Igor FedykIn the past three years, Bulgaria has held parliamentary elections with such frequency that they have become nearly routine for the nation. Last Sunday marked the seventh vote since 2021. However, the new composition of parliament offers no assurances that this will be the final election. Once again, the outcome of the popular vote has resulted in a situation where establishing a stable government proves to be an exceptionally challenging task.
Endless re-elections
On October 27, Bulgaria held yet another parliamentary election—the seventh in the past three years. The root of this situation lies in the profound divisions among the political forces represented in parliament, which have consistently failed to reach an agreement on a coalition rule. Even when a compromise was achieved, resulting in a stable government, it typically lasted only a short time, as disputes among coalition partners soon resurfaced, leading once again to the dissolution of the legislative body and new elections.
With each new vote, the Bulgarian public has harboured hopes that the elected politicians would manage to overcome their differences and establish a stable government. Because the country is in urgent need of significant reforms, the adoption of the euro, entry into Schengen, etc. And such sentiments are prevalent among Bulgarians after the last election campaign..
Complex configuration of the parliament
The elections were predictably won by the centre-right, pro-European coalition GERB-SDS, which garnered 26.39% of the vote. In second place was the anti-corruption, Euro-Atlantic coalition “We continue the Change -Democratic Bulgaria” (PP-DB), receiving 14.20% support. Slightly trailing in third was the nationalist, pro-Russian party “Revival,” which secured 13.36% of the votes. The fourth position was taken by the “DPS – New Beginning” party (NPS-NB, a faction of the liberal, centrist “Movement for Rights and Freedoms,” controlled by its former leader Delyan Pejevski), with 11.55% of the vote. In fifth place, with 7.57%, was the pro-Russian coalition surrounding the Bulgarian Socialist Party, “BSP – United Left” (BSP-UL). The “Alliance for Rights and Freedoms” (APS, another faction of the “Movement for Rights and Freedoms” led by honorary leader Ahmed Dogan), finished sixth with 7.48% support. The populist party “There is Such a People” (ITN) came in seventh, receiving 6.78% of the vote. The final party to surpass the electoral threshold was the pro-Russian “Mech.”
According to the election results, the new parliament will comprise 69 deputies from GERB-SDS, 37 from PP-DB, 35 from “Revival,” 30 from DPS-NB, 20 from BSP-UL, 19 from APS, 18 from ITN, and 12 from “Mech.” This distribution of seats reflects the retention of a pro-European majority in the 240-seat Bulgarian parliament; however, due to its significant fragmentation and the existing contradictions among potential coalition partners, forming a stable pro-European government will likely prove to be a challenging task.
Coalition negotiations and partner selection
As GERB-SDS received the most voter support, it is the first party tasked with forming a government. However, with only 69 parliamentary mandates, it lacks the ability to govern alone and must seek coalition partners. This presents two significant challenges. Firstly, due to the party’s reputation, which is marred by associations with corruption schemes, leading to mass protests in Bulgaria in 2020 — there are few parties willing to join a coalition with GERB-SDS. Secondly, the fragmentation of the new parliament makes it particularly difficult to establish a pro-government majority, which would require the support of at least three political forces.
Following the elections, GERB leader Boyko Borissov stated that he is open to negotiations with all parliamentary factions, except for “Revival.” Meanwhile, PP-DB remains GERB-SDS’s most desirable partner, as a coalition with them would help restore some of GERB-SDS’s reputation and reinforce its commitment to Euro-Atlanticism.
To rekindle cooperation with PP-DB after their previous rotating government collapsed, Borissov must first address the conditions set by the anti-corruption coalition. PP-DB demands that the future government tackle corruption seriously, be led by a prime minister who doesn’t belong to any of the political parties, and ensure that DPS-NB’s leader Delyan Peevsky, who is sanctioned under the Magnitsky Act, plays no role in it. These stipulations pose significant challenges for the GERB leader, and there is no guarantee he will comply.
On the other hand, despite their stated principles and positions leading up to the elections, PP-DB cannot ignore the fact that over half of Bulgarians support the formation of a government coalition, even if it entails difficult compromises. Therefore, another public disappointment arising from a reluctance to negotiate could have serious repercussions for the anti-corruption coalition.
Consequently, GERB-SDS and PP-DB face challenging rounds of negotiations ahead. If they reach an agreement, they will form the core of the future government majority. However, they will require at least one additional political force to establish a functioning government.
Should GERB-SDS fail to secure a coalition with potential partners and their efforts to form a government fall short, PP-DB will then be the next party to attempt this task. However, it will be even more challenging for the anti-corruption coalition to succeed in this endeavour. Its reluctance to support a government backed by GERB-SDS is likely to result in similar resistance when PP-DB seeks to form a government under its mandate. Without the backing of GERB-SDS, PP-DB’s chances of success are slim — a scenario already witnessed in the previous parliament.
Regarding a third attempt to form a government, the prospects for success would be virtually nonexistent after two failed attempts. By the time the third mandate is presented, parliament would be preparing not for new negotiations but for fresh elections.
Thus, the most viable option for a future government involves a coalition among GERB-SDS, PP-DB, and one or two other political parties. This coalition needs to be established on the first attempt; otherwise, Bulgaria could face another interim government and new elections next spring.