NGRNThe New Geopolitics Research Network brings to your attention a summary of Adnan Idrizbegović, independent researcher (BiH) speech, made during online webinar “Geopolitics. 30 Years After. Ukraine and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Own Paths in Geopolitical Turbulence”
Key notes:
– Unfortunately reality is not black or white, it’s gray. Ukraine has a slightly simplistic perception of reality, Russia is neither as hostile to Ukraine, nor are the West and NATO so friendly. Basically they want to keep Ukraine in the position which semantically in old interpretation means “borderland” between two sides.
– Nowadays there is the situation when after destroying the multilateral world and the security architecture built after the Second World War, America is seeking to return back to the comfort zone of a bipolar world. The problem is that the world has changed dramatically. America is not as powerful as it was, as well as NATO, and there are new major players on the scene.
– The problem for Ukraine today is to perceive reality as it is, not as we like it to be. BiH and Ukraine have had a very different experience with western partners and a very ambivalent relation to Europe. At the same time, the experience with the USA is far more positive. While the EU offered BiH the rhetorical support at the beginning of the war, America on the other side started intervention.
– Ukraine lies at an unfortunate place between two empires and both sides intend to create a buffer zone out of it. The only way for Ukraine to avoid serving the interests of other states is to develop a national strategy that will serve Ukrainian interests only.
– Turkey is a potential ally for Ukraine. Due to the internal NATO dynamics, European forces are pushing Turkey out of NATO which creates a window of opportunities where both Ukraine and Turkey will have a very similar strategic position. Turks are a far more reliable partner for Ukraine than the EU will ever become. Problem with the EU is that it’s a very composite structure, it doesn’t have a single will neither in the political field, nor in security. Furthermore, Ukraine can’t rely on international law or international order, because it doesn’t exist anymore.
– Russia intended to keep Ukraine out of European and NATO integration. So Ukrainian’s leadership has to use the time wisely, stabilize the economy, invest in development, try to reach technological advantage of Russians and protect state institutions as well as the justice sector.
Watch the full video of the conference here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FtzuXlruPZ4