Pavlo KryvenkoPreventing the next war and countering the threat from the russian federation requires quick and decisive actions from European countries and NATO. Strengthening military capabilities, strengthening defense planning, and consistently and effectively informing the russian federation about its deterrence efforts are primary and key steps. Neutral European and NATO member states can reduce the risk of a new war in Europe and ensure peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region in the long term.
According to foreign experts, after intensive hostilities in Ukraine, the russian federation will need from 6 to 9 years to restore its armed forces. The ability to deter and defend is vital, regardless of whether the russian federation intends to start another war or actively builds up its military capabilities. The speed of preparation by neutral countries and NATO should be determined by the time it takes russia to rebuild its army, so a strategy focused on early deterrence is the best way to reduce the risk of war. With any alternative strategy, the risk only increases. All European countries must make a significant leap in their military readiness, expand the production of weapons, increase resilience and ensure a change in the mentality of society.
Currently, NATO recognizes the russian federation as the biggest and most urgent threat not only to the security of its member countries, but also to peace and stability in the entire Euro-Atlantic region.
Despite the almost two-year war in Ukraine, the military potential of the russian federation is greater than it seems at first glance. The ground forces of the Soviet Union suffered the greatest losses, but they will be focused on recovery. The Air Force of the USSR also suffered some losses of qualified personnel, but minimal material losses. The Baltic, Pacific and Northern fleets are still operational.
Experts estimate that the russian federation can train approximately 280,000 new recruits per year, that is, approximately 17 million within 6 years and 28 million within 10 years. The combat experience gained in units fighting in Ukraine will be useful to future recruits. The russian federation is successfully transitioning its arms industry to a military economy, using revenues from oil and gas exports. It increased production in certain segments and managed to bypass sanctions on critical components. In addition, the russian federation imports weapons from allied states such as Iran and North Korea. Compared to the West, the russian federation faces fewer problems of societal stability. The regime’s apparatus of violence suppresses any form of dissent, and it appears that russian society is willing to accept human casualties.
NATO has adjusted its defense plans to stop russian troops on the alliance’s border if russia launches an attack. This approach aims to prevent civilian casualties and eliminate the risk of fait accompli. If the russian federation captured significant territory, it could offer territorial exchanges that would divide the alliance politically. Currently, the NATO alliance has completely changed its defense planning, which includes a model of a new force of 300,000 troops ready for high readiness, and regional defense plans, which define the responsibilities of the alliance members for defense in specific areas.
Speed remains critical to NATO’s efforts, but there is still no consensus on timing. To prevent a possible war, NATO must complete its reorganization at least one year before the russian federation reaches full military capability. Only then will the Kremlin be able to realize and recognize the futility of conflict with NATO. However, changing the motivation of the russian regime or mobilizing society remains a difficult task at present.