Alliance4EuropeAuthors: Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab), Alliance4Europe, Debunk.org
Contributors: EU DisinfoLab
This report was made possible through the FIMI-ISAC project ‘FIMI Defenders for Election Integrity’ and the Counter Disinformation Network infrastructure. Read more about these below.
Conclusions
This Country Election Risk Assessment (CERA) evaluates Moldova’s vulnerabilities to hybrid threats and Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI) in the context of the September 2025 parliamentary elections. The analysis finds that the overall pre-election risk level is high and rising, driven by intensifying influence campaigns, institutional capacity gaps, and persistent external destabilisation efforts.
The purpose of this assessment is to provide decision-makers, election authorities, civil society, and international partners with an evidence-based overview of systemic weaknesses and election-specific threats, enabling rapid and coordinated mitigation to safeguard electoral integrity. This report makes no determinations on legality.
Looking ahead, three scenarios are plausible. In the best case, disinformation and cyberattacks have a limited impact, diaspora turnout remains stable, and election results are broadly accepted. The base case anticipates heightened polarisation, moderate turnout suppression, and disputes over legitimacy that remain largely contained. The worst case envisions coordinated hybrid attacks triggering confusion, contested results, and prolonged post-election unrest.
Even with strong mitigation measures in place, the risks remain moderate to high due to Moldova’s structural vulnerabilities and Russia’s proven capabilities. Safeguarding Moldova’s elections will require urgent inter-agency coordination, closer engagement with digital platforms, and strengthened civil society monitoring. Transparent communication, rapid response mechanisms, and proactive diaspora outreach will be critical to maintaining public trust and ensuring stability before, during, and after election day.
Moldova-Country-Election-Risk-Assessment-CERA