Yurii Poita on the consequences of the Kyrgyz-Tajik conflict

A few days ago, a border conflict broke out between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which led to the use of armed forces against each other. Military and armored vehicles were deployed to the scene from both sides and began shelling each other’s positions. As a result, several dozen people were killed and several hundred were injured.

The reasons for the conflict are the unresolved issues on the disputed sections of the border between the countries near settlements, Vorukh, Batken, etc .; lack of water resources; transport and logistics problems that are causing clashes between local Kyrgyz and Tajiks in the region.

The trigger for the conflict was a dispute over the point of water distribution – the Tajik side tried to install video cameras to control the distribution of water near the point “Golovnaya” on the river Isfara in the village Kok-Tash of the Batken region of Kyrgyzstan (the Tajik side accuses the Kyrgyz of taking water without permission during irrigation of fields).

At the moment, the situation has relatively stabilized – the parties agreed on a ceasefire, withdrawal of weapons, intensification of the negotiation process on the delimitation and demarcation of the border.

Based on the results, conclusions can be drawn:

First, the activities of regional international organizations, such as the CSTO, CIS, SCO, CICA, have demonstrated their failure and ineffectiveness in preventing and resolving conflict situations.

Both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are members of these organizations.

Second, the potential for conflict in the border regions of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan remains high. At any moment, conflicts can begin between local residents, which can lead to inter-ethnic pogroms and even to an international conflict with the use of regular units.

Third, in the event of a serious escalation of the conflict, Russia can take advantage of this by intervening as a mediator and peacemaker. It can create a military base on the territory of the Batken region of Kyrgyzstan, which will allow Russia to take control of the flow of smuggling and drug trafficking in the region, increase its influence on the leadership of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and create another lever of influence over Uzbekistan.

Yurii Poita

Head of the Asian Section

He has been working as a Head of the Asia-Pacific Section at the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies (Kyiv, Ukraine). Yurii also is a sinologist and member of the National Union of Journalists of Ukraine.

He studied at the Institute of International Relations of the Kyiv International University, the Wuhan Research Institute of Postal and Telecommunications (China), Zhytomyr Military Institute (Ukraine). At the moment Yurii is a PhD candidate at the Al-Farabi Kazakh National University.

He has experience in defense, international journalism, analytics and research.

Research interests: China’s influence in the post-Soviet space, “hybrid” threats to national security, Ukrainian-Chinese relations, the development of the situation in the Asia-Pacific and the Central Asian region.

He took part in a number of expert and scientific discussions in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Israel, China and other countries. He has participated in research projects on the consequences of educational migration to China, interethnic conflicts and the protest potential of Kazakhstan, creation of a new Asian strategy of the MFA of Ukraine, study of Ukraine’s relations with the countries of Central and East Asia.

Speaks Ukrainian, Russian, English and Chinese.

Contact Us
May 2021
Translate »