Intermediate-range Missiles in Europe: Arms Race, Conflict, Deal?

The New Geopolitics Research Network held on-line discussion “Intermediate-range Missiles in Europe: Arms Race, Conflict, Deal?”

Moderator of discussion: Mykhailo Samus, Director, New Geopolitics Research Network

Main speaker: Dr. Yury Fedorov, professor, expert in Russian foreign and security policy, author of the books “Russia between Fascism and Disintegration” and “Hybrid War A La Russe, Russia”.

Discussants:

Amb. Sergiu Celac, Honorary Chairman of the New Strategy Center, Romania

Dr. Tomasz Smura, Director of the Research Office at Casimir Pulaski Foundation, Poland

Dr. Wilfried Jilge, Expert on Eastern Europe and Mediation Adviser Ukraine at the Center for International Peace Operations (ZIF)/Berlin. Associate fellow of German Council on Foreign Relations/DGAP, Germany

Mykola Bielieskov, Research Fellow, National Institute for Strategic Studies, Ukraine.

We bring to your attention a summary of Dr. Yury Fedorov’s (professor, leading international expert on international security issues) speechDeployment of SSC-8 missiles: what will Russia ask for in return?

The main theses:

– Deployment of a long-range hypersonic weapon system by the U.S. Army is expected till 2023. So if these systems are fielded in Europe nearby Russian borders, it will essentially change the balance of military force preventing Moscow from aggression against Baltic States, Georgia and Ukraine.

– The Vertical Launching Systems (MK41 VLS) that are deployed at NATO basis in Europe, mainly in Poland and Romania, strive to cover SSC-8 missiles in the Kaliningrad region.

– Russia’s position not to deploy the SSC-8 missiles at the Kaliningrad region if NATO precludes the deployment of any American intermediate range system doesn’t seem serious, because Moscow proposes to exchange one Russian missile system for 5 or 6 American. It’s the good deal only for Russians.

– Russia may agree with elimination of SSC-8 missiles, but the question is what could be done with other Russian intermediate range weapons, such as “Kinzhal” etc, which are aimed at European targets. And should European states located nearby Russia to refuse weapon that substantially strengthen their warfighting capabilities in exchange with only one Russian system.

-The basic question at the moment not only to discuss a missile question, but how to strengthen the security of the front lying states, including Ukraine.

Watch the full video of the conference “Intermediate-range Missiles in Europe: Arms Race, Conflict, Deal?” (17.03.2021) here: https://youtu.be/rYwsql1ArCM

Yury Fedorov

Professor, Expert in Russian foreign and security policy, author of the books Russia between Fascism and Disintegration and Hybrid War A La Russe

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