Igor FedykThe situation at the front
Luhansk direction
Over the past week, the Russians have continued their active operations in the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna section (which length is about 170 km), where they have concentrated one of their most combat-ready groupings. It includes one tank army, four combined arms armies, and one army corps.
There are three directions in this section where the Russians are most active. The first one is the Kupiansk direction, where Russian attacks are aimed at seizing part of the road leading to Svatove. The second one is in the Novoselivske area. And the third one is near the Zherebets River (Nevske, Torske, Yampolivka), where the Russians are trying to push Ukrainian units across the river.
In their offensive actions, the Russians use almost all the means at their disposal, primarily artillery and aircraft. However, there are no breakthroughs in the defense line of the Ukrainian Defense Forces (UDF) in the Luhansk direction yet.
It should also be noted that the Russians use their reserves in this direction – the sixth combined arms and first tank armies. The use of reserves suggests the limited offensive capabilities of the Russian group fighting there (despite its size), and also that these reserves can be destroyed the same way as in the South.
Bakhmut
Bakhmut continues to be the hottest sector on the front. The UDF continue to try to move north and south of the city. The biggest problem for the Ukrainian forces north of Bakhmut is the heights near Berkhivka, for the defense of which the Russians use all the units they have there. The heights near Berkhivka are very important for the UDF since they will allow them to establish fire control over Bakhmut from the north.
To the south of Bakhmut, units of the 3rd Assault Brigade of the UDF put pressure on the enemy in the Andriivka zone (between Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka). In the Klishchiivka area, the Russians are trying to stop the Ukrainian advance with their counterattacks. To do this, they are increasingly using reserves.
To complete the task of outflanking Bakhmut and more effectively destroying Russian reserves, it is likely that shortly, the UDF will use cluster munitions. This conclusion can be drawn from the words of General Syrsky, Commander of the Land Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who in an interview for the BBC said that cluster munitions are already near the Ukrainian artillery in the Bakhmut area.
The Russians continue to hold on to Bakhmut with all their might because the city has an important propaganda value for them. Its capture by them lasted too long and was given at a very high cost. The loss of Bakhmut will be very painful for the Russian army and could lead to unpredictable consequences both for the Russian defense in this sector of the front and for the entire Russian group fighting in Ukraine.
South
In the South, Berdyansk (movement from Velikyka Novosilka) and Melitopol (movement from Orihiv to Melitopol) remain the most active directions for the UDF.
In the Berdyansk direction, fighting continues in two settlements – Staromayorske and Urozhayne. The UDF also carry out attacks to ensure control over the settlement of Priyutne. The dynamics of the battles are as follows: the UDF are advancing, and the Russians are trying to counterattack. The fights go for every meter.
In the Melitopol direction, hostilities are taking place around Robotyne and Verbove. Their dynamics are generally the same as in the Berdyansk direction.
Considering the heavy mining of the territory where the UDF are advancing, the pace of advancement of Ukrainian units in the South is determined, first of all, by field engineer units. At the same time, artillery continues to destroy the reserves of the Russians and their important infrastructure in the rear. All this creates important conditions for a breakthrough by mechanized units, waiting for their time.
Russian missile terror against Ukrainian grain
The news: After having announced on July 17 about its withdrawal from the ‘grain deal’, Russia launched air attacks on Ukraine’s port infrastructure in Odesa and other cities in the south of the country. On the night of July 19, Russia attacked Ukraine with 30 cruise missiles, one air-to-surface missile, and 32 Shahed drones. On the night of July 20, 19 cruise missiles and the same number of Shaheed drones were launched at Odesa and Mykolaiv. The consequence of these attacks was the destruction of part of the port infrastructure and a significant amount of grain that was prepared for export.
In addition, Russia has stated that all ships going to Ukrainian ports will be considered potential carriers of military cargo and, therefore, will be attacked.
Why it matters: Russian propaganda claims that missile strikes against Ukraine’s port infrastructure in Odesa and other cities in the south are retaliation for the attack on the Crimean Bridge and that the strikes are directed exclusively at military installations. However, this is not true. Missile attacks on the night of July 18 were pre-prepared (it takes time to prepare ammunition, and enter coordinates) and were carried out precisely in time for Russia’s withdrawal from the ‘grain deal’. Also, these strikes were inflicted precisely on the cities and infrastructure involved in the export of Ukrainian grain.
The goal of Russian missile terror against Odesa and other cities participating in the ‘grain deal’ is very clear – to isolate Ukraine from access to the Black Sea and neutralize efforts aimed at restarting the grain corridor. Russia hopes that the world will accept its ultimatum and comply with its conditions, which include the resumption of ammonia exports and the lifting of some sanctions.
In addition, by blocking the access of Ukrainian grain to world markets, Russia is thus trying to create a crisis for them, and at the same time – offers a solution, which is its grain. This is confirmed by the publications of foreign media, which say that Russia tried to deliver its grain to African countries through Turkey and Qatar. Thus, according to the Financial Times, the Kremlin planned to deliver one million tons of Russian grain to Turkey at the expense of Qatar, for its further shipment to “needy countries in Africa.” This was supposed to happen on “preferential terms.” However, this Kremlin initiative was rejected by both Qatar and Turkey.
Neutralization of the ‘angry patriot’ Girkin
The news: On July 21, a Russian terrorist, the former so-called Defense Minister of the ‘DNR’ Igor Girkin, was detained in Russia. The charges brought against him are related to extremism. According to Russian media reports, Girkin was accused of extremism for two posts on his Telegram channel that talked about Crimea and problems with payments to military personnel of the 105th and 107th airborne regiments.
At the same time, it is reported that Girkin was detained after the information of Dmitry Petrovsky, a former employee of the Wagner Group. He appealed to the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office with Girkin’s accusations of embezzlement of donations collected for the needs of the Russian military. According to Petrovsky, he lost his patience “after the words of Girkin about the President of Russia.”
For the next two months, Girkin will wait for the new court hearing in an investigative isolation ward.
Why it matters: Igor Girkin, who, among other things, is also one of the founders in Russia of the so-called ‘The Angry Patriots Club’, is known for its lengthy criticism of the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense and the General Staff. In addition, he has repeatedly allowed himself to criticize President Putin. And recently, he even stated that “for 23 years, a nonentity was at the head of the country, who managed to ‘throw dust in the eyes’ of a significant part of the population,” and that “The country will not survive another 6 years in power of this cowardly mediocrity.”
It is not a big secret that Girkin was allowed to freely criticize the Russian military and state leadership (while in Russia, for the slightest public manifestation of dissatisfaction with the actions of the authorities, real prison terms are given) by his high patrons in the FSB. However, after Prigozhin’s rebellion, which dealt a significant image blow to Putin, the Kremlin decided to take full control of the information space so as not to further question the capacity of the Russian president and the legitimacy of his activities, in particular, the war he started against Ukraine. The Kremlin is betting that the arrest of Girkin will intimidate many dissatisfied with the current state leadership and make it clear to them that they must either remain silent or ‘correctly’ comment on its actions, especially concerning the war against Ukraine.
The use of a person from the Wagner Group to arrest Girkin is beneficial for Putin since it removes reproaches against him about the persecution of a ‘true patriot’. At the same time, this allows him to play off two conflicting wings of ultra-patriots against each other – the supporters of Prigozhin and Girkin.