Yurii PoitaThe special representative of the Chinese government on Eurasian issues, Li Hui, went on a tour to visit Ukraine, Russia and a number of European countries – the EU, Poland, Germany and France.
The spokeswoman of the Chinese Foreign Ministry Mao Ning reported that “the main objective of the upcoming round of shuttle diplomacy is to build consensus for ceasefire and pave the way for peace talks. China stands ready to continue to play its role and contribute China’s wisdom to seeking a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis”.
During the meeting with Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Mykhailo Galuzin, Li Hui repeated the usual thesis of Chinese diplomacy about the need to start “peace talks” for the “final political settlement of the Ukraine crisis”, adding that China is ready to “mediate and build consensus among Russia, Ukraine , and other relevant parties”.
At the same time, a somewhat new dynamic may be observed at the moment, which Ukraine should take into account.
The results of Li Hui’s visit last year
Li Hui’s visits last year to Russia, Ukraine and European countries as part of China’s shuttle diplomacy did not bring the expected results. Two years of full-scale war demonstrate that China generally does not change its position – the PRC does not criticize Russia for its invasion; blames the “Ukrainian crisis” on “NATO expansion”; opposes the application of unilateral sanctions against Russia; calls for an end to the provision of arms to Ukraine.
At the same time, China rhetorically advocates respect for the territorial integrity of “all countries” and compliance with “nuclear security”, which, as practice has shown, are declarative statements without the possibility of their implementation.
In addition, the repeated efforts of the Ukrainian side to involve China in the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian war have failed – China did not act as a guarantor of Ukraine’s security, did not pressure Russia to stop its invasion, did not help Ukraine with the return of deported Ukrainian children, did not take steps to support work of the grain corridor (despite the fact that China is the main beneficiary of Ukrainian grain exports), did not take measures to de-occupy the Zaporizhzhya NPP.
Against this background, the position of China on some issues has deteriorated. Trade, energy, technological, information, military cooperation and political coordination between China and Russia have been significantly intensified; China has become the main channel for Russia to bypass sanctions to obtain semiconductors and critical materials for the production of weapons and UAVs; China continues to strengthen Russia’s information narratives abroad, especially in the countries of the so-called Global South; there are repeated signs of attempts by the Chinese side to undermine Ukraine’s support from the West by starting so-called peace talks and reaching a compromise with Russia.
What has changed compared to last year?
As of now, China has probably concluded that Ukraine’s position and support from the West have significant problems, Ukraine’s economic and human resources are exhausted, the United States has not been able to accept a military budget for Ukraine for a long time, social and economic problems are intensifying in Europe, resulting in protests against Ukrainian products. Therefore, Western support may be significantly reduced. In contrast, Russia has coped well with the sanctions pressure, the Russian economy has survived and is able to finance the growing military needs for the war against Ukraine, Russia has obtained the necessary electronic components by circumventing the sanctions, Putin’s political regime has no threats to its existence.
That is why, in China’s opinion, the probability of so-called peace talks between Ukraine and Russia and Kyiv’s willingness to compromise have increased, and in the case of signs of Ukraine’s readiness for negotiations with Russia, China can act as a mediator.
In this regard, it is likely that the current visit to Ukraine and a number of European countries by Li Hui aims to: find out the readiness of Ukraine and the West for negotiations and a compromise with Russia; convince Ukraine and the West of the need to find a peaceful solution to the conflict, which will actually mean the end of Ukraine’s resistance and capitulation; to lead the process of forming a new security architecture in Europe, which will take into account “rational security concerns of Russia” and the weakening of NATO.
Under these conditions, a change in the position of China in a more favorable direction for Ukraine is extremely unlikely. At the same time, if Kyiv shows weakness, then Beijing will understand this and will only increase its pressure on Ukraine and the West, strengthen information narratives aimed at the countries of the West and the Global South with calls to “stop the Ukrainian crisis” and start so-called “peace talks.” Therefore, Kyiv should demonstrate to the Chinese representative its high determination to defend its own interests, including in dialogue with China.
What should Ukraine do?
The main theses of the Ukrainian side during the negotiations with Li Hui may be:
First, any proposals by Russia, China or other countries to tolerate and recognize the occupation of Ukrainian territory are absolutely unacceptable for Kyiv. Ukraine is ready to develop a dialogue with all interested parties regarding the settlement of the war exclusively on the basis of the norms of international law and with the condition of restoring the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Secondly, Ukraine maintains a high fighting spirit and readiness to continue the armed defense of its state, which is the historical task of the entire Ukrainian nation. In Ukraine, there is enough cohesion and focus on the defense of its state, and society, the defense forces and the government are united and working together to achieve victory. Theses about Ukraine being war-weary are Russian disinformation and do not correspond to reality.
Third, Ukraine and its NATO and EU partners maintain unity to achieve a “just peace” and sustainable security architecture, including through the integration of Ukraine into the EU and NATO. The actions of “some countries that help Russia” to weaken international aid to Ukraine from partners are counterproductive and will not bring any results.
Fourthly, the actions of responsible members of the international community (including China, which positions itself) to provide assistance to Russia, which allows it to maintain its economic, technological and military potential, are unacceptable and threaten the security and stability of the entire world.
Finally, Ukraine is grateful to China for not providing Russia with ready-made weapons, but Ukraine has abundant evidence of the transfer by Chinese companies of a significant number of components to Russia, which are used by it for the production of weapons.
In this aspect, it is proposed to demonstrate components of Chinese production in the Russian weapons. In particular, the engine manufactured by the Chinese company Beijing MicroPilot UAV Flight Control Systems MD550 in the new Shahed136\Geran-2 UAVs (which are manufactured in Russia), the infrared detector of the thermal sight 1TPP1T ZRGK Tunguska M1, the Desertcross 1000-3 all-terrain vehicle manufactured by the Chinese company Shandong Odes Industry Co. , Ltd, engines manufactured by the Chinese company Jiangxi Xintuo Enterprise Co. Ltd, Hefei Huanxin Technology Development Co. Ltd, Foshan Shunde Green Motor Technology Co.