Andrii RudykThe saga of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to this year’s BRICS Summit eventually came to an end. The Kremlin announced that the Russian leader would not visit the host state – South Africa. At first glance, it seems that Putin was frightened by the warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for his arrest. However, in reality, the situation might be diametrically opposite and the Russian dictator remains in the winning position.
It is widely believed that the states that ratified or acceded to the Rome Statute of the ICC must unquestioningly fulfill its provisions. However, previously South Africa set the precedent of refusing to execute ICC arrest warrant.
In June 2015, Sudanese dictator Omar Hassan al-Bashir visited the country, and the South African authorities did not arrest him. It is worth noting that the accusations against al-Bashir were more serious than those currently brought against Putin. Sudan’s former president was suspected of organizing genocide in the province of Darfur, war crimes and crimes against humanity. At the same time, the ICC accuses Vladimir Putin «only» of abduction of Ukrainian children. Thus, according to legal logic, al-Bashir is a “more dangerous” criminal than Putin.
However, there were no negative consequences for South African authorities for refusing to execute the arrest warrant for Omar al-Bashir. It is worth paying attention to the fact that the case concerned African leader. As statistics show, international justice pursues war criminals from the “third world” countries much more actively. In fact, quite often the ICC and other special international courts and tribunals are criticized for being able to prosecute and punish only Africans.
On the other hand, it is no less obvious that, de facto, for the civilized world, Putin is a much more significant criminal than Omar al-Bashir. Nevertheless, the main difference is that the Russian leader represents state with nuclear arsenal and a permanent member of the UN Security Council.
It was also widely believed that the Kremlin dictator would use the visit to South Africa to discredit the international justice system. However, the question arises here: why South Africa and not politically allied Turkmenistan, which did not sign the Rome Statute, or the Central African Republic, completely dependent on Russia? Moreover, since the CAR has two large-scale cases at the ICC for war crimes committed on its territory, the refusal to extradite Putin would be especially eloquent.
However, the performance was played out precisely with South Africa. For what? Indeed, Pretoria is not a direct military-political ally of Moscow (BRICS is an ephemeral non-binding organization), unlike Dushanbe or Bangui. Furthermore, South Africa maintains a certain level of subjectivity both on the continent and in the international arena in general.
The Kremlin dictator employed traditional Russian diplomatic tactics: he created a “problem” himself and “heroically” overcame it. Despite the fact that the authorities of South Africa have publicly stated that they are not going to arrest Putin, it is worth remembering how Pretoria’s position on this issue has changed several times. Probably, South African officials assessed the risk of reputational risks, and therefore behind the scenes asked Putin not to come to the BRICS summit. It should not be excluded that pressure was exerted on Pretoria from a number of Western capitals. The Kremlin dictator deliberately kept the “public” in suspense, and then generously satisfied South African appeal. As a result, Pretoria remains politically indebted to Moscow. Putin is perceived as reliable and compliant partner, politician with whom you can come to an agreement. Such image of Russian leader will be projected on other African states by Kremlin’s propaganda.
The Russian army’s nightly missile attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea ports in Odesa and Mykolaiv make this narrative even louder. A clear message was send to African states: «If you want grain, negotiate with Putin». Russia continues to terrorize Ukrainian port cities and Ukrainian citizens, trying to persuade the world community and Kyiv to negotiate.
Undoubtedly, Putin’s refusal to attend the BRICS Summit looks like a fear of international justice. For sure, the status of the first active head of state in Europe, against whom the ICC issued an arrest warrant, bothers Putin a lot. However, as already noted, the visit of the Russian president to South Africa would have rather negative consequences for the African country, not for Putin or Russia. Therefore, Putin ostensibly showed his fear (in the Western interpretation), but in the end got his benefit – grateful and more friendly South Africa.
by Andrii Rudyk,
PhD in Social and Behavioral Sciences, Political Analyst