Igor FedykBosnia and Herzegovina is once again shaking up badly. The reason for this is Milorad Dodik the leader of the Serbian entity, who has decided to take his games of separatism to a new level, namely: to move from threats to concrete actions. Given that the Balkans have a reputation as the powder keg of Europe, and Bosnia and Herzegovina is one of its ‘pain spots’, what is happening there today cause serious concern.
Banja Luka vs. Sarajevo and the High Representative
On March 13, the parliament of the Republika Srpska, one of the two state entities on the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina, adopted a draft of a new Constitution. The proposed changes include, in particular, defining this entity as a state of the Serbian people, granting it the right to self-determination and the opportunity to join complex state structures (federation or confederation), creating its own army, abolishing the Chamber of Peoples of the RS and the positions of vice presidents from the two other constitutional peoples (Bosniaks and Croats). However, all this contradicts the Dayton Peace Agreement and the Constitution of BiH, which states that Bosniaks, Croats and Serbs are state-forming peoples throughout the country.
The adoption of the new Constitution’s draft is not the first separatist step by the RS leadership, but only a continuation of the activities it began last month. On February 27, the RS Parliament adopted unconstitutional laws banning the activities of the BiH’s judicial and investigative institutions on the territory of this entity.
And on March 5, RS President Milorad Dodik put them into effect by his decree. On March 7, the Constitutional Court of BiH temporarily suspended the laws, but the President of RS stated that despite this decision, the laws would be implemented. Such actions by Banja Luka are a direct response to the verdict of the First Instance Court of BiH against Milorad Dodik, issued on February, 26. He was sentenced to one year in prison and a six-year ban on political activity for disrespecting the decisions of the High Representative of the International Community in BiH, Christian Schmidt. Later, on March 12, after Milorad Dodik, as well as the Prime Minister of the Republic of RS Radovan Viskovic, and the Speaker of the Parliament Nenad Stevandic, twice ignored summonses to testify before the Prosecutor’s Office of BiH, the latter issued an arrest warrant for them for “violating the constitutional order.”
Criticism of RS leadership’s actions
The actions of the RS leadership, and in particular its President Milorad Dodik, have been met with sharp criticism both from Sarajevo and the international community. The leading Party of Democratic Action in BiH has described Banja Luka’s actions as nothing but an attempt to overthrow the country’s constitutional order. The Office of the High Representative in BiH has stated that the draft of the new RS constitution is a clear violation of the General Framework Agreement for Peace and the Final Award of the Arbitration Tribunal for the Dispute over the Inter-Entity Boundary Line in Brcko Area, and that it fundamentally jeopardizes them.
For his part, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has warned that the actions of the RS leadership threaten the security and stability of BiH and called on partners in the region to unite to confront this “dangerous and destabilizing behavior.” The European Union, on the one hand, called on all political actors in BiH to refrain from provocative rhetoric and actions aimed at division, and on the other hand, decided to strengthen the EUFOR contingent operating on its territory. The first EUFOR reserve units began arriving in BiH on March 11.
In addition, it is worth saying that not everyone in RS is delighted with the actions of its authorities. The local opposition to Milorad Dodik and the ruling SNSD believes that the RS authorities are working to divide BiH and that their actions are a threat to the security of citizens. The lack of support for the actions of the RS leadership from the local opposition is important for the further development of the situation and the overall legitimacy of Banja Luka’s unilateral steps. “It is important that the RS opposition opposes this, because it thus erodes the ‘united front’ and creates an opportunity for a potentially peaceful solution. In addition, it may happen that some political groups that support the ruling majority, but are not its members, may leave it with increasing international pressure,” Igor Novakovic, Senior Associate at the Belgrade-based ISAC Fund noted.
The separatist actions of the authorities are not fully supported by the population of RS either. According to Kateryna Shymkevych, the Head of the Analytical Center for Balkan Studies, a significant part of the republic’s population expresses a desire to live in peace, without secession and the risk of a new war.
The RS authorities are not alone
The RS authorities not only ignore criticism of their actions, but also justify them with a desire to restore justice. According to Milorad Dodik, the decisions of the RS parliament are not aimed at secession, but at “returning to the original Dayton and protecting the constitutional order of BiH.” However, in reality, he is doing quite the contrary. “He wants to return to the so-called original Dayton. But the original Dayton does not stipulate that the Republika Srpska should have sovereignty over its territory. Nevertheless, he is stubbornly going there and thereby violating Dayton,” says Kateryna Shymkevych says.
Despite his separatist activities, which lead to nothing but destabilization of BiH and the Balkan region as a whole, Milorad Dodik still has support from outside. For example, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic believes that the threat to BiH is not the actions of the RS authorities, but the arrest warrant for three of its high-ranking officials, which is something “deeply disturbing, anti-democratic and destabilizing for the region”.
Russia traditionally continues to support the RS leader, calling the court verdict against him “a blow to stability in the Balkans”.
For his part, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has developed quite friendly relations with Milorad Dodik, said that the court verdict is a “political witch-hunt”. Moreover, it recently became known that he even took certain measures to save the RS president. In particular, at the end of February, a unit of the Hungarian special police was sent to Banja Luka, which was supposed to be ready to extradite Milorad Dodik to Hungary in case the court decision against him was tried to be implemented. But the Hungarian plan did not work out: it was revealed and prevented.
What’s next with the RS Constitution and its President
The draft of the new RS Constitution is now going to a 30-day public discussion, after which the local parliament must reconsider it. In order for the amendments to the Constitution to enter into force, they must be supported by a two-thirds majority, that is, at least 56 out of 83 MPs. In addition, they must be supported by a majority both in the Chamber of Peoples of the RS and in the clubs of peoples that are part of this Chamber. However, in the Bosniak club, the coalition formed around the ruling SNSD does not have the necessary majority. However, it is now obvious that for Milorad Dodik this problem is not serious and he has found a way to bypass it. “Now Dodik and his SNSD are trying to use a legally distorted approach and avoid the Chamber of Peoples. They believe that this body was established by the High Representative, and therefore they can ignore it. In their opinion, the only body that can change the Constitution of the RS is its parliament and no one can prevent it,” says Igor Novakovic. As for the vote in parliament, the SNSD and its partners currently have 53 deputies out of the required 56. “In such a situation, the only way for Dodik to pass the parliament is to bribe some of the opposition deputies,” the he explains.
As for Milorad Dodik himself, although he does not recognize the BiH court, he confirmed that he gave his lawyer permission to appeal his sentence. If the case is transferred to the appellate courts, the sentence could take up to six months to become legally binding, during which Dodik can continue to hold the positiion of president of the republic. Even if the appeal is rejected, he will still be able to engage in political activities and lead the SNSD, as the court’s ban does not apply to activities in political parties. This means that he will still be able to remain in politics and have enough tools to continue destabilizing BiH.
According to Igor Novakovic, despite the issuance of an arrest warrant for the President of the RS, the implementation of this decision in practice will be quite a difficult task. According to him, since the RS Parliament has banned the activities of the State Investigation and Protection Agency on the territory of the RS, any attempt to arrest may lead to clashes with the republic’s police. “Such an event may further destabilize BiH and potentially escalate into broader conflicts, possibly involving armed confrontations,” Novakovic says.
Despite the fact that the situation in BiH is quite tense, there are no prerequisites for it to develop into a serious large-scale armed confrontation like the one that took place in the country in the first half of the 1990s. “I believe that there will be no big war. I think that pressure on Dodik will continue so that he calms down and does not destabilize the situation,” says Kateryna Shymkevych. However, whether this pressure will succeed will largely depend on the further actions of the international community, which, in addition to its traditional expression of concern, must do everything possible to extinguish the wick of the powder keg of Europe ignited by the RS leadership.
The full article in Ukrainian you can read here