Yurii PoitaGerman Chancellor Olaf Scholz began his visit to China. It is expected that the main issues to be resolved during the visit are the search for an updated model and the reconfiguration of the political and economic relations between Germany and China within the framework of the EU’s so-called “derisking” policy, which is aimed at reducing risks from the PRC. It is also said that he will discuss Ukraine and will call on China not to support Russia in the war against Ukraine. At the same time, Scholz’s rhetoric will have a declarative nature and will hardly affect the fact that China has already become the main source for Russia’s circumvention of sanctions.
The key factors currently determining Europe-China relations and actually shaping the program of Scholz’s visit are the improvement of investment protection tools, anti-subsidy regulation, protection of European industry from cheap Chinese-made electric cars, investigations into Chinese government subsidies in the field of electric cars, etc. In addition, the EU and Germany, in particular, will refrain from taking drastic steps towards China until the elections to the European Parliament (to be held on June 6-9, 2024).
Ukrainian interests
The issue regarding Ukraine is expected to be secondary and will have no practical solutions other than declarations that China should use its tools to influence Russia and should not provide Russia with dual-use products. At the same time, in addition to these statements, the EU and Germany are not ready to take effective measures against China for their violation, since the sanctions will have a negative effect on European countries as well. This leads to the fact that the European side is declaratively saying that China’s support for Russia can damage China’s relations with the EU, but in reality this is not happening. And Beijing is aware of this, which significantly reduces the effectiveness of deterring China from increasing its economic and technological support for Russia. In general, there is a trend that the Russian-Ukrainian war has much less importance for European-Chinese relations, which also affects Scholz’s visit to China, significantly reducing the possibility of Germany using its tools of influence on China.
Also, the perception in the EU that China can be a mediator and a constructive player in the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian war has significantly decreased and is insignificant. Therefore, there will probably be calls to China that it should influence Russia by Scholz, but they will also have a declarative nature. Also, it is possible that Scholz will try to convince Xi Jinping to join the Peace Summit in Switzerland, but the expectations that China will change its position and make a positive decision are insignificant.
Change of situation
The situation may improve for Ukraine if the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, is re-elected. In this aspect, there is also a trend towards a decrease in the perception of China in the context of threats from Russia, and the issue of China’s assistance to Russia is practically ignored. This is negative for Ukraine as it allows to reduce Europe’s attention to China’s violation of the sanctions regime against Russia. The exceptions are the Baltic states, the Czech Republic, and Poland, which can be active leaders of Ukraine’s interests in this matter.
Therefore, in general, Germany will demonstrate its support for Ukraine during its visit to China, but in such a way that it does not harm European-Chinese and German-Chinese relations. This will lead to the fact that China’s material aid to Russia will increase. And if Europe does not take measures to stop this, Russia’s position will strengthen, which will threaten European security.