NGRNValentyn Badrak, Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies
Published at cacds.org.ua
The Russian Ministry of Defense said on April 3 that Russian military commissariats have recorded a significant increase in the number of people who have applied for contract military service across Russia after the terrorist attack on Crocus City Hall – to “avenge” the victims of the attack. Russian authorities report that over the past 10 days, about 16,000 Russians have expressed a desire to sign a contract for military service.
At the same time, against the backdrop of the announcement of the additional 300,000 people mobilization by June 1, 2024, and the simultaneous statement by the Russian Minister of Defense Shoigu after talks with French Defense Minister Sébastien Le Coronneu about the possibility of implementing the “Istanbul peace initiatives,” the Kremlin’s game looks like it is approaching the peak of an information operation against Ukraine and the West.
It is worth emphasizing that the Kremlin will be able to prepare the group of forces for an offensive no earlier than July this year due to the limited capacity of training centers and the limited time available for preparing a strategic offensive operation. At the same time, we cannot exclude the beginning of the offensive before the NATO summit in Washington, although in such circumstances the personnel of the Russian Armed Forces will not be properly trained, and the Russian forces will use mainly outdated Soviet equipment, restored and possibly partially modernized.
The Kremlin’s efforts are currently focused on delaying military assistance to Ukraine from the West and trying to convince the world that it is advisable to freeze the war. Among Moscow’s most powerful arguments is the political crisis in Ukraine and the United States, which is being used as a leverage in the information sphere and negotiations.