The Role of China in the Russian-Ukrainian War – Conference

Yurii Poita’s report to the European China Conference 2023 “Strategic priorities: Creating momentum for an effective European approach to China”, organized by ECFR and MERICS on 16 November 2023, Berlin.

Role of China in the war

The role of China in the Russian-Ukrainian war is significant and huge. Without Chinese economic aid, Russia would not be able to continue financing the war. Second, China’s position is changing from so-called pro-Russian neutrality to a much more pro-Russian position. According to the Yermak-McFaul group’s report, up to 75-80% of the semiconductors used in Russian missiles came from China.

Another importance for China for Russia to continue the war is related to Taiwan. In particular, if there is a constant threat near NATO’s borders, NATO will not be able to allocate many resources to act in the event of a crisis in the Taiwan Strait. Moreover NATO will not be able to fully implement Article 5 of the NATO Treaty if the PLA attacks US forces in the Indo-Pacific region.

Therefore, China’s interest is to maintain Russia as a significant threat to NATO.

Perception in Ukraine

The position of China in Ukraine is perceived negatively. From the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine had considerable illusions that China would be able to help. Kyiv hoped that China would become a guarantor of security, put pressure on Russia, help maintain the grain corridor, help return forcibly deported Ukrainian children, etc. However, no results were achieved with the help of China. Instead, China has significantly increased its support for Russia, and provides technology and dual-use materials that Russia uses in its war against Ukraine.

This led to the realization that China’s position is hostile to Ukraine, and it also changed the perception of China in Ukrainian society. For example, in June 2023, 34% Ukrainians considered China an enemy country (52% – considered China as neutral), while this is twice as much as in October 2022 (18% – considered China an enemy country), and three times more than in December 2021 (12%) .

Therefore, for the European security system, China’s support for Russia plays a significant role and poses serious threats, and the EU should more actively impose sanctions on China for its support to Russia. Otherwise, China will fuel the war for many years.