Igor FedykTurkey’s opposition won a serious victory across several major cities in the country’s local elections held last Sunday. The opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) gained the biggest voters’ support with 37.8%. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) won 35.5%, while the third place was taken by the conservative Islamist New Welfare Party (YRP) with 6.2%.
In the elections in Istanbul, which are of particular importance for the further development of the political situation in the country, the current mayor Ekrem Imamoglu (51.1%) won a convincing victory over the pro-government candidate Murat Kurum (39.6%). In addition to the largest cities – Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir – the AKP also lost in 11 cities in the western and central parts of Turkey, which it controlled after the 2019 elections.
These results are the worst election results in the history of the AKP and the biggest electoral defeat of President Erdogan since he came to power in the country.
There are several reasons for the defeat of the AKP and pro-government candidates in key cities.
First of all, it is a prolonged difficult economic situation in the country, from which the ruling party has not yet offered an effective way out. Long-term high inflation (at the level of 70%) led to an increase in prices for all types of products and services and hit the savings of the population. Economic growth is slowing down due to strict monetary policy measures. The difficult economic situation affected particularly pensioners, who are the basis of the AKP electorate. However, the Turkish authorities could not, for the sake of improving the financial situation of pensioners, risk an increase in the budget deficit, which is already under strong inflationary pressure.
Secondly, it is President Erdogan’s decision to nominate weak pro-government candidates (probably so that, in case of victory, they could not become his serious competitors within the AKP). Therefore, they actually had little chance to face charismatic opposition candidates such as Ekrem Imamoglu in Istanbul or Mansur Yavas in Ankara.
Thirdly, this is the appearance of a real conservative competitor to the AKP in the form of the YRP. The latter took not only votes, but also two provinces from the AKP.
As for the consequences of local elections for the internal political situation in the country, in the short term their impact will be limited due to the strong centralization of power by the AKP and the long period until the next parliamentary and presidential elections (2028), when the ruling political regime in the country may change. At the same time, the defeat of the AKP gives new dynamics to the domestic political situation in Turkey. First, the elections showed that the CHP is the strongest opposition party in Turkey. Secondly, another victory of Ekrem Imamoglu over a pro-government candidate in Istanbul positions him as the leader of the Turkish opposition and makes the scenario of his removal from political life (due to the charges against him in 2022) unlikely. Therefore, he can be the main candidate of the opposition in the presidential elections in 2028. Thirdly, the defeat of the AKP is evidence of the fatigue of the population, especially its conservative part, from the ruling party and the search for “fresh” political formations that would meet their expectations. According to the results of the elections, the YRP can be such a formation.