Yurii PoitaThe main conclusions:
- The 2024 election results in Taiwan may lead China to re-prioritize its tools for establishing control over the island, according to which a peaceful reunification with Taiwan is extremely unlikely and only a military scenario should be considered.
- Due to the unpreparedness of the PLA at the moment to conduct a successful operation to capture the island, the situation in the Taiwan Strait will be relatively stable for the next few years and will have signs of 2022-2023, at the same time, the lack of alternatives to the military scenario will likely lead to increased preparations by China forces and means to carry out such an operation in the period of 2027-2030.
- Focusing on the military path of unification with Taiwan could require China to deepen relations with Russia even more, in particular, with regard to conducting joint joint exercises and strategic maneuvers, joint experience, in countering Western weapons, etc.
- For Ukraine, the election results are positive both in connection with the support of Lai Tsing-de and the new vice president Xiao Bi-Khim in providing assistance to Ukraine, as well as the great influence of Xiao Bi-Khim in the US political establishment.
On January 13, 2024, presidential and parliamentary elections were held in Taiwan, as a result of which the current Vice President of Taiwan, a representative of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Lai Ching-te won (40.1% of the vote). At the same time, the DPP lost its majority in parliament, gaining 51 seats (45.1%) in the Legislative Yuan, 52 seats (46%) to the Kuomintang, and 8 seats (7.1%) to the Taiwan People’s Party. The election results are generally in line with earlier predictions, according to which the DPP representative was most likely to come to power, while seats in the parliament would be divided between three political forces, with no single party gaining a majority.
One of the results of the election may be that the election of Lai Tsingde as president will lead to a greater conviction of the Chinese leadership that efforts to increase the PRC’s dependence and influence on Taiwan have limited effect and a peaceful way of unification with the island is unlikely, therefore intensive preparations should be made for the military way of establishing control over Taiwan.
In connection with the current inability of the PLA to successfully implement a military scenario (in addition, additional efforts are needed to prepare the economy, energy, and technological sector to function in a state of war), it is expected that the next few years the PRC will continue its strategy, which it followed in 2022- 2023 – conducting the so-called “grey zone operations”: invasion of the PLA aircraft into the ADIZ of Taiwan and crossing the middle line in the Taiwan Strait; application of economic pressure; conducting cyber and psychological operations against the Taiwanese government and society; efforts to deepen the West’s dependence on the economy of the PRC in order to ensure its tacit consent in the event of hostilities in the Taiwan Strait; strengthening its nuclear potential to deter the US and its allies from interfering in the conflict, etc.
The role of the TPP may become important, without whose votes it will be difficult to achieve the adoption of a bill on which the DPP and the Kuomintang will have significant differences, which may lead to an increase in the time for discussion, reaching consensus and mutual concessions.
Due to the fact that one of the weak points of the PLA is the conduct of so-called joint operations by all branches of armed forces at the same time, as well as amphibious operations to capture islands, an indicator of speeding up preparations for military operations will be the intensification of military exercises, during which these issues will be trained.
This may lead to increased military cooperation with Russia and the holding of joint China-Russian exercises on a larger scale than before and with a wider list of issues being worked out. In addition, China will need more information about Russia’s experience in countering Western weapons, which, in turn, will give Russia the opportunity to obtain more sensitive components to the weapons. This, if implemented, will deepen the Russian-Chinese strategic partnership and mutual trust between the military and political leadership of both countries.
For Ukraine, the election results are positive, due to the fact that Lai Ching-te and his entourage are in favor of supporting and providing more assistance to Ukraine. In addition, the new vice-president Hsiao Bi-Khim, the ex-representative of Taiwan in the USA, also has a very positive attitude towards cooperation with Ukraine and the need to provide maximum support to our country for victory in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Since Xiao Bi-him has worked in the US for a long time as a representative of the DPP and later as the head of Taiwan’s diplomatic mission, she has extensive connections in the US political establishment, so her election as vice president can be used to deepen communication with the US and obtain more defense assistance .