsors will not allow it to do this. After all, then they would have to refuse its support.
Bosko Jaksic: The protests continue, what the final result will be is still anyone’s guess, but the revolt of the students and a large number of citizens who have joined them in the meantime has already qualitatively changed Serbia. It has seriously broken the barriers of fear and blackmail that protected the regime. In a society that was on the verge of apathy, it activated demands for justice, truth and independent functioning of institutions. The protests introduced a sense of community and solidarity, gained sympathy from the region with which the government constantly quarrels.
Vucic tried to pacify the students with all the means in his arsenal: he tried to bribe them with the offer of cheap apartments and to ‘explain’ to them that they were victims of ‘Croatian student-spies’ and Albin Kurti. Increasing his rhetoric, he divided students and professors and threatened the rector of Belgrade University. Powerless in the face of the justice-loving sincerity of the students’ demands, and unwilling to open corruption investigations embedded in the foundations of the Novi Sad canopy, he used the archaic narrative of ‘patriots’ and ‘traitors’. Unprepared to face the truth, he repeats that this is an internal and external attack on the state by identifying himself and his government with Serbia.
Aleksandar Vucic is trying to portray the protests as an attempt at a ‘color revolution’ in the country. Is this how Serbian society perceives it?
Srecko Djukic: ‘Color revolutions’ is nonsense that Vucic, Lukashenko, Putin, Orban still use… Let Vucic allow elections to be held according to the democratic standards by which he won in 2012. And then it will become clear who is falsifying and stealing the elections. He did not complain about the election standards when he won in 2012. But since then he has adapted every subsequent election to his own needs.
Bosko Jaksic: The old trick about the ‘external enemy’ from the time of socialism has not gone away. Vucic said that Beijing and Moscow warned him about a ‘colored revolution’ from the unidentified West, but there is no revolution, not even a ‘colored’ one. The students managed to capillary spread their message throughout Serbia, and among people who until recently were victims of Vucic’s media control. They recognize that the cause of discontent in the country is Made in Vucic, and they don’t buy Russian conspiracy theories.
Vucic has already announced several times that the ‘color revolution’ has come to an end. He promised to write a world bestseller about how he defeated the ‘color revolution’ and that it would be a textbook with millions of copies. The problem of the Serbian Don Quixote is that he has not defeated anyone.
Aleksandar Vucic has formed a new government and is positioning it as a serious concession to the protesters. How do the protesters themselves feel about his move?
Srecko Djukic: It means nothing for them. It is a repackaging of the old in a new and so transparent wrapper that everyone laughs at it. No one can promise the new Serbian government that it will survive the winter.
Bosko Jaksic: The new government of as many as 30 ministers, whose Prime Minister is a professor of medicine, should create the illusion of national unity and the gathering of politics and the profession, although it seems to satisfy the president’s ambitions and coalition appetites more than the need for efficient work and getting the country out of the crisis.
The election of the Minister of Justice and the Minister of Information, proven opponents of the student movement and supporters of crackdowns and arrests, is just another indicator of attempted repression. Such a government means nothing to the students and they show no intention of resigning.
Why don’t the protesters demand Vucic’s resignation as the root of all the problems in the country? Do they understand that without his departure from power and loss of influence over it, little will change in the country?
Srecko Djukic: It is unrealistic for him to resign. He is using a trick. He is proposing a referendum on confidence. However, society does not accept it, because it understands that it will be the same as in every election. It (the referendum — Ed.) will simply be stolen. Vucic is the pillar of the regime. He needs to be shaken further so that he himself falls like a candle on the floor. He will never be the same as before, but only Vucic, who will resign.
Bosko Jaksic: The students wisely avoided the trap of being accused of politicization. They are not seeking the overthrow of the president, they are just ignoring him because meeting their demands is beyond his constitutional authority. They are not asking for the abolition of Parliament or a new government. They also distanced themselves from the opposition. They avoided having visible leaders aware of the discredit campaign. Their rebellion is not personalized, but aimed at improving the system. They say that they want to stay in Serbia, that they will not build other countries, but in order to stay they must have a democratic country. Changing the system certainly leads to the removal of Vucic from power, but they carefully avoid saying that.
Why can’t the Serbian political opposition use the protests to its advantage to dismantle the Vučić regime?
Srecko Djukic: Our political opposition has lost many battles and lost credibility. In all that time, it has never been able to gain power in any of the municipalities. That is why the opposition, despite its presence in the Serbian parliament, is not taken into account either in Serbia or in Europe. What it is doing today is not enough. While students are traveling all over the country, the opposition is waiting in Belgrade for power to fall into its hands from the sky.
Bosko Jaksic: This is the last chance for the opposition to confirm the purpose of its own existence. If the students organize themselves in some political way, the opposition must overcome internal divisions and conflicts of personal vanities and try to unite with the students who have the greatest political authority.
In the students vs Serbian regime confrontation, the EU has obviously sided with the latter. Although, if the values and freedoms that it so often talks about are important to it, it should have done the opposite. Why does the EU take this position in the case of Serbia?
Srecko Djukic: Yes, despite the fact that the political movement in Serbia, initiated by students and other young people, is openly pro-European, it has unfortunately not received widespread support in Brussels. The EU’s support for Vucic stems from the numerous promises he has made to individual European leaders and their countries. Vucic has fraternal ties with Orban, Fico and other politicians of that kind. The EU is once again showing ‘incompetence’ by treating the events in Serbia as exclusively its internal problems. However, I think it’s still better than if tomorrow we started talking about how the EU overthrew Vucic and brought some other group to power.
Bosko Jaksic: The European Union, and above all the European Commission, shamefully avoids supporting the demands of the students, which are identical to the reform demands that the Union sets for Serbia. When Ursula von der Leyen recently called Vucic a ‘hero of reforms’, it is clear that the EU is guided by a policy of cynical pragmatism. Brussels accepted Angela Merkel’s thesis that it is not important that Vucic is an autocrat, but it is important that he fulfills the promises he made: from Kosovo to lithium mining to weapons purchases in the West.
The voices of criticism of the regime are heard only in the European Parliament, but they will certainly be louder after the epic tour of a group of 80 cyclists who rode 1,400 kilometers from the Serbian city of Novi Sad to Strasbourg to inform the MEPs and the Council of Europe of the true state of affairs in Serbia. They also announce a marathon to Brussels. It should be expected that the European public, now more familiar with the reasons for the student revolt, will put pressure on its politicians who are expected to stop ignoring the noble demands of Serbia’s youth and its future.
What should we expect next — continued protests or attempts by the Serbian regime to suppress them?
Srecko Djukic: I have already said that the government is afraid to use force and harshly suppress protests. The protest movement is spreading throughout the country and will continue until victory. Now we need to free the state media, primarily television, and open the eyes of people throughout Serbia who have been blinded by regime-controlled programs full of lies and deception.
Bosko Jaksic: Both. Protests are not abating, they are becoming everyday throughout the country. Vucic announced that the time had come to ‘show what the state is’, that he regretted not doing it earlier, and that he was clearly following the path of increased repression. It is more than a risky game for the regime, because according to all the analyses, he cannot count on getting the support of the army and the police, whose lower echelons are not ready to go against their own people for a serious confrontation with the protesters.
To read the Ukrainian version of the interview — press here