Igor FedykIn the first round of the presidential re-elections in Romania, the leader of the right-wing populist party Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) George Simion won a landslide victory. Although the outcome of the presidency will be decided in the second round, the strong first-round performance of the Eurosceptic and outspoken MAGA supporter has raised concerns among those who wish to see Romania remain a reliable and predictable ally within NATO and the European Union.
Why the re-election?
On May 4, Romanians re-elected the country’s president. The first attempt, made in November last year, was unsuccessful. Then, in the first round, the far-right, pro-Russian candidate Calin Georgescu, who enjoyed extremely low support during the election campaign, unexpectedly won. However, after the country’s Supreme Defense Council declassified documents that allegedly proved that Georgescu’s campaign was the result of organized manipulation by Russia, the Constitutional Court annulled the results of the voting. Subsequently, Romania announced a re-run of the elections to be held in May 2025, and Calin Georgescu was banned from running.
Following the Constitutional Court’s ruling, George Simion, who finished fourth in the November voting, called the annulment of the results “a coup d’état in full swing,” and his party organised a series of protests under the slogan ‘Give Us Back the Second Round.’ His discontent also received support from overseas. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference in February, U.S. Vice President JD Vance accused Bucharest of basing its actions on ‘weak suspicions of an intelligence agency and enormous pressure from its continental neighbors.’
In the May re-election, it was the leader of the AUR who celebrated victory. Almost 41% of voters voted for him. The current mayor of Bucharest, Nikusor Dan, came in second, with about 21% of voters supporting him. And although George Simion’s victory is more than certain, he did not get the necessary 50%+ votes to become president on the first try. Therefore, he and Dan will decide the fate of the presidency in the second round, which takes place on May 18.
Who are the contenders for the presidency?
39-year-old George Simion is a right-wing populist politician and civic activist. As the leader of the AUR, he is an outspoken critic of EU policy and an admirer of Donald Trump and his MAGA movement. He supports the idea of returning Romania to its 1940 borders, which include territories that are now part of Bulgaria, Moldova and Ukraine. For this, he was banned from entering the latter two.
And while Simion publicly condemns Russian aggression against Ukraine, he has repeatedly spoken out against providing military aid to the neighboring state. During his election campaign, he pledged that, if elected president, he would reveal the extent of Romania’s contribution to the war effort in Ukraine — claiming it came at the expense of subsidies for Romanian children and pensions. And last October, MEPs from his party were among the few who voted against providing financial and military aid to Ukraine.
His opponent, Nicusor Dan, is the mayor of Bucharest and co-founder of the Save Romania Union (SRU) party. He is seen as a reasonable, rational politician who takes an analytical approach to solving problems, seeks long-term solutions, and advocates unconditional support for Ukraine.
Dan does not hide his optimism about his future victory and that Romania will choose a path oriented towards the West. “A difficult second round with an isolationist president is on the horizon. This will not be a debate between individuals, but a debate between the pro-Western and anti-Western sides of Romania. Our task is to convince Romanians that they need a pro-Western direction, and this is what our campaign will focus on over the next two weeks,” Dan said.
What kind of president could Simion be?
George Simion is considered the favourite for the second round, but the competition between him and Nicusor Dan promises to be fierce. The leader of the AUR can count on both a certain part of the former Prime Minister Victor Ponta, and a few percent of the voters of the Social Democratic Party. At the same time, the National Liberal Party, the SRU and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania have already declared their support for Dan. Also, in the second round, we can expect greater activity from the Romanian diaspora, which will not want to have a nationalist president.
If Nicusor Dan becomes the new president of Romania, then we should not expect any radical changes in Romanian policy, especially regarding its foreign policy. However, there are several questions about what Romania will be like under the presidency of George Simion.
The first is whether Simion as president will differ from Simion as candidate. So far, the leader of the AUR has made many contradictory statements and now he is unable to say with certainty which of them he will implement if he becomes head of state. Such uncertainty also applies to his positioning on the security of the country, which is inextricably linked to NATO.
As Romanian foreign policy expert George Visan noted, there may be two options here. “The first is when Simion will be a regular Eastern European leader, hawkish on defense, transatlantic relations and Russia. In his last interview, he just hinted at such a stance. The second option is for Simion to become a regular populist Central and Eastern European leader, such as Viktor Orban in Hungary or Robert Fico in Slovakia, but with certain caveats that will resemble ‘Law and Justice’ rule in Poland,” Visan says.
Another big question is how serious Simion was when he announced that if he wins the elections, he would propose Calin Georgescu for the prime minister. On the one hand, says Visan, this is unlikely, because, firstly, a significant part of Romanian society perceives Georgescu as a Russian asset. Secondly, Simion’s party will need to form a coalition in parliament and have the consent of coalition partners for this. “On the other hand, at the beginning of the presidential term, the Romanian president has great political power. So who will be the next prime minister remains a big unknown,” Visan adds.
As for the European Union, there is a possibility that Simion-President will soften his criticism of Brussels and will not go into confrontation with it. “If George Simion becomes president, I don’t expect a fundamental change in Romania’s position towards the EU. Bucharest needs European funds and has the largest deficits among member states. Going against Brussels would be extremely expensive for a Simion presidency,” George Visan says. Also, according to the him, Simion should not be expected to take steps to block or sabotage the current security initiatives of the European Union, as they are beneficial for Romania both technologically and financially. At the same time, the expert does not rule out changes in the Ukrainian foreign policy vector under President Simion, especially in the issue of its comprehensive support. “He he is likely to cut back on the support but on the other hand this doesn’t necessarily mean that he will completely abandon Ukraine. The hard fact on the ground is that Ukraine holds back the Russian onslaught on the Eastern Flank and no Romanian president wants to suddenly become a neighbor of Russia. Furthermore, the Ukrainian cause is very popular in Romania and Russia is, for historical reasons, unpopular with average Romanians. A nationalist leader like Simion is unlikely to want to be perceived as being pro-Russian or pro-Putin. It is likely that the relations with Ukraine will become more transactional,” George Visan says.
To read the Ukrainian version of the interview — press here