Igor FedykMark Rutte, the newly appointed NATO Secretary General, has made it clear from the outset that the Alliance will continue its unwavering support for Ukraine in its fight against Russian military aggression. Demonstrating that his words are backed by action, Rutte traveled to Kyiv just one day after assuming office. This was his first official foreign visit in his new role.
Who is Mark Rutte?
Mark Rutte, the longest-serving Prime Minister of the Netherlands (nearly 14 years), is known for his pragmatism and ability to build alliances. Due to his political resilience and capacity to maintain his reputation even in the face of scandals, he earned the nickname ‘Teflon Mark.’ And due to the ability to get along with the current candidate for the presidency of the United States, Donald Trump, he is also called the ‘Trump Whisperer’.
Stoltenberg was supposed to leave his position on October 1, 2022, but in March that year, the leaders of the Alliance members during the summit decided to extend his mandate until September 30, 2023. After that they extended this mandate for another year. The former Prime Minister of the Netherlands was officially approved as the Secretary General of NATO in June this year, and began to perform his duties in the new position on October 1.
During the inauguration ceremony, the new Secretary General of the Alliance outlined three priorities for his four-year term. The first is “to keep NATO strong and ensure our defences remain effective and credible, against all threats.” The second is “to step up our (NATO) support for Ukraine and bring it ever closer to NATO, because there can be no lasting security in Europe without a strong, independent Ukraine.” And the third priority is “to strengthen our (NATO) partnerships” in a more interconnected world.
Rutte’s strong support for Ukraine is not something new and unexpected. As Prime Minister, he was a vocal critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin and a staunch advocate for Ukraine’s right to defend itself. Therefore, since the beginning of the Russian full-scale invasion, the Netherlands has provided Ukraine with weapons and ammunition worth more than €210 million, including F-16 fighter jets.
The Netherlands also participate in the training of the Ukrainian military and allowed the use of its weapons for strikes on military targets on the Russian territory. After assuming the position of Secretary General, Mark Rutte once again emphasized the importance for the Alliance of continuing to support Ukraine. “The cost of supporting Ukraine is far, far lower than the cost we would face if we allow Putin to get his way,” said Rutte during a press conference marking his inauguration. And answering the questions about Ukraine’s request to Western countries to cancel restrictions on strikes deep into Russian territory, the new NATO Secretary General confirmed that he supports such a request. “Ukraine is fighting a war of self defence, and that means that Ukraine has the right to defend itself. And as we know, international law, and according to international law, this right does not end at the border. So that means that supporting Ukraine’s right to self defence means that it is also possible for them to strike legitimate targets on the aggressor territory,” said Mark Rutte. And to show that his words regarding support for Ukraine do not differ from the facts, the new NATO Secretary General of arrived in Kyiv a day after his appointment, where he held talks with the Ukrainian president. This was Mark Rutte’s first official visit in his new position.
What to Expect from ‘Teflon Mark?’
Military expert and the director of the New Geopolitics Research Network Mykhailo Samus offers insight into what Rutte’s tenure could mean for NATO and Ukraine.
On Ukraine’s invitation to NATO
For Ukraine, of course, an invitation to NATO is one of the strategic tasks. They tried to solve it both at the Vilnius Summit and at the Washington Summit. But it is obvious that this is a geopolitical issue that is influenced by Russia’s ultimatums regarding the inadmissibility of Ukraine joining the Alliance. And this lies on the table of any communications between Moscow and the Washington. It is clear that the Biden administration is currently opposed to raising this issue and will not do so before the election. But from the fifth of November this can happen. By the way, the Czech President Peter Pavel said that, in principle, if we talk about the cessation of hostilities, then it would be possible to solve the issue of Ukraine’s joining the NATO without the occupied territories. As it once happened to West Germany during the occupation of its eastern part by the Soviet Union.
Therefore, the issue of inviting Ukraine to the Alliance is important and it is important that Mark Rutte has a more decisive approach to it. The only thing is that, of course, the NATO Secretary General does not make a decision. But again, I wouldn’t downplay his role as an official, because he can set, let’s say, the strategic tone of all processes in the Alliance. That is, Rutte’s role in the issue of Ukraine’s approach to NATO membership may be key.
If he conducts active communication and proves to the allies that inviting Ukraine will not lead to escalation, will not harm NATO, but on the contrary will consolidate it and strengthen its geopolitical positions, then it will be good not only for Ukraine, but also for Rutte himself. For him, this will be the important beginning of his tenure: he came and immediately achieved such a decision. Therefore, in general, I think that Rutte’s appearance as Secretary General can play a very positive role for NATO and give new impetus to the Ukrainian direction of the Alliance’s activities.
On new NATO strategy
Now, in fact, there is no NATO strategy as such. There are views of different countries. And Rutte, just like I said, can set the strategic tone. That is, he can try to develop such a strategy with his team. He can, for example, say that it is clear that there are interests of the United States, there are interests of Europe, the strategic autonomy and so on. But we as an Alliance should have some goals, not only some current ones, but also more distant ones. Currently, NATO has a concept developed back in 2010. Therefore, Rutte and his team can try to develop a new strategic concept of the Alliance, which would correspond to the current situation in the world, which is characterized as geopolitical chaos. That is, we are observing the destruction of the model of international relations that was created after the Second World War and after the Cold War. On the one hand, there is the United States, Europe, and on the other, we see the growth of the ambitions of China, the Global South… And NATO, as an organization, must also understand why it is needed. Or maybe it is necessary to diverge and really create some clearer security and defense parameters within the framework of the European Union, and the United States to be separate? Or maybe NATO should still play a role in the future? And the new Alliance strategy developed by Rutte could give answers to these questions.
On changing NATO’s approach to the Black Sea
As for NATO’s approach to the Black Sea, I would not expect any major changes here, because Turkey is against the Alliance strengthening its role in it. Ankara believes that Turkey with its control of the straits is enough and that the United States is superfluous here. Turks see NATO as the United States. If Rutte manages to prove to Turkey that NATO is not only the United States, but, for example, Romania, Bulgaria, the same Turkey, then we will be able to see a different role for NATO in the Black Sea. It would be possible, for example, to expand the functionality of the idea regarding the Black Sea Mine Countermeasure Task Group and give it a more stabilizing role.
Why not create a NATO Black Sea Command? It would not directly affect the interests of Turkey. Moreover, let Turkey play an important role there. That is, there should be a command headquarters that would constantly deal with the Black Sea, have its own intelligence, resources, management system… I am not talking about the creation of a squadron at once. Although this would be a quite logical step, which, again, would not threaten Turkey’s interests in any way. Let only the ships of the Black Sea NATO countries be there. Plus partners: Ukraine or Georgia if they want.
I am not sure that Rutte has an understanding of all this now, because after all, he is a bit from another part of Europe. But, if it is explained to him that NATO should still be present in the Black Sea, because the situation there threatens both the security of specific NATO countries – first of all, Romania and Bulgaria, and the stability of the Alliance itself, he can advocate this issue among the allies. And Ukraine and Romania can and should deal with this explanation to the new General Secretary.
On the impact on individual NATO members
Rutte can try to somehow influence them directly. But can he change their position – the same Orban or Fico? I think he can’t. After all, NATO is a consensus. Here, it is necessary to change the decision-making procedure somehow so as not to depend on the whims of specific politicians. Until that happens, the guys like Orban will use whatever they currently use there.
But, in general, I would not focus now only on Orban or other like him. They are not the main problem now. I still think that Rutte should try to somehow set a new strategic tone in NATO. More understandable for the allies themselves. What does the Alliance want in general: to persuade Ukraine to capitulate, or is it possible to support it as much as possible and force Putin to engage in real negotiations, not ultimatums and on his terms? It seems to me that the second option would be better for Rutte.
On the dependence of the activity of the new Secretary General on the results of the elections in the USA
If Trump wins in the United States, Rutte will have an urgent task to ensure the integrity of NATO. If the Trump administration tries, for example, to raise the question of the withdrawal of the United States or the weakening of its role, then NATO will have to change its configuration. I call it two NATO divisions: the Asia-Pacific region, which will be the responsibility of the United States, and Eurasia, which will be the responsibility of the European division.
And here the NATO Secretary General must play such a coordinating role to prevent the division of NATO, but on the contrary to strengthen it. However, even if there are two divisions, there is still an option in which NATO can be strengthened. This is if the European division will actively develop together with Ukraine. However, a mandatory condition here is the invitation of Ukraine to membership. Then, together with Ukraine, the European division of NATO will be much stronger than just the European members in the current anabiosis and incomprehensible situation. Ukraine will give them constant motivation and incentive for development.