Mykhailo SamusDespite the faint prospects for halting hostilities on the Russian-Ukrainian front, the military-diplomatic track of the “Coalition of the Willing” is showing positive dynamics. And although this remains, indeed, a “parallel reality” for now – since any “security guarantees” or other practical steps by Coalition countries are possible only after a ceasefire – the very fact of European states consolidating around the idea of forming an armed contingent to be stationed on the territory of Ukraine to prevent renewed Russian aggression already constitutes significant progress.
Last week in Paris, important decisions were adopted which, due to their “parallel” timing with mass strikes by Russian Shaheds and missiles against Ukrainian cities, did not make a major splash in the information space. In reality, however, the “Coalition of the Willing” has begun practical steps toward forming military structures for deployment on Ukrainian territory.
In particular, after the Coalition meeting in Paris, it was announced that 26 countries are ready to send their troops to participate in a mission in Ukraine after a ceasefire, with an indicative contingent size of 25-30 thousand service members. The United States declares strategic support in intelligence, communications, and air support, while Turkey may participate in ensuring security in the Black Sea.
More details emerged subsequently. The UK Ministry of Defence reported that the European military contingent on Ukrainian territory will be called Multinational Force Ukraine (MNF-U), and the MNF-U headquarters in Kyiv will be headed by a two-star British Army general. Strategic command of the MNF-U will be jointly provided by France and the United Kingdom at the three-star level. Moreover, in a reply to Conservative MP James Cartlidge, UK Defence Secretary Luke Pollard clarified that the individual designated to command the MNF-U headquarters has already been identified, but for security reasons this information is not public at present. Regarding broader commitments to the MNF-U, the British minister noted: “The Ministry of Defence maintains forces at readiness from all single Services for a wide range of contingencies and operations, including MNF-U,” though for now details regarding these forces cannot be disclosed.
Luke Pollard specified that the joint Franco-British command format for the MNF-U is expected to be maintained throughout the entire period of task execution in Ukraine, regardless of whether the main command of the forces is located in London or Paris.
Since participation in the MNF-U is expected from around 30 countries, a central issue for the contingent’s command is ensuring interoperability in planning, command and control, and employment of forces. It is currently known that the principal working language of the MNF-U main headquarters will be English, consistent with NATO protocols.
At the same time, the leadership role of the United Kingdom and France in establishing a military contingent under the “Coalition of the Willing” is explained (in addition to the political interest of the French and British leadership) by the fact that as early as 2010, under the bilateral Lancaster House Treaties, London and Paris committed to create the Combined Joint Expeditionary Force (CJEF). The purpose of the CJEF is to form a joint military grouping with land, air, and maritime components, along with command-and-control and sustainment elements. The CJEF was conceived as a deployable Franco-British force for use across a wide range of crisis scenarios, including high-intensity operations. As a combined formation, it encompasses all three services: a land component built around national-brigade-level formations, maritime and air components with their associated headquarters, as well as logistics and support functions. Under the bilateral arrangements, the CJEF is not a standing force; rather, it can be brought to readiness at short notice for UK–French operations or for operations under NATO, the EU, the UN, or other formats. From its inception, the CJEF moved toward attaining operational readiness – which was achieved in 2016 – with the gradual establishment of land, air, and naval components. Today, the CJEF includes command elements at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels, as well as deployable maritime, land, air, and logistics components of France and the United Kingdom. The CJEF also has the capacity to draw in other states as coalition partners – one of the key aspects for forming a military contingent to be stationed on the territory of Ukraine.
In other words, the Franco-British Combined Joint Expeditionary Force is an ideal format for creating the Multinational Force Ukraine. A command system, land, air, and maritime components together with comprehensive logistics support – this is exactly what is needed for the rapid crystallization of the idea of establishing European forces in Ukraine. The ability to react quickly, to conduct autonomous operations, and to act without direct embedding in national systems for making politico-military decisions turns the CJEF model into a workable core for the MNF-U. What remains is to integrate into the existing structure the national contingents from the “Coalition of the Willing” countries, allocating them across the corresponding service components (land, air, maritime, logistics) – and the European grouping for “post-war security guarantees for Ukraine” will be ready.
In practice, however, if implemented, creating the MNF-U could become the largest operation by European forces at least since the 1990s (when Europe conducted peacekeeping missions in the Balkans) and will require a concentration of European political and military resources. The paradox is that the main test for Europeans will not be military standards and interoperability, but the willingness to overcome the fear of the myth of “Russian invincibility.” Even the deployment of military forces in Ukraine after a ceasefire still provokes an unnatural fear among a significant part of EU countries. Practical steps to establish the Multinational Force Ukraine can become a “cure for fear” for Europeans who, looking to Ukrainians, will finally grasp the urgent necessity of dismantling an aggressive empire that will not stop until it gains control over all of Europe.