Igor FedykPerhaps the most important topic of recent times in the Western Balkans is the probable adoption by the UN General Assembly of a resolution declaring July 11 as the International Day of Reflection and Commemoration of the 1995 Genocide in Srebrenica. Some welcome such a decision and call it the “seal of truth”, others – such as leaders in Serbia and the neighboring Republika Srpska – paint an almost apocalyptic picture in the event of its adoption. Thus, several questions arise: why did the UN decide to adopt the resolution right now, is it so bad for the Serbs, and can it become a spark for the region, which has the reputation of the powder keg of Europe?
Consultations and draft resolution
On May 2, Dennis Francis, the head of the UN General Assembly, was sent the final draft resolution declaring July 11 as the International Day of Remembrance of the Genocide in Srebrenica. It was prepared based on the results of consultations convened by the permanent missions of Germany and Rwanda, as well as Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Chile, Finland, France, Ireland, Italy, Jordan, the Netherlands, Liechtenstein, Malaysia, New Zealand, Slovenia, Turkey and the USA.
The released text of the resolution, in particular, states that the UN “condemns without reservation any denial of the genocide in Srebrenica as a historical fact and calls on member states to preserve the facts, including through educational systems, developing appropriate programs, but also as a sign of memory, in order to prevent the denial and distortion of facts, and the commission of genocide in the future.” The final proposal also states that the UN “unreservedly condemns actions that glorify those who have been convicted by international courts for war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide, including those responsible for the genocide in Srebrenica.” The resolution calls on “all states to respect their obligations under the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide and customary international law on the prevention and punishment of genocide, respecting the relevant decisions of the International Court of Justice.” Also, the UN resolution “calls on all member states, organizations of the UN system and other international and regional organizations and civil society, including non-governmental organizations, academic institutions and other important participants to mark International Day, including special notes and activities to commemorate and honor the victims of the genocide in Srebrenica in 1995, as well as education and appropriate activities to increase public awareness.”
Initially, it was planned that the UN General Assembly would vote on the draft resolution on May 2, but then it was decided to postpone the vote to a later date.
Reactions
As members of the “Mothers of Srebrenica and Zepa” the association stated on April 30 after participating in a panel discussion at the UN General Assembly, the resolution on the genocide in Srebrenica is a “seal of truth”. For his part, Refik Hodzic, the former spokesman of the International Tribunal in The Hague, believes that the resolution does not reveal anything new, but “what is already true is established at the global level.”
In a joint statement dated April 19, the Serbian civil society representatives called on the Serbian authorities to “stop the practice of honoring convicted war criminals, denying crimes, victims and sentences of international courts.” The motive for such a call is their belief that in this way Serbia will take a “decisive step towards reconciliation in the region.”
However, the authorities in Serbia and Republika Srpska have a completely different view of the terrible events of almost thirty years ago, as well as the UN resolution.
Even before the official announcement of the text of the resolution, Belgrade made several statements regarding the goals and consequences of its adoption. In one of his public speeches, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said that “someone wants” to punish Serbia “for what happened 29 years ago” and that the day after the adoption of the resolution on Srebrenica “they will take the initiative to abolish the Republika Srpska, based on the position that “genocidal creations” cannot exist.” He also added that war reparations would be demanded from Serbia.
Next, the Serbian president went to New York, where he spent several days at the UN headquarters lobbying against the adoption of the resolution, which he called a “David vs Goliath fight” for “Serbia’s honor and image.” His traditional partners in the international arena – Beijing and Moscow – helped him in this “fight”. In 2015, in the UN Security Council, Moscow already managed to block the adoption of a resolution condemning genocide, but this time in the General Assembly, it does not have the opportunity to use its veto.
For his part, Milorad Dodik, the Serbian member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the de facto head of the Republika Srpska, keeps emphasizing that what happened in Srebrenica is a “great crime”, but not a genocide. Moreover, recently, he has re-intensified his blackmail about the secession of Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina. “We do not want to live with you, who want to tell the Serbian people that they are genocidal. We do not want to be with you in a full-fledged state and we will not be in one state with you,” Dodik said on April 18 in Banja Luka at the “Srpska is calling you” rally.
In addition to all this, back in March Vucic and Dodik, in the presence of the Patriarch of the Serbian Orthodox Church (SOC) Porfirije, agreed that on May 5 and 6 great Easter Assembly of Serbia and Republika Srpska would be held in Belgrade, and other parts of Serbia. According to the Serbian president, “important decisions regarding the survival of the Serbian people” were to be made at it. Vucic and Dodik informed the Patriarch “about the seriousness of the situation in which the entire Serbian people found themselves” and asked him for his blessing and support of the SOC. The date of the “Easter Assembly” was not chosen by chance, because on May 2 the UN should have voted for the resolution on Srebrenica and, as the statement of the Serbian president’s administration said, “the Serbian people had to give a decisive answer to the strictest moral, legal and political disqualifications, which were prepared against them.” However, after it became known that the vote in the General Assembly was postponed, it was decided in Belgrade that the “Assembly of the Serbian People, Serbia and the Republika Srpska” would be held immediately after the adoption of the resolution.
Why on the 29th anniversary?
Despite Belgrade’s diplomatic activity and sharp rhetoric from its side and Banja Luka, it looks like the resolution will be adopted. However, it is interesting that the vote in the General Assembly was decided to be held this year, and not next year, when the 30th anniversary of the events in Srebrenica will be commemorated.
Serbian experts believe that this is an element of political pressure on the leadership of Serbia and the Republika Srpska. “I also ask myself, OK, why on the 29th anniversary? Next year would be more logical. It is obvious that this decision is politically motivated and its purpose is to increase the pressure on Vucic,” says foreign policy analyst Boshko Jaksic.
In addition to political pressure, the head of the Republika Srpska is also under economic pressure. In particular, personal sanctions are introduced against his business partners who implement large projects financed by the EU both in Bosnia and Herzegovina and other countries of the region. The US is also working with banks to close their accounts. The result of all this is that Milorad Dodik currently has serious problems with the payment of salaries and pensions in Republika Srpska.
As for the reaction of Belgrade and Banja Luka to the resolution, according to Bosko Jaksic, the problem here is that Serbia is still not ready to accept what has been done. “This is a long process. It concerns not only the Vucic regime. It started when the democrats ruled the country. In 2010, the Serbian parliament adopted a declaration on Srebrenica in which the word genocide was not mentioned. All these years there was such an atmosphere in Serbia where if you talk about the genocide in Srebrenica, you are a traitor,” says the Serbian expert.
In addition, Serbian experts are convinced that the stormy reaction of Belgrade and Banja Luka, in particular, their intentions to hold the “Assembly of the Serbian People”, is aimed exclusively at the internal consumer, namely: to demonstrate to the Serbs the unity between Serbia and the Republika Srpska before voting for the resolution on genocide in Srebrenica and under pressure from the international community. “On the eve of the vote on the Srebrenica resolution, officials in Belgrade, starting with the president, openly admitted that Serbia’s chances of success in the blockade attempt were quite low. So why is Vucic so heroically trying to prevent the adoption of the UN resolution? Why does he engage in a battle he knows he will lose? – Only for internal use and personal rating”, – Bosko Jaksic believes. “It will be an Orthodox circus with icons, priests, the Patriarch, etc., to show the Serbs here and in Bosnia that “we stay together and no one can defeat us,” says Jelica Kurjak, the former Serbian ambassador to Russia.
Despite the emotional rhetoric and manipulation by Belgrade and Banja Luka of Serbian population sentiments, it should be noted that the tribunal in The Hague recognized that Serbia is not responsible for the genocide in Srebrenica and is not its accomplice. Serbia, the Republika Srpska, or the Serbian people are not mentioned in any of the clauses of the UN draft resolution.
Will there be a war?
Many in the Balkans and beyond, looking at the emotional attacks of Belgrade and Banja Luka towards a resolution, in particular, the latter’s threats of secession, are wary that they could lead to a repeat of the events of almost three decades ago. However, the Serbian experts, although they do not deny that the activity of the Vucic-Dodik tandem will keep the Balkan region in tension, tend to the fact that their excessively emotional reaction will not result in its serious destabilization.
“I do not believe that Dodik will succeed in the secession of the Republika Srpska and the split of Bosnia. Yes, he will continue to make threats, but he will not be able to implement them,” Bosko Jaksic believes. He and other experts believe that, first of all, there is no internal political support in the Republika Srpska either for secession or even less for a military confrontation with it. The opposition to the ruling SNSD in the Republika Srpska is against this. Secondly, in case of a military confrontation with Sarajevo, Banja Luka would be cut off from any military support from the outside. Despite the public display of unity, Belgrade is unlikely to dare to militarily support the latter. In addition, the EUFOR mission is located on the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina (in particular, in Republika Srpska itself), and the balance of forces between Sarajevo and Banja Luka is not in favor of the latter. Bosnia and Herzegovina has a professional armed force, while Republika Srpska only has a police. And thirdly, despite all the harsh words, Milorad Dodik understands that in case of secession from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Republika Srpska will not be able to exist independently. It will find itself in international isolation, economic sanctions will be applied against it, and it will have a difficult socio-economic situation, which may cost Dodik power. And power, as Serbian experts say, is the only thing that he is interested in.