NGRNAnalysis by Consortium for Defence Information
Space-based capabilities form a critical component of Ukraine’s defence posture, operating in conjunction with missile systems of various ranges and anti-missile defences. These capabilities provide vital support for:
- Targeting, navigation, and communications, enhancing the precision and effectiveness of missile strikes.
- Space-based intelligence and early warning systems, crucial for detecting and intercepting enemy missiles, thereby strengthening anti-missile defences.
The integration of these elements creates a comprehensive defence and offensive architecture where each component relies on the others for operational success.
Strategic Context
By 2025–2026, the Russo-Ukrainian war, which has evolved into a protracted war of attrition since 2023, is expected to continue. Despite significant technological advancements, Ukraine remains at a disadvantage compared to Russia in the fields of strategic weaponry, operational-tactical missile complexes, and space-based systems. The absence of indigenous intelligence, satellite communications, and missile early warning systems forces Ukraine to depend on foreign assistance, posing risks to autonomy and battlefield decision-making.
The balance of power in space remains heavily skewed in Russia’s favour. Moscow possesses a vast military satellite fleet, including reconnaissance satellites (Persona and Bars-M) and electronic intelligence (ELINT) systems (Liana), which provide extensive surveillance, communications, and targeting support. Russia operates approximately 160 active satellites, with around 100 dedicated to military functions. These assets ensure accurate navigation through the GLONASS system and enhance battlefield situational awareness through the Persona series. This capability significantly strengthens Russia’s high-precision weaponry and operational awareness, posing both a tactical and strategic threat to Ukraine by limiting its ability to conduct independent military operations.
Ukraine’s Urgent Space Requirements
Given the continuous strain on Ukraine’s Armed Forces, modernisation and capability expansion in missile armament, missile defence, and space-based support are critical to effective battlefield management. In the coming years, Ukraine must, with the help of its partners and its own efforts, overcome its dependence on foreign reconnaissance assets by developing independent capabilities for:
- Monitoring adversary movements and space activity.
- Assessing the space environment and tracking enemy orbital assets.
- Anticipating threats posed by adversarial space technologies.
- Adapting to near-Earth space conditions for operational planning.
Experts suggest that Ukraine requires an independent constellation of 20-30 ISR and communications satellites, potentially modelled on the Starlink design or a fleet of over 20 ICEYE satellites. This would reduce dependency on Western support while countering Russian ASAT (anti-satellite) threats such as Nudol (tested in 2021) and potential nuclear-capable space assets, as highlighted in the 2024 US intelligence reports.
Institutional Coordination
Currently, Ukraine’s Ministry of Strategic Industries (MinStrategProm) plays a leading role in formulating and implementing industrial and defence policies, including space-related activities. It develops strategic frameworks for space exploration and utilisation, organises domestic and international space activities, and oversees research and development in the sector. Additionally, the State Space Agency of Ukraine (SSAU), under the Cabinet of Ministers, implements national space policy.
Given the evolving threat landscape, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) should assume a coordinating role in defining and developing military space capabilities, as it is the key institution responsible for shaping Ukraine’s defence potential.
Key Priorities for Ukraine’s Military Space Development
In the near term, Ukraine should:
- Establish a real-time space monitoring system to provide timely intelligence to the Armed Forces regarding changes in the space environment and enhance satellite tracking accuracy.
- Deploy a national navigation system covering the entire country to improve precision targeting of enemy assets.
- Enhance military communications through advanced satellite networks, ensuring secure, stable, and uninterrupted battlefield connectivity.
Additionally, specialists advocate for expanding the role and authority of the State Space Agency while fostering international collaboration and technology transfers. The MoD is currently working with the General Staff and SSAU to develop a new national space programme, focusing on military applications while simultaneously advancing the serial production of missile and missile defence systems. This integrated approach would create a unified capability framework for space, missile, and anti-missile systems.
Geopolitical and Industrial Considerations
As international sanctions isolate Russia, the country becomes less attractive for foreign investors, whereas Ukraine is increasingly viewed as a viable partner in the global defence and space industry. A key indicator of this trend was the Defense Tech Innovations Forum in December 2024, organised by the Brave1 government tech cluster under the Ministry of Digital Transformation. This event, the largest in Ukrainian defence technology history, gathered over 3,000 participants from 40 countries, spanning the US, Europe, and the Global South. Foreign experts acknowledged Ukraine’s strong potential in the space domain and its readiness for expanded cooperation.
Ukraine’s growing attractiveness is also reflected in its transformation into a global arms market hub. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Ukraine became the world’s largest importer of major weapons in 2020–24, increasing its imports nearly 100-fold compared to 2015–19. This trend presents new investment opportunities for Ukraine, allowing it to expand its domestic defence industry and space capabilities through a combination of research, defence-technical cooperation, and direct foreign investments.
Structuring Ukraine’s Military Space Sector
As with the acquisition of key weapons systems such as long-range missiles, the Ministry of Defence must define the Armed Forces’ space requirements and initiate partnerships with both domestic and foreign companies within military-technical cooperation frameworks. A crucial aspect of Ukraine’s space sector development is commercialisation, attracting investment from both domestic and international firms.
Ukraine already possesses promising initiatives in the innovation sector. The Sikorsky Challenge, hosted by the National Technical University of Ukraine (Kyiv Polytechnic Institute), has been fostering scientific and technological innovations, including nanosatellite development and drone-guided targeting systems. Similarly, Brave1 has been organising defence tech hackathons since 2023, inspired by DARPA’s military innovation competitions in the US. These initiatives have now extended into the space domain.
A Formal Military Space Structure?
Ukraine may need to establish a dedicated military space command to coordinate its space-based defence initiatives. Russia formed its Aerospace Forces in 2015, while the US and France launched their respective Space Commands in 2019, followed by the UK in 2020. Despite once being among the top five space-faring nations, Ukraine has fallen behind not only Japan but also India and Iran, the latter of which established a space agency in 2004 and has since launched satellites and even biological payloads into orbit.
At the same time, Ukraine has witnessed the emergence of small yet highly specialised defence enterprises with teams of 10-50 personnel, including Alliance “New Energy of Ukraine” and the Association “Technological Forces of Ukraine.” These organisations could be integrated into national space projects and international defence-technical collaborations. Furthermore, state enterprises such as Pivdenne Design Bureau, Pivdenmash, and Pavlohrad Chemical Plant must undergo modernisation to align with contemporary defence needs.
Conclusion
Space is rapidly emerging as the dominant technological domain, surpassing air, land, and sea in its transformative impact on defence capabilities. Ukraine must prioritise space technology to address future security challenges, particularly in anticipation of potential new conflicts following a frozen resolution of the current war. The only viable path to ensuring national security lies in achieving technological superiority across all defence domains.