Igor FedykIn almost a month and a half, Serbia will once again elect its parliament. This will be the fourth extraordinary parliamentary election in the last eleven years – the period when the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) is in power in the country. Together with parliamentary elections, local self-government elections will be held, in particular, in the capital Belgrade. Entering the next election campaign, the Serbian president and concurrently de facto head of the SNS, Aleksandar Vucic, wants to once again demonstrate a master class in cementing his rule and provide himself with room for maneuver in foreign relations, in particular questions related to relations with Kosovo and the introduction of sanctions against Russia. However, these elections, especially the local ones, may hide an unpleasant surprise for him in the form of a strengthening of the local democratic opposition and its transformation into a serious political opponent who can challenge his absolute power in the country.
On October 30, the Serbian government proposed to President Aleksandar Vucic to dissolve the parliament and call new parliamentary elections. A day after that, on November 1, Aleksandar Vucic and the Speaker of the Serbian Parliament, Vladimir Orlic, announced the extraordinary parliamentary elections in the country and elections in 65 cities and municipalities, including the capital Belgrade. Announcing elections to be held on the same day on December 17, 2023, the Serbian president dissolved the Serbian parliament, which had not served even half of its four-year mandate.
At first glance, there were no urgent reasons for the dissolution of the parliament and the appointment of early elections for Aleksandar Vucic. His SNS, together with its coalition partners, had a stable majority in the Serbian parliament and many municipalities and could pass any decisions he needed.
However, this is only at first glance. In fact, there are a number of reasons why the Serbian president decided to go to early elections while having all the power in the country.
First, it is a difficult situation within the SNS itself. There are enough evidence that there are serious internal contradictions in its ranks and even panic about the possible results of the elections. There are even estimates that public support for the party is decreasing rapidly. Therefore, going to new elections, the Serbian president wants to change this trend. Consolidating his power at the expense of early parliamentary elections is not something new for him. He has used this method throughout the last 11 years of his party’s rule. For example, parliamentary elections in Serbia were held in 2012, 2014, 2016, 2020, 2022 and now in 2023. Of them, only in 2012 and 2020 were regular elections. All the rest are extraordinary. Such a de facto permanent election campaign weakens his opponents, primarily from the democratic opposition, and allows him to set the political pace in the country.
Secondly, the holding of new elections gives the Serbian president room to maneuver in front of the West, in particular to convince it that the current government (which will act until the election of a new one, but without a functioning parliament and a mandate to make important decisions) cannot impose sanctions against foreign countries, as well as make binding decisions regarding Kosovo. In other words, by organizing new parliamentary elections, Aleksandar Vucic thus wants to delay Serbia’s implementation of its obligations regarding the normalization of relations with Kosovo and the introduction of sanctions against Russia.
The appointment of the elections in just a month and a half is intended to prevent the democratic opposition from preparing for them, i.e. from formulating its own clear election program and strategy. On the other hand, as already mentioned, Aleksandar Vucic and his SNS have been in a constant election campaign for the last 11 years and they are ready for the elections in such a short period of time.
Despite the aforementioned political tricks of the Serbian president, the local democratic opposition is seriously determined to give him a battle. At least at the local level, and in particular – in Belgrade, where it has good chances to win. It has finally united in one coalition called “Serbia Against Violence” and considers Belgrade as one of its priority targets in the upcoming elections, believing that a victory in the capital will be a springboard for strengthening its own positions in the country and will be the beginning of the end of absolute the rule of Aleksandar Vucic in it. To understand the importance of the elections in the Serbian capital, it should be noted that they are the third most important elections in Serbia after the parliamentary and presidential elections
With resources and greater public visibility, the democratic opposition could become a serious political opponent for the Serbian president. In addition, the success of the opposition in Belgrade and its relatively good result at the national level can lay the base for important positive changes both within the country and in its foreign policy orientation.