NGRNIn the current phase of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian aggression depends on the capacity of the Ukrainian defence industry and Ukraine’s partners to produce weapons and military equipment not only in sufficient quantity, but also with the necessary rhythm. In this sense, 2025 has become a turning point: Europe created the so-called “Shell Bridge,” NATO launched the new financial mechanism PURL, and for the first time in its history Ukraine began serial production of its own artillery shells. Yet behind these successes lie serious risks: political changes in the Czech Republic, bottlenecks in propellant production, and uncertainty in Washington.
The Czech Initiative: A Phenomenal Success in 2025, but Elections Could Change Everything
The Czech Republic has become the center of an international coalition purchasing ammunition worldwide. In response to Ukraine’s artillery crisis in the spring of 2024 – when U.S. assistance was suspended and the European Union lagged in deliveries – Czech President Petr Pavel proposed an interim solution: with financial support from allies, purchase 800,000 artillery shells on the global market, even in countries regarded as partners of the Russian Federation.
The program, unofficially called the “Shell Bridge,” quickly gained international support: more than 15 European countries joined, and during 2024 up to 1.5 million shells of various calibres were delivered to Ukraine under the Czech initiative. By August 2025, Ukraine had received about 1 million rounds, and by the end of the year the figure may reach 1.8 million shells of different calibres. In total, the initiative has mobilized resources from about 20 states and has become one of the key elements of Ukraine’s ammunition resilience.
However, the situation could change. On October 3-4, parliamentary elections will be held in the Czech Republic. The opposition party ANO, led by Andrej Babiš, criticises large-scale military aid to Ukraine. If ANO wins and forms a government, there is a risk that financing of the Czech initiative could be curtailed in 2026. Already signed contracts would likely be completed, but new tranches would be in question. The Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs has already stated directly: “Halting the initiative would be a gift to Putin.”
European Production: From Firefighting to a Steady Flow
The European defence industry had planned to reach production of 2 million shells annually by the end of 2025. The target has almost been achieved, but with a shift into 2026. In Germany, Rheinmetall opened the largest artillery plant in Europe, with a projected capacity of 350,000 shells annually by 2027. New production lines, including propellants, are being built in Bulgaria and Romania. The United Kingdom is launching a complex in Wales, which will increase 155 mm production sixteenfold. The French company Eurenco is restoring explosives production in Bergerac, a key hub for all of Europe.
Thus, despite tremendous efforts, Europe has not been able to reach the planned production volumes in 2025. The desired result has been postponed to 2026. In other words, if 2025 was the year of “emergency procurement” and launching new lines, then the following year will be the year of reaching “cruising speed”: factories will work at full capacity, quarterly deliveries will stabilize, and bottlenecks in explosives production will gradually disappear.
The United States: A Slow Ramp-Up and a Bet on the New PURL Mechanism
Washington promised to produce 100,000 155 mm shells per month but has not yet been able to reach this milestone – the real breakthrough is expected only in mid-2026. Clearly, U.S. industry has significantly increased ammunition output compared to 2022, but reaching sufficient volumes still requires solving a number of problems, including shortages of components and production capacity.
One way to address these issues is the creation of the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) – a program in which European allies and Canada pay for procurement while the U.S. manufactures and delivers ammunition to Ukraine. The Netherlands was the first to announce participation in PURL, with a contribution of €500 million, primarily for Patriot systems and U.S. munitions. Sweden, Norway, and Denmark jointly contributed about $500 million, as did Canada and Germany, each announcing contributions of $500 million. Belgium and Latvia also joined the program, though they have not yet specified the size of their contributions. In this way, PURL ensures continuous financing of arms production, including ammunition, by the U.S. defence industry.
Ukrainian Production: Gradual Progress
The main breakthrough of the past two years has been the launch of serial ammunition production in Ukraine:
Mortar ammunition: In 2024–2025, Ukraine increased production of mortar rounds (60, 82, and 120 mm) to substantial annual volumes, ensuring stability of the “lower tier” of the ammunition pyramid.
Artillery of Soviet calibres (122 mm and 152 mm): Serial lines are operational, but constrained by shortages of explosives and propellants.
155 mm: In 2024, the first limited batches were produced for testing, and in 2025 they became regular. The main volumes still come from Europe, but domestic production is already functioning.
Joint ventures: The key project is a 155 mm plant in partnership with Germany’s Rheinmetall, scheduled to start in 2026 with a capacity of 80-100,000 shells per year, ramping up to 300,000.
Small-arms ammunition: Production of the most common calibres (5.45 and 5.56 mm) has been restored under Czech licence.
Shell casings: Ukrainian enterprises are already producing casings for all major calibres, including tank rounds.
Thus, for the first time since the Soviet era, Ukraine is creating its own “full cycle”—from cartridges to artillery shells.
The Need to Maintain Rhythm
In 2025, Ukraine is receiving ammunition from four sources: the Czech “Shell Bridge,” new European factories, U.S. production under the PURL mechanism, and its own domestic plants. Each of these channels has its own dynamics and risks:
The Czech initiative provides the lion’s share but depends on the outcome of elections in the country.
Europe ensures steady growth by investing billions in new factories, though the effect is postponed to 2026.
The U.S., despite loud political statements about ending aid to Ukraine, is actively engaged in ammunition production through PURL.
Ukraine is expanding its own production, gradually approaching the status of a permanent member of the 155 mm ammunition producers’ club.
The main challenge for 2026 is not merely to increase production, but to maintain rhythm. For it is rhythm, not the total figure in millions, that determines whether Ukrainian artillery can conduct counter-battery warfare day after day and hold the front.