Mykhailo SamusThe New Geopolitics Research Network participated in a study on predicting the future role of drones. The study was carried out by a team of think tanks consisting of: Adapt Institute (SK), Mam Dron Association (SK), the New Geopolitics Research Network (UA), the Polish Chamber of Unmanned Systems (PL), and the UAV Alliance (CZ).
The project is co-financed by the governments of Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia through Visegrad Grants from the International Visegrad Fund. The mission of the fund is to advance ideas for sustainable regional cooperation in Central Europe. The project is also supported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea.
report examines how drone technologies are transforming the world over the next fifteen years, with a focus on Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Ukraine. Designed as a practical guide primarily for business leaders and policymakers, it provides insights into the profound shifts driven by drone integration.
The report highlights how drones could reshape competitiveness, security, and societal well-being. It presents four alternative scenarios for future development, outlines major risks and opportunities, and offers actionable recommendations to help businesses and policymakers proactively shape a drone-integrated future.
Two key research questions were formulated:
- What needs to be done to unlock the full potential of drone technology in Central Europe?
- How will the development of drone technologies influence the drone industry in the next decade?
Methodology
The report applies a generic foresight framework and should be read as a contribution to drone-related strategic thinking.
The inputs phase included a combination of scoping interviews and an extensive horizon scanning using the PESTLE framework, collecting and analysing signals of potential change across political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental domains. The core of foresight work drew inspiration from the Horizon Foresight Method.
The inputs collected in the initial phase were analysed through cascading, cross-impact analysis and futures wheel. They were further refined through brainstorming in three participatory workshops. A set of key assumptions and critical uncertainties was identified and tested. These findings were synthesized into eight change drivers, representing the primary factors likely to shape the drone ecosystem in the coming years significantly.
Building on these elements, the foresight work developed four prospective scenarios, outlining plausible pathways for the drone sector and their implications for industry, economy and society. These scenarios then served as benchmarks for identifying risks, opportunities, and recommendations.
The foresight research adopted a 15-year time horizon, projecting forward to 2040, with a primary geographic focus on the Visegrad Four countries and Ukraine. The aim was to identify opportunities, risks, and recommendations for these countries.
Drone futures
The report identifies eight drivers of change that can significantly accelerate or disrupt the future development and specifies their strategic consequences – such as security and safety, public perception, legislative complexity and others (to be found in the chapter II). To illustrate possible futures, the report develops four scenarios of drone sector development and its wider impacts over the next 15 years:
- DRONE BONANZA – An optimistic vision where technological advancement fosters integrated, smart societies. Drones become ubiquitous, seamlessly embedded in both urban and rural environments as essential tools across commercial sectors and public services.
- FRAGMENTED SKY – Uneven development leads to regional and international disparities, driven by asymmetrical development, infrastructure gaps, regulatory inconsistencies, economic inequality, and intensifying geopolitical competition.
- REGULATORY NIGHTMARE – A drone ecosystem shaped by strict regulatory measures introduced in response to high-profile incidents, “drone fatigue,” and geopolitical tensions, leading to the formation of exclusive regulatory clusters.
- AUTHORITARIAN TURN – Drone integration into daily life is strictly controlled. They primarily serve state functions and the interests of state-aligned enterprises, resulting in a highly regulated society and extensive surveillance apparatus.