The experts of NGRN (Mykhailo Samus, Volodymyr Kopchak, Yurii Poita) together with Kazakh colleagues (Rasul Zhumaly, political analyst; Karlygash Ezhenova, editor-in-chief of Exclusive magazine) discussed еthe growing influence of Turkey for the post-Soviet space.
- the Turkish regional project, in contrast to the Russian one, can offer a positive agenda for interested partner countries.
- neither Ukraine nor Kazakhstan will have such a level of alliance with Turkey as Azerbaijan. In case of deepening relations each country will have its own keis of cooperation witn Ankara.
- strengthening self-sufficiency (economic, military etc.) is the guarantor of independence and security for each post-Soviet state. Strengthening its own subjectivity complicates Russian policy in the region.
- Turkey is a multi-vector regional player, each vector is characterized by its own scenario, and depending on situation, it can have features of both cooperation and confrontation.
- Russia’s foreign policy is complex and multilevel, and it shouldn’t be simplified by linking only to particular region and based on common stereotypes.
- the Turkish vector of foreign policy has always been popular in Kazakhstan, although it did not develop due to the Russian factor. However there are already cautious attemps to activate Turkish-Kazakh relations, and Ankara is a promising partner for balancing the influence of Russia and China.
- the development of relations between Kazakhstan and Turkey will not be rapid, it is a long-term process.
- in the context of the growing confrontation between China and the US, China can agree to the military mediation of Russia in Central Asia.
The discussion in Russian is available here:
Part 1 of the discussion is available here.